There are many reasons for line movement in NFL point spreads. These reasons include but are not limited to: injuries to key player(s), one sided action in which the bookies need to move the line in order to make an attempt at receiving balanced action, smart money (wiseguy plays), changes in weather and more. Just because a line moves, doesn’t mean that it’s a game worth betting on. That’s where we come in. We pick these games apart, determine if there’s value and then either pounce or pass on it. As you can see from looking at our past results (5 straight profitable seasons), our formula for picking these games is a big moneymaker.
Be sure to bookmark this page and check back often as line movement can happen at any given time! This can be great info to help you put your finger on a winner or steer you clear of a dead money play you may have been considering.
Note: This page is usually updated very late in the week (Saturday LATE) and line move plays can come in as late as minutes prior to gametime. It’s highly recommended that you check this page multiple times per week so that you don’t miss out on any of these golden picks! There are many line moves each week. We only post the ones that we believe have merit and offer betting value.
THAT PROCESS CREDIT CARDS! MYBOOKIE
Championship Games: The Minnesota Vikings/Philadelphia Eagles game opened with the Vikes as a -3.5 road fav. The line has since dropped a half point to -3. The Eagles are receiving a ton of action. We believe the Philly offense is inept and won’t score over 14 points in this game. We project the Vikings with a solid floor of 17 points. The game may very well end up a push, but the risk is very minimal here.
Championship Weekend Picks: Minnesota Vikings -3 (lost 7-38).
Divisional Playoffs: (1/13 through 1/14) The Minnesota Vikings opened as -3.5 home favs vs. N.O. The line has since moved up to -5 despite only 38% backing the Vikes. (Pushed)
Wildcard Weekend: (1/6 through 1/7) The Jacksonville Jaguars opened as -7.5 home favs vs. Buffalo. The line has gone up to -8.5 and even higher at some offshores, all despite the Jags only receiving 43% of the action. It would not surprise me one bit if the Bills get shutout in this game.
Super Bowl: The SB line opened with NE as -5 faves. The line has bounced around a bit and looks to be around -4.5 at kickoff. We’re fading the public opinion and riding NE at -4.5.
Wildcard Weekend NFL Line Move Action: Jacksonville Jaguars -8.5 ***2 UNIT TOP PLAY ALERT*** (2.2 units to win 2 units)(lost 10-3).
Week 17: (12/31) The Denver Broncos opened as -3.5 home favs vs. KC. The line has crossed the key number (common final score margin) of 4 to 4.5 despite only 32% backing the Broncos. KC is expected to sit numerous key players are both sides of the ball. The Miami Dolphins opened as +3 home dogs vs. Buffalo. It’s rare to see a home dog come off the 3, especially when the public is hitting the other side. Buffalo’s run D is atrocious and they’re likely to see 35+ carries from what has recently become a formidable rushing attack behind K. Drake and Co. The real reason Buffalo has very little chance of winning this game however lies with their Coach, Sean McDermott, who is undoubtedly one of the worst head coaches the NFL has seen in many moons. The Atlanta Falcons opened up as -3 home favs to Carolina. The line has gone up to -4 despite only 43% backing the Dirty Birds. Expect Julio Jones to shred Carolina’s zone defense in a must win game.
Week 17 NFL Line Move Plays: Den -4.5 (32%)(lost 24-27), Mia +2.5 (39%)(lost 16-22), Atl -4 (42%)(won 22-10).
Week 16: (12/23 through 12/25) The Denver Broncos opened as +4 road dogs at Washington. The line has since dropped to +3 despite a paltry 32% backing Denver.
Week 16 NFL Line Move Plays: Broncos +3 (lost 11-27).
Week 15: (12/14 through 12/18) The Chicago Bears opened as +7 road dogs at Detroit. The line has since dropped to +5 despite only 35% betting Da Bears. Chi should be able to run all over a pourus Detroit run D. The Minnesota Vikings opened as -10 home favs vs. Cinci. The line has moved to -10.5 and should be more like -17.5 because Cinci has a TON of injuries and STINK.
Week 15 Line Move Bets: Chi +5 (lost 10-20), Min -10.5 (victory! 34-7).
Week 14: (12/7 through 12/11) The Cleveland Browns opened as +3.5 home dogs to GB. The line has since moved down to +2.5 despite a paltry 28% backing them. The Arizona Cardinals opened up as +3.5 home underdogs to Tennessee. The line has moved down to +2.5 despite only 40% playing Arizona. The NYG opened as +6 home underdogs vs. Dallas. The line has since moved all the way down to +3.5 with only 37% backing the G-Men. The Miami Dolphins opened as +12 home dogs to New England. The line has dropped to +10.5 despite only 38% betting the Phins. Between this being a division game and the Pats missing a TON of players, we expect the Dolphins to be very competitive tonight and keep this game within the number.
