Milwaukee Bucks (36-27 SU, 29-33 ATS) vs. Indiana Pacers (35-28 SU, 30-32 ATS)

When: Tuesday, March 11th, 7:30 PM (ET)

Where: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, IN, Indianapolis

TV: TNT

Point Spread: Mil -3/Ind +3

Total: 234

Money Line: Milwaukee Bucks -144/+121

Notable Injuries

Bucks

• Giannis Antetokounmpo (Probable) Calf
• Damian Lillard (Probable) Groin
• Bobby Portis (Out) Suspension
• Pat Connaughton (Questionable) Calf
• Pete Nance (Questionable) Ankle

Pacers

• Tyrese Haliburton (Questionable) Hip Flexor
• Isaiah Jackson (Out) Achilles

At 7:30 ET, the Pacers will host the Bucks in a Central Division matchup. The Pacers are 3-point underdogs and have lost three straight games. The Bucks are 4th in the East and have lost two straight games. The over/under line for this game is 234.

This game will be played at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. The Bucks are favored by 3 points and have a moneyline of -144. The Pacers are 5th in the East and have a moneyline of +121. This game will be shown on TNT.

Recent Form

The Bucks fell to 36-27 on the season after a 112-100 home loss to the Cavaliers on Sunday. Milwaukee entered the game as +7 point underdogs and failed to cover the spread. The total score of 212 points was well below the O/U line of 241.5.

After trailing 62-52 at halftime, the Bucks cut the deficit to 84-77 heading into the 4th quarter. However, a 13-0 run by the Cavaliers put the game out of reach as they stretched the score from 92-84 to 97-92.

After a 121-103 loss to the Bulls on Monday, the Pacers’ record dropped to 35-28. Indiana, who were -4 point favorites, not only lost but failed to cover the spread. The game’s total points of 224 fell short of the 239 O/U line.

Chicago’s 12-0 run early in the game turned the tide, pushing the score from 37-35 to 49-35. The Bulls dominated the 2nd quarter, outscoring Indiana 40-21, and while the Pacers won the 4th quarter 30-27, it was too late to mount a comeback.

The Historicals

When looking at how these teams have performed against the spread in recent matchups, the Bucks hold the edge at 3-2. However, the average scoring margin in these matchups has been tight, sitting at just 2 points per game. In these contests, they averaged a combined 228 points per game, leading to an over-under mark of 4-1.

Analysis

In their 112-100 loss to the Cavaliers, the Bucks struggled offensively, shooting just 42.9% from the field and hitting only nine threes at a 29% clip. Giannis Antetokounmpo led the way with 30 points and nine rebounds, shooting 54.2% from the floor.

Damian Lillard added 22 points, while Kyle Kuzma chipped in 14, making two threes at 40%. Giannis scored 9 points in both the 1st and 2nd quarters, while Lillard also put up 9 in the opening period.

The Bucks gave up 112 points to the Cavaliers on Sunday, with a tough start in the 1st quarter, allowing 34 points. They tightened up in the 3rd, holding Cleveland to 22 points. Overall, Milwaukee allowed the Cavaliers to shoot 44% from the field.

Milwaukee struggled to defend the three-point line, as Cleveland hit 19 threes at a 40% clip. The Bucks sent the Cavaliers to the free-throw line 19 times, where they made 15. Defensively, the Bucks recorded nine steals and two blocks.

The Pacers struggled offensively in their loss to the Bulls, shooting just 39.6% from the field and 25% from three-point range. They made only 10 threes in the game, with Myles Turner leading the team with 15 points, including 11 in the 2nd quarter.

Pascal Siakam added 13 points, scoring 6 in the 1st quarter, while Ben Sheppard contributed 12 points, 7 of which came in the 4th quarter. Sheppard also hit two threes, shooting 50% from beyond the arc.

The Pacers struggled defensively in the 2nd quarter, giving up 40 points, which contributed to their 121-103 loss to the Bulls. Overall, they allowed Chicago to shoot 50% from the field.

Indiana did a decent job defending the three-point line, with the Bulls hitting 12 threes at a 36% rate. The Pacers also recorded 14 steals and four blocks in the game.

Betting Trends

• Although Milwaukee has a straight-up record of 5-5 in their last ten road games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 3-7. The team averaged 111 points per game in these games.
• In their last three games at home, the Pacers have a straight-up record of 0-3 while going 0-3 vs. the spread. The team averaged 113 points per game in this stretch.
• Going back to their last three games as the underdog, the Pacers have a straight-up record of 1-2. But, their mark vs the spread was just 1-2.
• Milwaukee has done well both straight up and vs the spread when favored to win the game, going 2-1 SU and 2-1 ATS in their last three games.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

As things stand right now, the Bucks and Pacers could very well face off in the first round in the playoffs for the 2nd year in a row. However, both teams come into this one with losing streaks. Indiana is only 5-5 in their last 10 games, and Tyrese Haliburton is currently questionable with a hip flexor injury. But the Pacers always seem to play well vs Milwaukee, and the Bucks really have a tough time on the road vs Indiana. I like the Pacers at +3 in this one.