Phoenix Suns (29-33 SU, 22-39 ATS) vs. Denver Nuggets (40-22 SU, 31-30 ATS)

When: Friday, March 7th, 10:00 PM (ET)

Where: Ball Arena, CO, Denver

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: Pho +7.5/Den -7.5

Total: 237.5

Money Line: Phoenix Suns +247/-299

Notable Injuries

Suns

• Bradley Beal (Questionable) Calf
• Monté Morris (Out) Back
• Cody Martin (Out) Hernia

Nuggets

• Aaron Gordon (Questionable) Ankle
• Nikola Jokić (Questionable) Ankle
• Zeke Nnaji (Probable) Ankle
• Julian Strawther (Out) Knee
• DaRon Holmes II (Out) Achilles

The Suns (+247) will travel to Denver to take on the Nuggets (-299) at Ball Arena. Tip-off is scheduled for 10:00 ET, and the game will be televised on ESPN.

Phoenix is currently 11th in the Western Conference with a record of 29-33, while Denver is 3rd in the West at 40-22. The Nuggets are favored by 7.5 points, and the over/under line for the game is 237.5.

Recent Form

With a 119-117 win over the Clippers on Tuesday, the Suns improved to 29-33 for the season. Phoenix was +2.5 point underdogs but managed to cover the spread with the victory. The game’s total score of 236 points exceeded the O/U line of 223.5 by 12.5 points.

After falling behind 95-76 going into the 4th quarter, the Suns turned things around by outscoring the Clippers 43-22 in the final period. A key 12-0 run helped Phoenix close the gap, taking the score from 95-74 to 95-86.

With a 116-110 win over the Kings on Wednesday, the Nuggets improved to 40-22 for the season. Denver was favored by 8.5 points but didn’t cover the spread. The total score of 226 points fell short of the O/U line of 235.

Denver rallied at home after a rough start, trailing 42-29 after the 1st quarter. They chipped away at the lead, outscoring Sacramento 26-23 in the 2nd and 29-28 in the 3rd. The Nuggets dominated the 4th quarter, holding the Kings to 17 points while scoring 32.

The Historicals

When looking at how these teams have performed vs the spread in recent matchups, the Suns have an ATS mark of 3-2. Yet, the Nuggets have averaged more points per game in these contests, at 108 compared to Denver at 105. Over the course of these games, they averaged 213 points per game, leading a 0-4-1 over-under record.

Analysis

Kevin Durant’s 19-point fourth quarter helped the Suns edge the Clippers, finishing with 34 points and seven rebounds in the win. Devin Booker added 17 points, while Nick Richards contributed 16 points on 80% shooting.

Phoenix shot 51.2% from the field and hit 14 threes at a 41.2% clip. Durant made four threes, shooting 36.4% from deep.

Despite giving up 41 points in the 2nd quarter, the Suns tightened up defensively in the 4th, allowing just 22 points to help secure the win. Overall, they allowed 117 points on 51% shooting from the field.

The Suns did an excellent job defending the three, holding the Clippers to 26% shooting with just eight made threes. They also gave up 27 free throws, with the Clippers converting 23. The Suns finished with 30 defensive rebounds, five steals, and three blocks.

Russell Westbrook led the Nuggets with 25 points and four threes, shooting 57.1% from deep in their win over the Kings. Jamal Murray added 24 points, while Nikola Jokić contributed 22 points and 15 rebounds. Denver shot 46% from the field and 34.3% from three, hitting 12 threes in the game.

Westbrook scored 12 points in the 4th quarter, while Murray added 9. Jokić had 8 points in both the 1st and 3rd quarters, and Christian Braun chipped in 6 of his 15 points in the 2nd quarter.

Despite a tough 1st quarter where they allowed 42 points, the Nuggets tightened up defensively, giving up just 23 points in the 2nd and 17 in the 4th to secure a win over the Kings. Overall, they allowed 110 points on 45% shooting from the field.

From beyond the arc, the Nuggets gave up 11 threes on 40% shooting. They sent the Kings to the line 14 times, where they made 11 free throws. Denver also recorded five steals and eight blocks in the game.

Betting Trends

• Through their last three road contests, the Suns offense has averaged 126 points per game while allowing an average of 131. Phoenix posted an overall record of 1-2 while going 1-2 ATS.
• Across the Nuggets’ last ten home games, the team averaged 117 points per game while allowing 119. Their record vs. the spread in these contests was 3-7 while going 5-5 straight-up.
• In their last three games as the betting underdog, the Suns have a straight-up record of 1-2 and an ATS mark of 2-1.
• Across their last five matchups as the betting favorite, the Nuggets have an overall record of 3-2 while going 1-4 against the spread.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

The Suns head to Denver tonight and are +7.5 point underdogs. The injury reports are something to keep an eye on as the day progresses, as the Nuggets have both Aaron Gordon and Jokic listed as questionable. If the Suns are going to work their way back into one of the play-in tourney seeds, they will need to start stringing together some wins, as they are just 3-7 in their last 10. Even though I don’t see them winning this one tonight, I expect a competitive game. I like Phoenix at +7.5.