Week 14 NFL Line Move Plays: Cle +2.5 (lost 21-26), Az +2.5 (won 12-7), NYG +3.5 (lost 10-30), Mia +10.5 (won 27-20).
Week 13: (11/30 through 12/4) The New York Jets opened as +5 home dogs to KC. The line has since dropped to +3 despite only 40% backing the J-E-T-S. Cincinnati opened up as +5.5 home dogs to Pittsburgh. The line has since dropped to +4.5 despite only 33% backing the Bengals.
Week 13 NFL Line Move Plays: NYJ +3 (won 38-21), Cinci +4.5 (won 20-23).
Week 12: (11/23 through 11/27) The Indianapolis Colts opened as +4.5 home underdogs to Tennessee. The line has dropped to +3 despite a paltry 34% backing Indy. The Niners opened up as touchdown home dogs to Seattle. The line has dropped to +6.5 despite only 29% backing SF.
Week 12 NFL Line Move Plays: Indy +3 (lost 16-20), SF +6.5 (lost 13-24).
Week 11: (11/16 through 11/20) The Minnesota Vikings opened as -1.5 home favs vs. the Rams. The line has since moved to -2.5 despite only 43% backing Minny. The Houston Texans opened as +1.5 home dogs to Az. The line has crossed zero with Hou now laying -2.5. The Cleveland Browns opened as +8.5 home dogs to Jax. The line has dropped to +7 despite only 38% wagering on the Browns.
Week 11 NFL Line Move Plays: Min -2.5 (won 24-7), Hou -2.5 (win 31-21), Cle +7 (lost 7-19).
Week 10: (11/9 through 11/13) We ran out of time and weren’t able to post this week. Our apologies!
Week 9: (11/2 through 11/6) The Baltimore Ravens opened as +4 road dogs at Ten. The line has since dropped to +3.5 despite only 38% backing the Ravens. The Dallas Cowboys opened at a pick’em vs. KC. The line has moved to Dal -2.5 despite only 40% backing the Cowboys.
Week 9 NFL Line Move Plays: Balt +3.5 (won 20-23), Dal -2.5 (won 28-17).
Week 8: (10/26 through 10/30) The Seattle Seahawks opened as -6 home favorites against Houston. The line has gone up to -6.5 despite more than half of the betting public wagering on the Texans. The Cincinnati Bengals opened up as 10 point home favs to Indy. The line has gone up to -105 despite more than half betting on an Indy team that is using multiple 2nd and 3rd stringers on defense.
Week 8 NFL Line Move Plays: Sea -6.5 (lost 41-38), Cinci -10.5 (lost 24-23).
Week 7: (10/19 through 10/23) The Chicago Bears opened as +4 home favorites against the Carolina Panthers. The line has since dropped a point to +3 despite only 26% backing Da Bears. The loss of LB Luke Kuechly is devastating to the Panther D and we expect Jordan Howard to run all over them.
Week 7 Line Move Bet: Chicago Bears +3 (won 17-3).
Week 6: (10/12 through 10/16) The Chicago Bears opened as +7 road dogs and have bumped down to +6.5 despite only 39% backing them. The Ravens have injuries to key offensive/defensive line positions so the Bears run game should be effective today. The Pittsburgh Steelers opened as +4 road dogs at KC. The line has gone down to +3.5 despite only 38% betting on the Steelers. The New Orleans Saints opened as -3 home favorites vs. the Detroit Lions. The line has since gone up to -4 despite only 38% betting on the Saints.
Week 6 NFL Line Move Plays: Bears +6.5 (winner 27-24). Steelers +3.5 (won 19-13, Saints -4 (won 52-38)
Week 5: (10/5 through 10/9) The Cincinnati Bengals opened up as -2.5 home favs vs. the Bills. The line has jumped to -3 despite only 39% betting Cinci. The SF/Indy game opened with a total of 43. The line has gone up to 44.5 despite only 37% betting the OVER.
Week 5 NFL LIne Move Plays Cinci -3 (winner 20-16), 49ers/Colts OVER 44.5 (won 23-26).
Week 4: (9/28 through 10/2) Passed.
Week 3: (9/21 through 9/25) The Chicago Bears opened as +8 home dogs to Pittsburgh. The line has since dropped a half point to a point (depending on where you look) despite hardly anybody betting on Chicago. The Arizona Cardinals opened up as +3.5 home dogs to Dallas. The line has dropped to +3 despite only 41% backing AZ.
Week 3 Line Move Plays: Bears +7.5 (won 23-17), Arizona Cardinals +3 (-120)(lost 17-28).
Week 2: (9/14 through 9/18) The Chicago Bears opened as +6.5 underdogs at TB. The line has gone up to +6.5. This is public money pushing the line up. Notice how it didn’t go to seven. This is a huge indication that the books like their position. The Bears are much improved despite what you read in magazines and hear on the major sports networks. Chicago is proficient at taking away the other teams top receiver and stuffing the run. We expect a low scoring affair with the Bears keeping it close.
