Houston Rockets (32-18 SU, 29-21 ATS) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (28-23 SU, 21-29 ATS)

When: Thursday, February 6th, 8:00 PM (ET)

Where: Target Center, MN, Minneapolis

TV: SCHN

Point Spread: Hou -1.5/Min +1.5

Total: 214.5

Money Line: Houston Rockets -122/+102

Notable Injuries

Rockets

• Steven Adams (Doubtful) Ankle
• Fred VanVleet (Out) Ankle
• Jaden Springer (Questionable) Trade Pending
• Jabari Smith Jr. (Out) Hand

Timberwolves

• Julius Randle (Out) Groin
• Donte DiVincenzo (Out) Toe

At 8:00 ET, the Minnesota Timberwolves host the Houston Rockets (-122) in a Western Conference matchup. The Timberwolves (+102) are 7th in the West, while the Rockets (-1.5) are 3rd.

This game will be played at the Target Center in Minneapolis and can be seen on SCHN. The over/under line is 214.5.

Recent Form

The Rockets dropped to 32-18 on the season after a 99-97 road loss to the Nets on Tuesday. Houston, who entered the game as 9-point favorites, not only lost but also failed to cover the spread. The combined score of 196 points was well under the pre-game total of 212.

A pivotal moment came when the Nets went on a 14-0 run, extending the score from 57-51 to 65-57. Houston battled back, outscoring Brooklyn 30-28 in the 4th quarter, but it wasn’t enough to complete the comeback.

The Timberwolves improved to 28-23 on the season with a 127-108 win over the Bulls on Wednesday. Minnesota, playing at home, entered the game as a -11.5-point favorite and covered the spread. The total score of 235 points exceeded the over/under line of 226.5 by 8.5 points.

Minnesota jumped out to a 39-30 lead after the 1st quarter, but the Bulls responded with a 10-0 run and took the 2nd quarter 30-23. The Timberwolves edged out the 3rd quarter 32-30 and then dominated the 4th, holding Chicago to just 18 points while scoring 33.

The Historicals

In terms of betting, Minnesota has an ATS record of 3-2 in the previous five matchups vs Houston. This mark has come on an average scoring margin of +10 points per game in favor of the Timberwolves. In these matchups, the teams have put together an over-under mark of 4-1. Combined, they averaged 218 points in these games.

Analysis

In Tuesday’s 99-97 loss to the Nets, the Rockets struggled offensively, shooting just 41% from the field and making 11 threes at a 34.4% clip. Alperen Şengün led the way with 24 points and 20 rebounds, shooting 44.4% from the floor. Dillon Brooks and Reed Sheppard each added 16 points, with Brooks hitting three threes at 42.9% efficiency.

Şengün was a force in the 4th quarter, scoring 15 of his 24 points. Brooks contributed 8 points in the final period, while Sheppard added 3 of his 11 4th-quarter points in the 2nd quarter.

Defensively, the Rockets held the Nets to 99 points but couldn’t secure the win. They gave up 22 points in both the 1st and 2nd quarters, followed by 27 in the 3rd and 28 in the 4th. Brooklyn shot 46% from the field.

The Rockets limited the Nets to 10 made threes on 37% shooting from deep. Brooklyn went 13/17 from the free-throw line. Houston allowed 10 offensive rebounds while recording six steals and six blocks.

Anthony Edwards led the Timberwolves to a 127-108 win over the Bulls, pouring in 49 points and nine rebounds, hitting six threes at 42.9%. Minnesota connected on 20 threes as a team, shooting 42.6% from deep, though their overall field goal percentage was 42.9%.

Edwards scored 20 points in the 3rd quarter, adding 14 in the 1st and 10 in the 4th. Naz Reid contributed 22 points, 10 rebounds, and four threes, while Jaden McDaniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker each added 12 points.

Even though the Timberwolves gave up 30 points in each of the first three quarters, they tightened up in the 4th, allowing just 18 points to secure the win. Overall, they held the Bulls to 108 points on 48% shooting.

Minnesota did well defending the three, with Chicago hitting just 12 threes at a 33% clip. The Timberwolves also limited the Bulls to 22 free throw attempts. They finished with 36 defensive rebounds, allowing six offensive boards while adding six steals and eight blocks.

Betting Trends

• When looking at their past five road matchups, Houston has an ATS record of 3-2 while averaging 109 per game. The team went 2-3 overall in these games.
• In their last three home games, Minnesota has averaged 124 points per game while allowing 113. The team’s record in this stretch was 3-0 while going 2-1 vs. the spread.
• The last ten games that Minnesota was the underdog, they have an ATS mark of 6-3-1 while going 5-5 straight up.
• Going back to their last five games as the favorite, the Rockets have a straight up record of 2-3. But their mark vs the spread was just 1-4.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

Both teams are dealing with some injuries to key players, but I am giving the advantage to the Timberwolves in this one. Houston’s offense relies heavily on getting to the paint, and Minnesota is one of the best interior defensive units in the NBA. I’m looking at the Timberwolves on the money line.