Indiana Pacers (50-32 SU, 43-46 ATS) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (64-18 SU, 52-37 ATS)
Date & Time: Tuesday, May 13th, 2025 | 7:00 PM ET
Location: Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland, OH
TV Coverage: TNT
Point Spread: IND +7.5 | CLE -7.5
Total: 230
Money Line: Pacers +247 | Cavaliers -301
Key Matchup Insights
The Central Division rivals meet for Game 5 as the Indiana Pacers (50-32) travel to Cleveland to face the Cavaliers (64-18) in a pivotal playoff matchup. Indiana stunned Cleveland with a dominant 129-109 victory in Game 4, and now the Cavaliers face the pressure of avoiding elimination on their home court. With the series potentially on the line, Cleveland enters as substantial 7.5-point favorites despite their recent struggles.
Notable Injuries
Indiana Pacers
- Isaiah Jackson (Out) – Achilles
Cleveland Cavaliers
- Donovan Mitchell (Questionable) – Ankle
Series Context
The Pacers have momentum after their commanding Game 4 victory, where they controlled the game from start to finish. Cleveland, despite their superior regular season record (64-18 vs. 50-32), now faces the possibility of elimination if they can’t protect their home court. The Cavaliers will be especially concerned about Donovan Mitchell’s ankle injury status, as his availability could significantly impact their chances.
Team Form
Indiana Pacers (50-32)
- Current Status: Coming off dominant 20-point victory in Game 4
- Road Record (Recent): 7-3 straight-up and ATS in last 10 road games
- Road Scoring: Averaging 124 points while allowing 118 in last 10 road games
- As Underdog (Recent): 6-4 straight-up, 7-3 ATS in last 10 games
- Series History vs. CLE: 4-1 ATS in last 5 meetings, +4 average scoring margin
Cleveland Cavaliers (64-18)
- Current Status: Facing potential elimination after 20-point home loss
- Home Record (Recent): 4-1 straight-up and ATS in last 5 home games
- As Favorite (Recent): 6-4 straight-up, 5-5 ATS in last 10 games
- Key Concern: Mitchell’s questionable status with ankle injury
Game 4 Recap
Indiana delivered a statement performance with a 129-109 victory over Cleveland on Sunday. Entering as 5.5-point underdogs, the Pacers not only won outright but covered comfortably. The game’s total of 238 points easily exceeded the 230.5 over/under line.
The turning point came early when Indiana went on a 13-0 run, expanding their lead from 38-23 to 51-23. The Pacers completely dominated the second quarter, outscoring Cleveland 42-16 to build a commanding halftime advantage. Although the Cavaliers showed some fight in the second half, winning the third quarter 38-29 and the fourth 32-20, they entered the final period trailing 109-77 – a deficit too large to overcome.
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Player Performance (Game 4)
Indiana Pacers
- Pascal Siakam: 21 points on 90% shooting, 9 points in 3rd quarter
- Myles Turner: 20 points, 4 three-pointers, 13 points in 2nd quarter
- Obi Toppin: 20 points
- Ben Sheppard: 14 points, 9 in the 4th quarter
- T.J. McConnell: 13 points, 5 in the 4th quarter
- Team Shooting: 52.7% FG, 42.9% 3PT (15 made), 16-20 FT (80%)
Cleveland Cavaliers
- Darius Garland: 21 points, 6 assists, 54.5% FG, 12 points in 3rd quarter
- Isaac Okoro: 13 points, 2-2 from three (100%)
- Donovan Mitchell: 12 points, struggled with 27.3% shooting
- Jaylon Tyson: 11 points, all scored in the 4th quarter
- Team Shooting: 42.9% FG, 40% 3PT (14 made), 35-40 FT (87.5%)
Shooting Analysis (Game 4)
Indiana Pacers
- Field Goal Percentage: 52.7%
- Three-Point Performance: 15-35 (42.9%)
- Free Throws: 16-20 (80%)
- Quarterly Scoring: 38-42-29-20 = 129
Cleveland Cavaliers
- Field Goal Percentage: 42.9%
- Three-Point Performance: 14-35 (40%)
- Free Throws: 35-40 (87.5%)
- Quarterly Scoring: 23-16-38-32 = 109
- Defensive Stats: 8 steals, 4 blocks
Head-to-Head History
In the last five meetings, Indiana has been dominant both straight-up and against the spread, holding a 4-1 ATS advantage with an average scoring margin of +4 points per game. These matchups have consistently been high-scoring affairs, averaging 236 combined points and resulting in a 4-1 record going over the total.
Key Factors for Game 5
Mitchell’s Health: Donovan Mitchell’s questionable status with an ankle injury looms large. His struggles in Game 4 (12 points on 27.3% shooting) were partly attributed to this injury, and his availability for Game 5 could determine Cleveland’s fate.
Indiana’s Road Excellence: The Pacers have been exceptional on the road, going 7-3 both straight-up and ATS in their last 10 away games while averaging 124 points. This road success gives them confidence heading into hostile territory.
Second Quarter Collapse: Cleveland’s 16-point second quarter in Game 4 was devastating. The Cavaliers allowed 42 points while scoring just 16, essentially ending the game before halftime. They’ll need much better execution to avoid elimination.
Depth Advantage: Indiana’s balanced scoring attack has been impressive, with five players reaching double figures in Game 4. Siakam’s efficiency (90% shooting), Turner’s three-point prowess (4 made), and contributions from role players like Sheppard and McConnell demonstrate their depth.
Betting Trends Analysis
- Indiana excels as underdogs: 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games in that role
- Cleveland has been inconsistent as favorites: 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games when favored
- The Pacers have been excellent on the road: 7-3 ATS in their last 10 away games
- Historical trends favor Indiana: 4-1 ATS in last 5 meetings with Cleveland
Expert Pick Against The Spread
Game 5 presents a challenging scenario for bettors. Cleveland has the better regular season record and home-court advantage, but Indiana enters with significant momentum after their dominant Game 4 performance. The key question mark is Mitchell’s health – if he’s compromised, the Cavaliers’ offensive ceiling drops considerably.
Indiana’s recent road success (7-3 ATS in last 10) and their excellence as underdogs (7-3 ATS in last 10) are encouraging trends. The Pacers have also dominated this specific matchup, going 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings while outscoring Cleveland by an average of 4 points per game.
The 7.5-point spread seems inflated given the recent performances and injury concerns. Even if Cleveland wins, their inconsistency as favorites (5-5 ATS in last 10) suggests they may not cover such a large number.
Betting Pick: Indiana Pacers +7.5
With Mitchell’s ankle injury creating uncertainty and Indiana playing with house money, the Pacers represent strong value at +7.5. Expect a competitive game that stays within the number, and don’t be surprised if Indiana pulls off another outright road victory to eliminate the top-seeded Cavaliers.