Week 2 NFL Line Move Plays: Chi +6.5 (lost 7-29).
Week 1: (9/7 through 9/11) The Chicago Bears opened up as +7 home underdogs vs. the Atlanta Falcons. The line has since dropped to +6 despite Da Bears only receiving a paltry 27% at the betting window. The Tennessee Titans opened up as +1 home underdogs vs. Oakland. The line has moved 4 points, now making the Titans a -3 favorite, despite only 40% betting on Tenn. The Raiders secondary is banged up and the Marshawn Lynch hype is likely overrated. Look for Tennessee to win in a very high scoring game.
Week 1 Line Move Plays: Bears +6 (pushed 17-23), Titans -3 (lost 16-26).
Previous Season’s
Super Bowl: No movement.
Conference Chamnpionships: (1/22) The Falcons had a 2 point move from 4 to 6 but we can’t bite on this game because it wouldn’t be prudent to go up against a QB as hot as Aaron Rodgers. We generally don’t let emotion/gut feel to come into play, but this guy does things that are off the charts so it’s best just to pass.
Divisional Playoffs: (1/14 through 1/15) The KC Chiefs opened up as +1 home underdogs to the Steelers. The line has moved to KC -1.5 despite only 40+% backing KC. Ben Roethlisberger is banged up, Pitt’s road splits are horrible and Arrowhead is a brutal place to play.
Divisional Playoffs Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 (lost 16-18)
Wildcard Weekend: (1/7 through 1/8) Passing.
Week 17: (1/1) The Tennessee Titans opened as -3 home favs vs. the Houston Texans. The line has gone up to -4 despite only 41% backing Tenn. The Washington Redskins opened as -5 home favs vs. the NYG. The line has gone up to -7.5 despite only 34% backing them. NYG essentially has nothing to play for and it’s expected that they’ll rest starters. The Philadelphia Eagles opened as +2 home favs and have moved to -5.5 despite only 40% or less betting them. Dallas is said to be resting a ton of players including their OL.
Week 17 NFL Line Move Plays: Titans -4 (won 24-17), Redskins -7.5 (lost 10-19), Eagles -5.5 (won 27-13)
Week 16: (12/22 through 12/26) The Philadelphia Eagles opened as +3 home underdogs to the NYG. The line has dropped and crossed zero with the Eagles now -1 favs, despite only 29% picking the Eagles. The Cleveland Browns opened as +6.5 home underdogs vs. SD. The line has dropped 2.5 points to +4 despite only 1/3 of all bettors backing the Browns. The Indianapolis Colts opened as +4 road dogs at Oakland. The line has dropped a half point to +3.5 despite only 42% backing Indy. The LA Rams opened as -3 home favs. vs. SF. The line has gone up to -4.5 because the Niners on the road are that mountain of multi-colored slop you see when you look down while blowing a whiz when you’re in an outhouse at your kids little league game.
Week 16 Line Move Picks: Philly -1 (won 24-19), Browns +4 (won 20-17), Colts +3.5 (lost 25-33), Rams -4.5 (lost 21-22).
Week 15: (12/15 through 12/19) The Jets opened as +3 home favs to Miami and have dropped to +2.5 on gameday, despite only 35% backing them. The Bolts opened up as +3 home underdogs to Oak. The line has since dropped down to +2.5 despite a paltry 29% backing the Chargers.
Week 15 NFL Line Move Plays: Jets +2.5 (lost 13-34), SD +2.5 (lost 16-19).
Week 14: (12/8 through 12/12) None this week.
Week 13: (12/1 through 12/5) The Jacksonville Jaguars opened up as +4 home underdogs to Denver. The line has dropped to +3.5 despite only 30% backing the Jags. The Cincinnati Bengals opened up as +1.5 home dogs to Philly. The line has moved to Cinci -1.5 despite 45% backing the Bengals.
Week 13 NFL Line Move Picks: Jags +3.5 (lost 10-20), Bengals -1.5 (won 32-14).
Week 12: (11/24 through 11/28) The Minnesota Vikings opened as +2.5 road underdogs at Detroit. The line has dropped to +1 despite only 44% backing Minny. More posted by late Sat. night. The Titans/Bears total opened at 45 and has dropped to 42 despite only 40% backing the under.
Week 12 NFL Line Move Plays: Vikings +1 (lost 13-16), Ten/Chi UNDER 42 (lost 27-21).
Week 11: (11/17 through 11/21) The Cleveland Browns opened as +10 home dogs to Pitt. The line has dropped to +8.5 despite only 28% backing the Browns. The Minnesota Vikings opened as a pick’em at home vs. AZ. The line has moved up to -2 despite 42% taking the Vikings.
Week 11 NFL LIne Move Plays: Browns +8.5 (lost 9-24) and Vikings -2 (won 30-24).
