UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O’Malley 2 Picks
When: Saturday, June 7, 2025
Where: Prudential Center, Newark, New Jersey
TV: PPV
by Loot of Predictem.com
Fight Analysis:
UFC 316 from the Prudential Center in Newark features a nice card, headlined by a title fight rematch where UFC Bantamweight Champion Merab Dvalishvili defends his title from the man he won it from—Sean O’Malley. This fight will take place ten months after their first bout—won by Dvalishvili by unanimous decision, with the ex-champion really having a tough night. Can O’Malley find some answers to steer this more in his favor? Or will the reigning champion continue building on what he started in their first fight? Let’s break it down!
Merab Dvalishvili, 19-4 (3 KOs, 1 Submission), (-285) vs. Sean O’Malley, 18-2 (12 KOs, 1 Submission), (+235)
UFC Bantamweight Champion Merab Dvalishvili makes the second defense of his belt against former titleholder Sean O’Malley. On paper, O’Malley has some advantages, being 4 years younger than the 34-year-old champion, with nearly a half-foot in height and reach. And before losing to Dvalishvili, he was on a nice roll, with a long winning streak and wins over some huge names at 135 pounds. But with the win and a successful defense, Dvalishvili now has a dozen straight wins and has added some giant nuggets to his ledger in recent years. In January, he was successful in a difficult title defense against Umar Nurmagomedov, winning a unanimous decision in what was the Fight of the Night.
O’Malley, meanwhile, has not fought since losing his belt. One would figure that could have to do with a torn labrum that O’Malley reportedly came into the ring with in their first fight. And that is one of the things an O’Malley backer might hang his hat on in this fight—the notion that O’Malley wasn’t at 100% for their first bout. He apparently underwent surgery for that following the fight and has had enough time to train with it and make sure he’s a full-go for this battle.
If O’Malley is in better condition physically, you have to like his chances more. He has the great footwork. Combine that with his length and scrambling ability; he’s really a tough guy to fight. And the idea of a marauding Dvalishvili coming straight in on a sniper like O’Malley had some appeal for those who backed the champion in the first fight. However, Dvalishvili flipped the script some, opting for a more-measured approach that seemed to flummox O’Malley, who in turn began pursuing Dvalishvili with abandon. O’Malley began over-extending and feeding right into the Dvalishvili’s hands, as he was taken down.
Dvalishvili was able to win the tactical battle in the first fight, at least showing he is more capable in making the stylistic choices that put him in the best position to win. O’Malley, meanwhile, seemed a bit lost once it became clear that Dvalishvili wasn’t going to rush in as he suspected he might. So what happens this time around? I can’t imagine Dvalishvili changing his tactics and opting for a “fools rush in” tactic that feeds into O’Malley’s hands. Conversely, I’d expect O’Malley to not start pushing the issue and over-extending while too feverishly pursuing a fight. Fans might have to brace for a fight that is heavy on tactical acumen and not so much on entertainment. Dvalishvili isn’t going to let himself be cannon fodder for the accurate strikes of O’Malley. But the ex-champ doesn’t want to start reaching and lose the battle for his hips as he did the first time.
While a dull fight might be in the offing, I don’t think that buries the chances of O’Malley. If he can circle and not over-extend and avoid playing Dvalishvili’s game, he might force the champion’s hand. And it’s not as if O’Malley had nothing going for him in that first fight. He only lost by a round on two scorecards and in the fifth, we saw him start zinging in body kicks that Dvalishvili didn’t seem able to defend that were hurting him a little bit. If the champion decides to employ the same tactics he did in the first fight, I imagine O’Malley would have a better response for it this time around. Otherwise, I’d expect O’Malley to approach this more like he did in his win against Aljamain Sterling, a stablemate of Dvalishvili. And in that fight, job number one was to not get taken down.
At the same time, the loser of the first fight isn’t the only one allowed to make adjustments for the rematch. Dvalishvili works with a heady group, and certainly, anything that occurs to us has crossed their minds multiple times. And the first fight already showed that one might be within their rights to feel Dvalishvili and his team are more adept tactically on some levels. And I’d imagine Merab’s team would also address the body kick issue, which almost made for a really big problem in the final round.
Still, at +235, the value-play here might be O’Malley. He had almost nothing go right in the first fight and still was close on the cards. Not that fighting Dvalishvili isn’t a draining and punishing proposition, but at this level and with only 4 of his 23 fights ending inside the distance, he’s not going to stop O’Malley. That gives the former champion a 25-minute window to make something happen. He’s already prepared if Dvalishvili is more aggressive and should have better tactics in the event that he’s not more aggressive in the rematch. Either way, I can easily see O’Malley doing what it takes to edge this one out on a decision. I’ll take O’Malley in this one.
My Pick to Win: I’m betting on Sean O’Malley to win at +235 betting odds. While completely flummoxed in their first fight, he wasn’t that far off. Add some better health with his shoulder issue being resolved, along with some better tactics and a greater familiarity with what he’s up against; he should have a chance that exceeds his betting line.
