UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira Picks
When: Saturday, June 28, 2025
Where: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
TV: PPV
The UFC returns to its familiar stomping grounds in Las Vegas at the T-Mobile Arena, featuring a thrilling card headlined by a battle for the vacant 155-pound belt between two former champions in, Ilia Topuria and Charles Oliveira. The unbeaten Topuria is rising up in weight following a successful title-winning run at featherweight. With Islam Makhachev moving up, the man he beat for the belt, Charles Oliveira, jumps in to see if he can do it again. Let’s break it down!
Fight Analysis:
Ilia Topuria, 16-0 (6 KOs, 8 Submissions), (-370) vs. Charles Oliveira, 35-10 (10 KOs, 21 Submissions), (+285)—MMA Odds by Bovada
UFC 317 features a main event for the vacant UFC Lightweight Title between former featherweight champion Ilia Topuria and longtime 155-pound standout and former champ Charles Oliveira. This should be a good fight, with both men having seen their fights not go the distance, a combined 53 out of 61 fights. These two can finish fights, and fans should embrace a tense encounter for the prized 155-pound belt.
This is a battle of young vs. old in a sense. Oliveira is still fighting at a high level and coming off a nice win over Michael Chandler, but he’s 35 and Topuria is the fresher face at 28, undefeated in his career, and coming off a title-winning run at featherweight. Topuria is certainly the real deal, a rising star in this sport trying to win a title in his second weight class. But people might be neglecting Oliveira a little bit.
On one hand, Oliveira is getting up there at 35, an age you don’t typically see fighters winning titles. But he might not be as much yesterday’s news as some think. He lost his title to Islam Makhachev, which there is no shame in doing. Then, in 2024, he lost a narrow split decision to Arman Tsarukyan. Those are his only setbacks going all the way back to 2017, covering a time period where he beat a lot of big names in the lightweight division. With Makhachev having vacated the division, maybe Oliveira can reach the top again. But alas, Topuria is no easy assignment.
Oliveira has been at lightweight for years, but like Topuria, is a former featherweight. Oliveira does have a little size advantage on Topuria, first being a more-acclimated lightweight and also with his length, as he will have 3 inches in height and 5 inches in reach over Topuria. And maybe Oliveira can benefit from these dimensions after some tougher outings against more sizable 155-pounders. But still, Oliveira will need to avoid the finishing power of a guy coming off knockouts over two of the more illustrious featherweights in UFC history—Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski.
There are some stark characteristics in this fight. Topuria has no losses, and Oliveira has ten. Oliveira has a ledger at lightweight that only few can match, while this is Topuria’s first major fight in the weight class. Topuria has fought in the UFC only 8 times, while Oliveira is the UFC record-holder for finishes, as much a veteran as you can find. And he’s still not too old at 35 and at least comes into this in winning form. Over the years, he has added a dimension of striking that translates at the highest levels. Combine that with his ability to snake in a fight-ending submission; he’s unquestionably as dangerous as they come. We have seen him in title fights sealing the deal with choke-submissions over Justin Gaethje and Dustin Poirier.
The fundamental question is whether Oliveira can see his greatness shine against a new generation of greats. We’ve seen him thrive against some of the stalwarts of this division, guys who have been near the top for a while. But with guys like Islam Makhachev and Topuria, is he going to be able to maintain that same edge? Or will history repeat itself as the old move aside for the young and the new? Like Oliveira, Topuria can end fights with nearly equal aplomb, whether it be striking or submissions. Since moving up to the UFC, it has been his striking that has taken center stage, with five KOs with punches in his eight UFC fights and just one submission. But he did start his career with seven straight submission wins, most of them being chokes. While Oliveira has lost only twice in nearly a decade, he is not impervious to being submitted, and 4 of his ten losses were by knockout, though those occurred in 2011, 2012, 2015, and 2017.
The improvements Oliveira has made to his striking notwithstanding, I’m not so sure how well that is going to work for him in this fight. Even during his title run, he would get hit. He’d get dropped. He was able to work through it in a way he might not be able to do against Topuria. We saw Topuria finish Max Holloway with his hands, quite a feat. And when they get in that boxing range, and you combine the leakiness of Oliveira’s defense with Topuria’s textbook form, it suggests a bad outcome for the Brazilian ex-champ.
Topuria’s wrestling and grappling are so good that he won’t be afraid to mix it up with even a legendary submission artist like Oliveira. Topuria has done it with other opponents who were at their best on the mat and had his way with them, leading up to his great striking ability coming through shortly thereafter. There is no relief for Oliveira in this fight, whether on his feet or on the ground.
Oliveira is definitely dangerous, despite this not appearing to be the greatest matchup. I just think the component of him being dangerous is outweighed by too many things to make him any more than a fanciful underdog pick in a fight that seems to be Topuria’s to lose. He’s simply too talented, and Oliveira is not quite as sharp as he once was. Topuria should be able to have the edge wherever this fight goes, with his energy, punching power, and sharpness being a bit much for Oliveira at this point in the veteran’s career.
My Pick to Win: I’m betting on Ilia Topuria to win at -370 betting odds. While the Bovada line at -370 for the favored Topuria seems steep, I’m not sure it quite captures the difficulty of the task Oliveira has in front of him, as I picture a clear win for the versatile Topuria.