Week 10: (11/10 through 11/14)
The Jacksonville Jaguars opened as +1.5 home underdogs. The line has shot up to -2.5, making the Jags the favorite now, despite only 35% playing the Jags. The L.A. Rams opened as +2.5 road dogs at the NYJ. The line has moved down to Rams +1 despite a meager 38% backing the Rams. The Rams are getting healthy and are better on both sides of the ball. The Tennessee Titans opened as +3 home dogs vs. GB. The line has made a huge drop to +2.5 despite only 28% on the Titans. While the move is only a half point, it takes a TON of umph to get an NFL spread off the 3, as that is the most common final score margin in football. The Packers’ defense is a mess and the Titans should actually be favored here. The Chicago Bears opened up as a pick’em at TB. The line has shot up to Bears -2.5 despite only 37% of the cash being on Da Bears.
Week 11: (11/17 through 11/21) Posted by late Saturday night.
Week 10 NFL Line Move Plays: Jacksonville -2.5 (lost 21-24), Titans +2.5 (won 47-25), Bears -2.5 (lost 10-36).
Week 9 (11/3 through 11/7) The Oakland Raiders opened up as a pick’em at home vs. the Broncos. The line has made a slight move up to -1 despite the public siding with Denver.
Week 9 NFL Line Move Plays: Raiders -1 (win 30-20)
Week 8: (10/27 through 10/31) The Cleveland Browns opened up as +4.5 home underdogs to the NYJ. The line has since dropped to +2 despite only 40% hitting the Browns. The Chicago Bears opened up as +6 home underdogs vs. the Vikings. The line has since dropped to +4.5 despite only 22% backing them.
Week 8 NFL Line Move Picks: Browns +2 (lost 14-30), Bears +4.5 (won 20-10).
Week 7: (10/20 through 10/24) The Miami Dolphins opened as +3 home underdogs to the Buffalo Bills. The line has dropped to +2.5 despite only 36% betting the Phins. This is especially alarming as numbers rarely cross through the key number of 3 with a non public team. The SF 49ers opened as +2.5 home underdogs to TB. The line has moved 3.5 points now making the Niners a -1 fav, despite only 41% betting them.
Week 7 NFL Line Move Plays: Miami Dolphins +3 (1/2 pt buy -135)(won 28-25), San Francisco 49ers -1 (lost 17-34)
Week 6: (10/13 through 10/17) The Kansas City Chiefs opened as +1.5 road dogs at Oakland. The line has since moved 3 points making KC the fav. now by 1.5. All this despite the Chiefs only receiving 40% of the pubic’s backing.
Week 6 NFL Line Move Plays: KC Chiefs -1.5 (won 30-16).
Week 5: (10/6 through 10/10) The Buffalo Bills opened as +2.5 underdogs at the Rams. The line has since dropped 3.5 points, with the Bills now a -1 point favorte. The game is receiving equal action at the windows, however, many sharps like the Bills. The Rams are expected to be missing multiple defensive linemen for this game.
Week 5 NFL Line Move Plays: Bills -1 (won 30-19).
Week 4: (9/29 through 10/3) The San Francisco 49ers opened as +3 home dogs to Dallas. The line has dropped to +2.5 despite a paltry 31% backing the Niners.
Week 4 NFL Line Move Picks: Niners +2.5 (lost 17-24).
Week 3: (9/22 through 9/26) The Los Angeles Rams opened up as +3.5 road dogs at TB. The line has jetted up to +6. Public money is driving this line. The Rams match up well here and TB is NOT a good team. The Atlanta Falcons opened as +3 road underdogs at New Orleans. The line has dropped to +2.5 despite only 35% backing the Dirty Birds. Historically, the Saints have been a very strong home team with Drew Brees at the helm. The team is currently loaded with injuries to key players, many of which positions the Falcons are strong. Bad matchup for the Saints.
Week 3 NFL Line Move Plays: Rams +6 (won 37-32) and Altanta Falcons +2.5 (won 45-32).
Week 2: (9/15 through 9/19) The Minnesota Vikings opened up as +2.5 home underdogs to the Packers. The line has since dropped to +1.5 despite a paltry 27% backing the Vikes.
Week 2 NFL Line Move Picks: Vikings +1.5 (won 14-17).
Week 1: (9/8 through 9/12) The Tampa Bay Buccaneers opened up as +3 road underdogs at Atlanta. The line has since dropped to +2.5 despite the Bucs only receiving 39% of the action. The Giants/Cowboys game total opened at 49 and has dropped to 46.5 despite only 41% of the bets coming in on the UNDER.
Week 1 NFL Line Move Plays: TB +2.5 (won 31-24), Giants/Cowboys UNDER 46.5 (won 20-19).
