Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder: Game 7 Betting Preview
Date & Time: Sunday, May 18th | 3:30 PM ET
Location: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
TV Coverage: ABC
Point Spread: Denver Nuggets +8.5 / Oklahoma City Thunder -8.5
Total: 213 points
Money Line: Denver Nuggets +266 / Oklahoma City Thunder -329
Series Status
Series tied 3-3. This is the decisive Game 7 of the Western Conference semifinals.
Team Analysis
Denver Nuggets (50-32 SU, 46-47 ATS)
- Season Record: 50-32 Straight Up
- Against The Spread: 46-47
- Conference Standing: 4th in Western Conference
- Recent Form: Coming off a 119-107 win over the Thunder in Game 6
Oklahoma City Thunder (68-14 SU, 56-33 ATS)
- Season Record: 68-14 Straight Up
- Against The Spread: 56-33
- Conference Standing: 1st in Western Conference
- Recent Form: Coming off a 119-107 loss to the Nuggets in Game 6
Notable Injuries
Denver Nuggets
- Aaron Gordon (Doubtful) – Hamstring
- Hunter Tyson (Questionable) – Ankle
- DaRon Holmes II (Out) – Achilles
Oklahoma City Thunder
- Nikola Topić (Out) – Knee
Previous Game Recap (Game 6)
Final Score: Denver Nuggets 119, Oklahoma City Thunder 107
The Nuggets, who were +5 point underdogs, evened the series with a convincing win over the Thunder. A key 12-0 run in the middle of the game turned a 58-49 deficit into a 61-58 lead for Denver. The Nuggets outscored the Thunder 32-21 in the 3rd quarter and maintained control in the 4th, winning that period 29-25. The game’s 226 total points exceeded the 218-point over/under line.
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Key Player Performances
Denver Nuggets
- Nikola Jokić: 29 points, 14 rebounds, 8 assists, 64.3% FG, 11 points in 4th quarter
- Jamal Murray: 25 points
- Christian Braun: 23 points, 11 rebounds, 3-6 3PT (50%)
- Julian Strawther: 15 points (7 in 4th quarter)
Oklahoma City Thunder
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 32 points, 6 assists, 3 rebounds, 68.8% FG, 2-4 3PT (50%)
- Chet Holmgren: 19 points, 11 rebounds, 57.1% FG, 2-7 3PT (28.6%)
- Luguentz Dort: 10 points, 44.4% FG, 2 3PT
Team Statistics (Game 6)
Denver Nuggets
- Field Goal: 46.5%
- 3-Point: 12-32 (37.5%)
- Free Throws: 27-32 (84.4%)
- Defensive Stats: 8 steals, 6 blocks
- Rebounding: Controlled the boards, allowing only 7 offensive rebounds
Oklahoma City Thunder
- Field Goal: 46.7%
- 3-Point: 11-40 (27.5%)
- Free Throws: 10-16 (62.5%)
- Defensive Stats: 11 steals
- Rebounding: 33 defensive rebounds, gave up 11 offensive boards
Historical Matchup
In their recent meetings, the Nuggets have gone 4-1 against the spread despite the Thunder having a positive scoring differential. Oklahoma City has averaged 112 points per contest in these matchups, while allowing 106. The two teams have averaged a combined 218 points per game in these contests, resulting in an over-under record of 2-3.
Betting Trends
Denver Nuggets
- Last 3 road games: 1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS, averaging 110 points while allowing 126
- Last 10 games as underdog: 5-5 SU, 7-2-1 ATS
Oklahoma City Thunder
- Last 10 home games: 7-3 SU, 4-6 ATS, averaging 115 points per game
- Last 10 games as favorite: 7-3 SU, 3-7 ATS
Analysis & Prediction
This decisive Game 7 pits the Western Conference’s top seed against the defending champions. The Thunder have been dominant all season with their 68-14 record, but the Nuggets have momentum after their Game 6 victory. Denver’s experience in high-pressure situations could be valuable, especially with Nikola Jokić’s exceptional playoff performance.
The Thunder will benefit from home-court advantage at Paycom Center, but their 4-6 ATS record in their last 10 home games is concerning. Similarly, Oklahoma City’s 3-7 ATS mark in their last 10 games as favorites suggests they may struggle to cover the 8.5-point spread.
Denver’s 7-2-1 ATS record in their last 10 games as underdogs is impressive, though Aaron Gordon’s likely absence (hamstring) could impact their defense. The Nuggets have shown they can keep games close and their veteran leadership may help them weather the intense Game 7 atmosphere.
Betting Pick
Denver Nuggets +8.5
While the Thunder have home-court advantage and could win this Game 7, the 8.5-point spread seems too large against the defending champions. Expect Jokić and the Nuggets to keep this game competitive throughout, even in a hostile environment. Denver’s playoff experience should help them cover the spread, even if they don’t win outright.
