Minnesota Timberwolves (49-33 SU, 42-43 ATS) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (50-32 SU, 46-39 ATS)
When: Wednesday, April 30th, 10:00 PM (ET)
Where: Crypto.com Arena, CA, Los Angeles
TV: TNT
Point Spread: Min +5.5/LAL -5.5
Total: 209.5
Money Line: Minnesota Timberwolves +187/-225
Notable Injuries
Timberwolves
- Rob Dillingham (Out) Ankle
Lakers
- Maxi Kleber (Questionable) Foot
The Timberwolves are on a two-game win streak and are 6th in the Western Conference. They are +187 underdogs and have a spread of +5.5 against the Lakers. The over/under line is at 209.5. The Lakers are favored by 5.5 and are 3rd in the Western Conference. They have lost two straight games.
This game will be played at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles and will be televised on TNT. Tip-off is scheduled for 10:00 ET.
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The Timberwolves improved to 49-33 this season with a 116-113 win over the Lakers on Sunday. Playing at home, Minnesota entered the game as a -2.5-point favorite and covered the spread. The total score of 229 points exceeded the O/U line of 208.5 by 20.5 points.
After a 14-0 run by the Lakers put them ahead 75-60, the Timberwolves responded by outscoring LA 32-19 in the 4th quarter to complete the comeback.
The Lakers fell to 50-32 on the season after a 116-113 road loss to the Timberwolves on Sunday. Los Angeles, who entered the game as +2.5 point underdogs, couldn’t cover the spread. The total score of 229 points exceeded the pre-game line of 208.5 by 20.5 points.
After a 14-0 run extended their lead from 61-60 to 75-60, the Lakers appeared in control. However, after outscoring Minnesota 36-23 in the 3rd quarter, they couldn’t hold onto their 94-84 lead heading into the 4th, where they were outscored 32-19.
The Historicals
Over the last five head-to-head meetings, the Timberwolves have averaged 107 points per game compared to 103 for Los Angeles. This has led to an ATS record of 3-2 for Minnesota. In these matchups, the teams have put together an over-under mark of 2-3. Combined, they averaged 210 points in these games.
Analysis
Anthony Edwards led the Timberwolves to a win over the Lakers, scoring 43 points, 16 of which came in the 4th quarter. He hit five threes at a 50% rate, finishing with a 52.2% field goal percentage. Julius Randle added 25 points, with 13 in the opening quarter, despite shooting 40.9% from the field.
Minnesota shot 42.2% overall, connecting on 14 threes at a 38.9% rate. Jaden McDaniels contributed 16 points and 11 rebounds, hitting 66.7% from deep. Naz Reid also stepped up late, scoring 8 of his 12 points in the final period.
Defensively, the Timberwolves gave up 113 points to the Lakers, including a rough 1st and 3rd quarter where they allowed 32 and 36 points, respectively. However, they tightened up in the 4th, holding the Lakers to just 19 points to help secure the win. Overall, Minnesota allowed Los Angeles to shoot 45% from the field.
The Timberwolves struggled to defend the three, as the Lakers hit 19 threes at a 40% clip. Minnesota also sent Los Angeles to the line 25 times, where they made 22 free throws. On the boards, the Timberwolves gave up 11 offensive rebounds while recording eight steals and two blocks.
In their 116-113 loss to the Timberwolves, the Lakers hit 19 threes at a 40.4% clip, though their overall shooting percentage was just 45%. Luka Dončić led the way with 38 points, knocking down five threes at 41.7% efficiency.
LeBron James added 27 points and 12 rebounds, while Rui Hachimura contributed 23 points, hitting five threes at 50%. Austin Reaves scored 11 of his 17 points in the 3rd quarter.
Defensively, the Lakers had a strong 3rd quarter, holding the Timberwolves to 23 points, but they gave up 32 points in the 4th, leading to a 116-113 loss. Overall, they allowed Minnesota to shoot 42% from the field.
From beyond the arc, the Timberwolves hit 14 threes at a 38% clip. The Lakers also sent Minnesota to the line 33 times, where they made 26 free throws. Los Angeles gave up 18 offensive rebounds while recording six steals and seven blocks.
Betting Trends
- When looking at their past three road matchups, Minnesota has an ATS record of 2-1 while averaging 114 per game. The team went 2-1 overall in these games.
- Across the Lakers’ last three home games, the team averaged 99 points per game while allowing 113. Their record vs. the spread in these contests was 0-3 while going 0-3 straight-up.
- Minnesota has done well both straight up and vs. the spread as the underdog, going 3-2 SU and 3-2 ATS in their last five games.
- The Lakers have played well in their last five games as the betting favorite, going 4-1 straight up and 4-1 against the spread.
Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread
As this series shifts back to LA, the Lakers are in a 3-1 hole and face elimination vs the Wolves. J.J. Redick took a lot of heat after game 4, given that he rolled with the same unit the entire 2nd half, and the Lakers couldn’t pull out the win late. The Lakers are favored by -5.5, and I think they have some more in the tank to win this one and cover. I like the Lakers at -5.5.