Wildcard Weekend: (1/9 through 1/10) The Washington Redskins opened up as a pick’em at home vs. GB. The line has gone up to -1. The game is receiving even action. The Cincinnati Bengals opened up as +2.5 home dogs to Pitt. The line has gone up to -3 based on heavy public action on Pitt, but we’re fading that, as we believe the Steelers lose this game straight up. Bet the Bengals fast if you like this game, because it wouldn’t surprise us a bit to see this line drop again close to kickoff.
Wildcard Weekend Line Move Plays: Washington Redskins -1 (pending) and Cincinnati Bengals +3 (pending).
Week 17: (1/3) The Dallas Cowboys opened up as -1 home favs. vs. Washington. The line has gone up to -4 despite only 34% backing the Pokes. The Skins are expected to rest starters for a majority of the game as they can’t help or hurt their playoff position.
Week 17 NFL Line Move Plays: Dallas Cowboys -4 (lost 23-34).
Week 16: (12/24 through 12/28) The Atlanta Falcons opened as +7 home underdogs to Carolina. The line has dropped to 6.5 at some books despite the Dirty Birds only receiving 39% of the action.
Week 16 NFL Line Move Plays: Falcons +6.5 (won 20-13).
Week 15: (12/17 through 12/21) The Indianapolis Colts opened as -1 favorites at home vs. Houston. The line has gone up to -2 despite only 30% backing the Colts. The Detroit Lions opened as +3 road dogs at N.O. The line has since dropped to +2.5 despite only 30% backing Det. The Baltimore Ravens opened up as +7 home dogs to KC. The line has since dropped to +6.5 despite only 34% backing the Ravens.
Week 15 Line Move Plays: Colts -2 (lost 10-16), Ravens +6.5 (lost 14-34) and Lions +2.5 (won 35-27).
Week 14: (12/10 through 12/14) No plays qualified this week so we’re taking a pass.
Week 13: (12/3 through 12/7) The Chiefs/Raiders total opened at 44 and has moved up to 44.5 despite only 40% playing the over.
Week 13 NFL Line Move Plays: Chiefs/Raiders OVER 44.5 (won 34-20).
Week 12: (11/26 through 11/30) The Tennessee Titans opened as +2 home underdogs to Oakland. The line has gone down to +1 despite only 35% backing Tenn. The Baltimore Ravens opened up as +1 underdogs at Cleveland. The line has moved up to +4.5. Both teams have multiple injuries to key players. Balt. has dominated this matchup in past years winning 4 out of the last 5 straight up. Furthermore, the Browns have scored 10 or less points in 3 out of their last 4 games. We really like the Ravens here as +4.5 covers 2 key numbers (3,4). For those not aware, key numbers are common final score margins.
Week 12 NFL Line Move Plays: Tennessee Titans +1 (lost) and Baltimore Ravens +4.5 (won).
Week 11: (11/19 through 11/23) The Raiders/Lions game opened as a pick’em and the line has moved to Det. -1 despite only 39% backing the Lions.
Week 11 NFL Line Move Plays: Detroit Lions -1 (win).
Week 10: (11/12 through 11/16) The Titans opened up as +6 home underdogs. The line has dropped to +4 despite only 35% backing Tenn. Look for a similar result as the recent Falcons/Niners game. The Washington Redskins opened up as +1 home underdogs. The line has flip flopped to Wash. -1 despite only 38% backing the Skins. N.O. simply isn’t the same team on the road. The Jacksonville Jaguars opened up as +6 road dogs at Baltimore. The line has dropped ot +4.5. The Jags are playing much better ball and should be able to move the chains vs. a horrid Ravens secondary.
Week 10 NFL LIne Move Plays: Ten +4 (loss), Wash -1 (win) and Jax +4.5 (win).
Week 9: (11/5 through 11/9) As of late Saturday night, no plays qualified for this week.
Week 8: (10/29 through 11/2) The Chicago Bears opnened as +2.5 home dogs against Minnesota. The line has dropped to Chi +1 despite only 38% backing them. The Dallas Cowboys opened up as +6 home underdogs to the Seattle Seahawks. The line has since dropped to +4.5 despite only 34% backing the Pokes.
Week 8 NFL Line Move Plays: Chi +1 (loss) and Dal +4.5 (win).
Week 7: (10/22 through 10/26) The Oakland Raiders opened up as +5.5 road dogs at SD. The line has gone down to +3.5 despite only 37% backing Oak. The N.O. Saints opened as +5.5 road underdogs. The line has gone down to 4.5 despite only 43% backing the Saints. The KC Chiefs opened at -2. The line has gone up to -3 despite receiving a paltry 35% of the action. The Dallas Cowboys opened as +6 road dogs at the NYG. The line has dropped all the way to +3 despite the Pokes only receiving 39% of the action.
Week 7 NFL Line Move Plays: Raiders +3.5 (win), Saints +4.5 (win), Chiefs -3 (win), Cowboys +3 (loss).
