Golden State Warriors (48-34 SU, 46-43 ATS) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (49-33 SU, 43-44 ATS)
Date & Time: Thursday, May 8th, 2025 | 8:30 PM ET
Location: Target Center, Minneapolis, MN
TV Coverage: TNT
Point Spread: GS +10.5 | MIN -10.5
Total: 201.5
Money Line: Warriors +397 | Timberwolves -527
Key Matchup Insights
After a surprising Game 1 victory, the Golden State Warriors (48-34) head into Game 2 looking to take a commanding 2-0 lead in their Western Conference playoff series against the Minnesota Timberwolves (49-33). Despite being significant underdogs at +10.5 points — an increased spread from Game 1’s +6.5 — the seventh-seeded Warriors have momentum following their 99-88 road win on Tuesday. Minnesota, the sixth seed, will look to bounce back on their home court and avoid falling into a dangerous 0-2 hole.
Notable Injuries
Golden State Warriors
- Stephen Curry (Out) – Hamstring
Minnesota Timberwolves
- Rob Dillingham (Out) – Ankle
Game 1 Recap
The Warriors secured a 99-88 victory over the Timberwolves in Game 1 on Tuesday, covering the +6.5 point spread as underdogs. The combined 187 points fell well short of the 210-point over/under line.
After Minnesota jumped to an early advantage with a 10-0 run, Golden State’s defense clamped down in the second quarter, holding the Timberwolves to just 11 points. The Warriors then seized control with a 36-point third quarter explosion, building a commanding 80-60 lead entering the final period. Though Minnesota outscored Golden State 28-19 in the fourth quarter, the deficit proved too large to overcome.
Team Shooting Performance (Game 1)
Golden State Warriors
- Field Goal Percentage: 39.1%
- Three-Point Percentage: 42.9% (18 made)
- Free Throws: 13-15 (86.7%)
Minnesota Timberwolves
- Field Goal Percentage: 39.5%
- Three-Point Percentage: 17.2% (5 made)
- Defensive Stats: 7 steals, 6 blocks
Head-to-Head History
The Warriors hold a commanding 4-1 advantage against the spread in the last five meetings with the Timberwolves. Golden State has averaged 106 points per game in these matchups while allowing 103 points. The combined scoring average of 209 points has produced a 2-3 record on the over-under.
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Start Saving Today!Player Performance (Game 1)
Golden State Warriors
- Buddy Hield: 24 points (5-8 3PT), 8 rebounds, including 16 points in the 3rd quarter
- Draymond Green: 18 points (4 made threes), with 14 points in the 2nd quarter
- Jimmy Butler: 20 points, 11 rebounds
Minnesota Timberwolves
- Anthony Edwards: 23 points (40.9% FG), 14 rebounds, with 13 points in the 4th quarter
- Naz Reid: 19 points, 3-7 from three-point range (42.9%)
- Julius Randle: 18 points, 6 assists
Betting Trends
- Golden State is 2-1 both against the spread and straight up in their last three road games.
- Minnesota has averaged 109 points while allowing 104 in their last five home games, posting a 3-2 record both straight up and against the spread during this stretch.
- As underdogs in their last three games, the Warriors have gone 2-1 both against the spread and straight up.
- When favored in their last three games, the Timberwolves have gone 2-1 both straight up and against the spread.
Key Factors for Game 2
The absence of Stephen Curry (hamstring) remains a significant blow for Golden State, but they demonstrated in Game 1 that their supporting cast can step up. Buddy Hield’s three-point shooting was crucial, while Jimmy Butler’s playoff experience proved valuable against his former team.
Minnesota’s three-point shooting struggles (17.2% in Game 1) could be a deciding factor in Game 2. The Timberwolves will need Anthony Edwards to be more efficient, as his 40.9% shooting wasn’t enough to overcome Golden State’s defensive pressure in the series opener.
The 10.5-point spread represents a significant adjustment from oddsmakers, who clearly expect a strong Minnesota response on their home court. However, Golden State’s defensive discipline and perimeter shooting prowess make them a compelling play as double-digit underdogs.
Expert Pick Against The Spread
Despite Minnesota’s home-court advantage and likely adjustments, the 10.5-point spread appears excessive given Golden State’s Game 1 performance. The Warriors have demonstrated they can compete even without Stephen Curry, largely due to their three-point shooting advantage and playoff experience.
While the Timberwolves should respond with a better offensive showing, particularly at home, their ongoing three-point shooting struggles make covering a double-digit spread challenging. Jimmy Butler’s motivation against his former team adds another intangible factor favoring Golden State.
Betting Pick: Golden State Warriors +10.5
