Golden State Warriors (48-34 SU, 45-43 ATS) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (49-33 SU, 43-43 ATS)
Date & Time: Tuesday, May 6th, 2025 | 9:30 PM ET
Location: Target Center, Minneapolis, MN
TV Coverage: TNT
Point Spread: GS +7 | MIN -7
Total: 209.5
Money Line: Warriors +224 | Timberwolves -272
Key Matchup Insights
The Golden State Warriors (48-34) head to the Target Center for a crucial Western Conference playoff battle against the Minnesota Timberwolves (49-33). Golden State enters as the 7th seed in the West, fresh off a seven-game series victory over the Houston Rockets. Minnesota, the 6th seed, comes in with momentum after dispatching the Los Angeles Lakers in the first round and riding a three-game winning streak.
Notable Injuries
Golden State Warriors
- Gary Payton II (Questionable) – Illness
Minnesota Timberwolves
- Rob Dillingham (Out) – Ankle
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Golden State Warriors
The Warriors advanced to the second round with a decisive 103-89 Game 7 victory over the Houston Rockets on Sunday. Despite entering as 2.5-point underdogs, Golden State not only won outright but covered comfortably. The combined 192 points fell well short of the 205.5 total line.
Golden State showed championship poise down the stretch, turning an 84-74 deficit into an 86-84 lead with a pivotal 12-0 run. They dominated the fourth quarter, outscoring Houston 33-27 to secure the series-clinching win and advance to face Minnesota.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota earned their trip to the second round with a 103-96 victory over the Lakers on Wednesday, improving to 49-33 overall. The Timberwolves entered as 6-point underdogs but pulled off the upset while covering the spread. The game’s 199 total points stayed under the 210.5 line.
The Timberwolves established control early with a 31-22 first-quarter advantage and maintained a 59-49 halftime lead. Though Los Angeles rallied in the third quarter with a 31-22 run, Minnesota’s defense clamped down in the final frame, holding the Lakers to just 16 points while scoring 22 to close out the series.
Head-to-Head History
The Warriors hold a slight 3-2 edge against the spread in recent matchups with the Timberwolves. The average margin in these contests has been remarkably close at just -1 point per game, highlighting the competitive nature of this rivalry. Scoring has been moderate to high, with the teams averaging a combined 217 points and producing a 3-2 over-under record.
Team Analysis
Golden State Warriors
Buddy Hield delivered a playoff masterclass in Game 7 against the Rockets, connecting on 9 three-pointers at an astounding 81.8% clip en route to 33 points. Hield’s scoring was particularly impactful in key stretches, with 14 points in the second quarter and 11 in the decisive fourth period.
Stephen Curry showcased his championship pedigree with 22 points, 10 rebounds, and 7 assists, including 14 clutch points in the final quarter. Jimmy Butler contributed across the board with 20 points, 8 rebounds, and 7 assists, while Draymond Green added 16 points, half of which came in the opening frame to set the tone.
Defensively, Golden State was exceptional, limiting Houston to just 89 points on 40% shooting from the field. The Warriors were particularly stingy in the first half, allowing just 19 points in the first quarter and 20 in the second. Their perimeter defense was solid, surrendering only 6 three-pointers at a 33% rate while recording 8 blocks and 6 steals.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Rudy Gobert dominated the interior in Minnesota’s series-clinching win over the Lakers, posting a monster double-double with 27 points and 24 rebounds while shooting an efficient 80% from the field. Gobert’s consistency was evident throughout, scoring 9 points in both the first and third quarters.
Julius Randle provided crucial secondary scoring with 23 points, including 11 in the fourth quarter to help secure the victory. Anthony Edwards struggled with his shot, hitting just 26.3% from the field, but still contributed 15 points, 8 assists, and 11 rebounds in a display of his all-around impact even when his scoring is limited.
The Timberwolves’ defensive identity was on full display against Los Angeles, holding the Lakers to 96 points on 42% shooting. After allowing 31 points in the third quarter, Minnesota locked in defensively for the final period, surrendering just 16 points. They limited the Lakers to 11 three-pointers at a 29% conversion rate while collecting 36 defensive rebounds, 8 steals, and 5 blocks.
Betting Trends
- Golden State has been exceptional on the road recently, posting a 7-2-1 record against the spread in their last ten away games while averaging 116 points per game. Their overall record in these contests is an impressive 8-2.
- Minnesota has been solid but not spectacular at home lately, going 3-2 both straight up and against the spread in their last five games at Target Center.
- As underdogs in their last three games, the Warriors have struggled with a 1-2 record both straight up and against the spread.
- The Timberwolves have been dominant as favorites, going 5-0 straight up and 4-1 against the spread in their last five games when laying points.
Expert Pick Against The Spread
Despite Minnesota entering as substantial 7-point favorites after an impressive first-round showing against the Lakers, there’s reason to believe Golden State can keep this game competitive. The Warriors’ Game 7 victory in Houston provides momentum, and Jimmy Butler will be particularly motivated facing his former team, even though Chris Finch wasn’t Minnesota’s head coach during Butler’s tenure.