Week 6: (10/15 through 10/19) We’re fading a small line move this week in the SD/GB game where the total opened at 50 and has gone up to 50.5. The public is driving this move as the majority are hammering the over. The Chargers offensive line is a MESS. They should struggle to score the ball all day long. We really like the under here.
Week 6 NFL Line Move Plays: San Diego/Green Bay UNDER 50.5 (win).
Week 5: (10/8 through 10/12) The Tennessee Titans opened up as +3 home underdogs to Buffalo. The line has since dropped to +1 despite the Titans only receiving 34% of the action at the windows. The Philadelphia Eagles opened at -5 and have moved up to -5 despite only 43% backing them.
Week 5 NFL Line Move Plays: Titans +1 (push) and Eagles -6 (win).
Week 4: (10/1 through 10/5) The NYJ opened as +1 underdogs vs. Mia in London. The line has moved 3 points, now making the Jets -2 favs. Rumors are swirling that Joe Philbin will be fired if the Phins lose this game. Other rumos have some Dolphins players giving up on their coach. One has to question what kind of effort they’ll come out with. Hopefully New York doesn’t have J-E-T-lag. Ha Ha. We’re not funny, we know. It’s been raining all week in Washington, making the league’s worst field a disaster. The over/under opened at 48. Look for both teams to run the ball more which should eat up enough clock for us to sneak in with the UNDER 44.
Week 4 NFL Line Move Plays: Jets -2 (win), Phi/Wash UNDER 44 (win).
Week 3: (9/24 through 9/28) The Buffalo Bills opened as +3 underdogs at Miami. The line has dropped to +2.5. The Phins have multiple injuries to multiple key positions.
Week 3 Line Move Plays: Bills +2.5 (win).
Week 2: (9/17 through 9/21) The Buffalo Bills opened as +1.5 home dogs to NE. The line has dropped to a picke’m despite only 43% backing Buff. NE has offensive line issues and could get torn up by this nasty Bills OL. Furthermore, NE, can’t stop the run. Nice matchup here. The Seattle Seahawks opened as +3.5 road dogs @ GB. The line has dropped to +3 despite only 40% backing the Pack. GB has issues on both the offensive and defensive line. The Chicago Bears opened up as +2 home dogs vs. AZ. The line has dropped to +1.5 despite only 34% backing Cutler and crew. This game may very well come down to who has the ball last, however, there is value here with Chicago as AZ never seems to play up to their potential while on the road.
Week 2 NFL Line Move Plays: Bills at a pick (loss), Seahawks +3 (loss), Bears +1.5 (loss).
Week 1: (9/10 through 9/14) We usually only post line moves here where a line is dropping when the public is on the other side. Since we don’t have any of those plays that qualify this week, we’ll post a move we’re fading. The Seattle Seahawks opened up as -3 point road favs at St. Louis. The line has since gone to -4, which is all public money. The Seahawks will be a good team at some point this year but we’re forecasting them to struggle this week vs. a strong defense. The Seahawks are also missing key players on both sides of the ball.
Week 1 Line Move Plays: St. Louis Rams +4 (win).
Conference Championships: (1/19) The Seattle Seahawks opened as -7 favs at home vs. Gren Bay. The line has gone up to -7.5 despite only 36 percent of the public backing the Hawks.
Conference Championships Line Move Plays: Seahawks -7.5 (loss)
Divisional Playoffs: We aren’t backing any of the line moves this week.
Wildcard Weekend: The Cincinnati Bengals opened up as +4 underdogs on the road at Indy. The line has dropped to +3.5 and even +3 at some books, despite only 38% backing Cinci.
Wildcard Weekend Line Move Picks: Bengals +3.5 (loss).
Week 17 NFL Line Move Plays: The Tennessee Titans opened up as +7.5 home dogs vs. the Colts. The line has dropped down to +7 at some books despite only 28% backing Tenn. The idea here is that the Colts don’t have anything to play for as their playoff position is already locked in. As bad as the Titans are, they should be able to hold up o.k. playing against most of Indy’s 2nd string for most of the game.
Week 17 NFL Line Move Picks: Titans +7 (loss).
Week 16: (12/18 through 12/22) Passed.
Week 15: (12/11 through 12/15) The Cleveland Browns opened up as +2.5 home underdogs to Cinci. The line has since moved 4 points making the Browns a -1.5 fav, despite only 44% backing the Browns.
Week 15 NFL Line Move Plays: Browns -1.5 (loss).
Week 14: (12/4 through 12/8) The Colts/Browns game opened up at Indy -3.5 and has come down to +3 despite only 27% backing the Browns.
Week 14 NFL Line Move Plays: Cleveland Browns +3 (win).
Week 13: (11/27 through 12/1) We couldn’t find any line move plays that we liked so are passing.
Week 12: (11/20 through 11/24) We’re not riding any picks that had line moves this week. See you next weekend!
Week 11: (11/13 through 11/17) The Buffalo Bills opened up as +5 road underdogs at Miami. The line went up to -6 and has bounced back down to +4 despite only 45% backing the Bills. Miami has some key injuries and the Bills always play the Phins tough. Good value here! More posted by late Saturday night. The Minnesota Vikings opened up as +3 road dogs at Chicago. The line has been bet down to +2.5 despite only 39% backing the Vikings. The Bears are having issues protecting Jay Cutler. Their secondary is absolute crap as well. We like the Vikings to win the game straight up by more than a touchdown. This is a great play for those who dare to bet pleasers. The KC Chiefs opened up as +1 home dogs to Seattle. The line has moved 2.5 points to make the Chiefs a -1.5 fav. The game is receiving even action on both sides. I’m not convinced that Hawks are the same team away from Seattle. Furthermore, Arrowhead is one of the best homefield advantages in the NFL. In fact, it’s very similar to Qwest Field; it’s loud as hell! As time goes on, it’s becoming very apparent that Wilson’s receivers are struggling to get separation from the secondary. This leads to Wilson running the ball more. This is a bad spot for him to execute that style of play as it plays right into the Chiefs strengths. Seattle is horrible at covering tight ends. Look for Kelce to have a big day in a game that will likely be very low scoring and close throughout. The Atlanta Falcons opened up at a pick’em at Carolina and have moved up to -1.5 favs. It’s rare that we side with the public (public slightly favoring Dirty Birds at around 55%) but the Panther’s OL is so horrible that we’re rolling with Atlanta, who are not a very good road team, nor is their offensive line very good. Cam Newton is hurt, they’ve got no run game and their secondary is horrible. The Falcons should grind out a win here. The Detroit Lions opened at +2.5 at Arizona and have moved to a pick’em. As you probably know, Carson Palmer got knocked out with an injury last week. Backup Stanton is servicable, but when given an opportunity, his stats have been underwhelming to say the least. I expect the Lions to put a ton of pressure on him with their nasty defense. We’re very confident that Stanton will toss a couple picks and cough up a fumble or two. On the flip side, Arizona’s defense is solid, however, this does not apply to their secondary. The return of WR Calvin Johnson opens things up for the Lions who now become a very dangerous team as they’re well balanced on both sides of the ball. Too many negative variables here for AZ.
Week 11 NFL Line Move Plays: Bills +4 (loss), Minnesota Vikings +2.5 (loss), KC Chiefs -1.5 (win), Atlanta Falcons -1.5 (win), Detroit Lions pick’em (loss).
Week 10: (11/6 through 11/10) The New Orleans Saints opened up as -3.5 home favs. vs. a Niners team that really looked out of sorts last week vs. the Rams. SF is struggling on both sides of the ball. We’re calling for a Saints BLOWOUT here! The NYJ opened up as +5.5 home underdogs vs. Pittsurgh. The line has dropped down to +4.5 despite only 23% backing the J-E-T-S. The Pitt D is HORRIBLE and has numerous key injuries, the Jets are a much better team than they’ve shown now that Michael Vick is running the show and the Steelers just don’t play as well on the road. It wouldn’t surprise us a bit if NY wins this game straight up. The Tennessee Titans opened up at +10.5 on the road at Balt. The line has come down to +10 and even +9.5 at some books despite only 33% backing the Titans. The Ravens are expected to have problems in the seconary which opens the door for the Titans to sneak in a cover.
Week 10 NFL Line Move Picks: N.O. Saints -5 (loss), NYJ +4.5 (win), Titans +10 (loss).
Week 9: (10/30 through 11/3) The Miami Dolphins opened at -1.5 and the line has moved up to -2 despite only 33% backing the Phins. The Houston Texans opened up as +3 home underdogs vs. Philly. The line has dropped to +1.5 despite only 36% backing the Eagles. We’re expecting the Eagles secondary to get exploited here in what should be a high scoring game.
Week 9 NFL Line Move Plays: Miami Dolphins -2. (win) and Houston Texans +1.5 (loss).
Week 8: (10/23 through 10/27) The Kansas City Chiefs opened up as -6 home favs vs. the Rams. The line has gone up to -7. Our line moves are usually going the opposite direction of public money. This is a rare case where we agree with the public. The Rams have a very poor run defense and this bodes poorly for them going up against a KC team that will jam it down your throat and then bust out with a pass downfield when you start loading the box. The Rams secondary is banged up as well. This is a real bad spot for STL.
Week 8 NFL Line Move Plays: Kansas City Chiefs -7 (win).
Week 7: (10/16 through 10/20) The Jacksonville Jaguars opened up as +4 home dogs vs. Cleveland. The line has moved up to +5.5 due to the public hammering the Browns. The Browns are missing their Center, which is HUGE. Jacksonville has quietly been improving and may very well win this game.
Week 7 NFL Line Move Plays: Jacksonville Jaguars +5.5 (win).
Week 6: (10/9 through 10/13) The Green Bay Packers opened as 3.5 point favorites and despite sportsbook action of 71% on the Pack the line has moved down to 3 at the square books and 2.5 at some of the sharper books.
Week 6 NFL Line Move Plays: Miami +3 (push)
Week 5: (10/2 through 10/6) The St. Louis Rams opened as +8 road underdogs at Philly. The line has dropped to +7 despite only 29% backing the Rams. Some online sportsbooks have even dropped the line to +6.5. The Rams have a great defensive front and Philly is weak. Bad matchup for the Eagles and the Rams may potentially win this game straight up. The Tennessee Titans opened up as suspect -1 favorites at home vs. a Browns team that is starting to turn some heads. The line has gone up a half point despite almost nobody betting on Tennessee, who has looked absolutely horrible at times. Our take here is that the Titans will win the ground game and time of possession battle as well as give Cleveland’s passing game some trouble. The New York Giants opened up as -3 home favs and have been bet up to -4 and for good reason! Atlanta has, does and will suck on the road this season. Their secondary resembles a wet paper bag and their hitting the Gmen at the wrong time as Eli and Crew are starting to hit their stride after some early season timing issues and young players not being familiar with the playbook and some of Eli’s audibles. The Buffalo Bills opened up as +7 road dogs at Detroit. The line has dropped to +6.5 despite only 38% betting on the Bills. Buffalo is NOT a bad team! Starting QB Manuel is now on the bench and Kyle Orton will be leading the troops. Many of the team’s receivers have been quoted as saying Orton gets the ball out faster and his veteran presence suits the team better. Furthermore, Lions WR Calvin Johnson is questionable for the game. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bills won this game straight up.
Week 5 NFL Line Move Plays: Rams +7 (win), Tennessee Titans -1.5 (loss), New York Giants -4 (win), Buffalo Bills +6.5 (win).
Week 4: (9/25 through 9/29) The NYG opened up as +4.5 road dogs at Washington. The line quickly moved down to +3.5 despite only 37% backing the GMEN. Wash. is really banged up including losing their top CB and Safety to long term injuries and there’s even more. I like NY to win this game straight up.
Week 4 Line Move Plays: NYG +3.5 (win). No Week 4 Sunday games fit our paramters.
Week 3: (9/18 through 9/20) The Bills opened as -1 home favs. vs. the San Diego Chargers. The Chargers are a good team, but might be getting a little too much respect after dumping Seattle last week. This Buffalo team is good and we make them a -6 favorite. The New York Giants opened up as +2.5 home favs vs. the Houston Texans and the line has moved 3.5 points, with the GMen now being the team favored to win, despite only receiving 42% of the public’s backing. Houston has beaten up a Redskins team that played poorly and the same can be said about their win last week over the Raiders. They’ll get their first test this week at NY. The MNF between Chi/NY opened up as a pickem and has moved to NYJ -2.5 despite the J-E-T-S only receiving 35% of the public’s wagering consideration.
Week 3 NFL Line Move Plays: Buffalo Bills -2 (loss), NYG -2 (win).
Week 2: 9/11 through 9/14) The Panthers opened up as -3 point home favs vs. Detroit. The line has dropped to -2.5 due to 62% of the public backing the Lions. It is my opinion that the Lions are average at best and the Giants made them look better than what they really are. I expect a stingy Panthers defense to stand strong and for Carolina to win by a very slim margin, such as a field goal. The New England Patriots opened up as -3 point road favs at Minnesota. The line shot up to -5.5 when the news on Adrian Peterson came out. I liked the Vikes at at +3 and I love it at +5.5. Peterson is a great back, but isn’t a huge variable in this game the Pats offensive line is what will be the deciding factor in this game. If they hold up, NE has a good shot of winning. If they don’t, which is my opinion, Minnesota wins this game straight up with or without A.P. Asiata is no slouch and will fill in nicely. The NY Jets opened up as +8 road dogs at Green Bay and the line has come down to +7.5 despite a paltry 31% backing the J-E-T-S. I believe G.B. will probably win, but it’s very likely that it won’t be by more than a touchdown allowing us to sneak in for a cover.
Week 2 NFL Line Move Picks: Carolina Panthers -2.5 (win), Minnesota Vikings +5.5 (loss), NYJ +7.5 (win).
Week 1: (9/4 through 9/8) The Cleveland Browns opened up as +5 road dogs at Pittsburgh. The line has moved to -7 because the public are hammering the Steelers. This is a different Browns team this year. Not a great Browns team, but one good enough to bet getting 7 points! The Jacksonville Jaguars opened up at +11. The line has dropped to +10.5 despite only 30% betting on the Jags.
Week 1 NFL Line Move Plays: Browns +7 (win), Jaguars +10.5 (loss).