Miami Heat (26-29 SU, 22-32 ATS) vs. Atlanta Hawks (26-31 SU, 27-30 ATS)

When: Monday, February 24th, 7:30 PM (ET)

Where: State Farm Arena, GA, Atlanta

TV: FDSS

Point Spread: Mia -1.5/Atl +1.5

Total: 227.5

Money Line: Miami Heat -117/-102

Notable Injuries

Heat

• Kevin Love (Out) Personal
• Dru Smith (Out) Achilles
• Nikola Jović (Out) Hand

Hawks

• Larry Nance Jr. (Out) Knee
• Vít Krejčí (Out) Back
• Jalen Johnson (Out) Shoulder
• Kobe Bufkin (Out) Shoulder

At 7:30 ET, the Miami Heat (-117) will travel to Atlanta to take on the Hawks (-102). The Heat are currently favored by 1.5 points and have a record of 26-29, which is good for 8th in the Eastern Conference. The Hawks, who have lost three straight, are 9th in the East with a record of 26-31.

This Southeast Division matchup will be played at State Farm Arena and can be seen on FDSS. The over/under line for the game is currently sitting at 227.5 points.

Recent Form

The Heat fell to 26-29 on the season after a 120-113 road loss to the Bucks on Sunday. Miami, who entered the game as +4.5 point underdogs, not only lost but also failed to cover the spread. The game’s total points of 233 went over the pre-game line of 221.

Miami started strong, leading 37-23 after the 1st quarter. However, the Bucks chipped away at the lead, and a 12-0 run in the 4th quarter turned the game in Milwaukee’s favor, as they outscored the Heat 35-20 in the final period.

The Hawks fell to 26-31 on the season after a 148-143 loss to the Pistons on Sunday. Atlanta, who were +2 point underdogs, failed to cover the spread at home.

Detroit led 33-30 after the 1st quarter and 43-38 in the 2nd. Atlanta trimmed the lead to 36-35 in the 3rd, but the Pistons pulled ahead 112-103 going into the 4th. The Hawks outscored Detroit 40-36 in the final quarter but couldn’t complete the comeback. The game’s total of 291 points went well over the pre-game line of 239.

The Historicals

Through the last five matchups between the teams, Miami has an ATS mark of 3-2. But, looking at the scoring margin in these games, an average of just 2 points per game separates the teams. The over-under record in these same games is 2-3, with the teams combining for an average of 226 points per game.

Analysis

In the Heat’s 120-113 loss to the Bucks, Tyler Herro led the way with 40 points, 11 assists, and seven rebounds, shooting 44.4% from the field and hitting three threes at 25%. Bam Adebayo added 24 points, shooting 62.5% and making both of his three-point attempts, while Andrew Wiggins contributed 20 points despite shooting just 35%.

Miami struggled from beyond the arc, making only nine threes at a 29% clip, though they shot 46.6% overall. Herro scored 12 points in the 4th quarter, while Kel’el Ware added 8 of his 12 points in the final period.

The Heat gave up 120 points to the Bucks, who shot 51% from the field. Miami allowed 23 points in the 1st quarter but struggled in the 4th, giving up 35 points.

From beyond the arc, the Heat allowed 14 threes on 35% shooting. The Bucks also went 18/22 from the free-throw line. Defensively, Miami recorded three steals and three blocks.

Trae Young’s 38 points and 13 assists led the Hawks in their 148-143 loss to the Pistons, with Young hitting six threes at 40% efficiency. Georges Niang added 27 points, connecting on seven threes at a 50% rate, while Dyson Daniels contributed 24 points, going 3-for-3 from deep and shooting 71.4% overall.

Atlanta hit 21 threes, shooting 46.7% from beyond the arc and 50% from the field overall. Young scored 15 points in the 4th quarter, with Daniels adding 7 and Niang 6 in the final period.

The Hawks struggled defensively on Sunday, giving up 148 points to the Pistons. Detroit scored 33 points in the 1st quarter, 43 in the 2nd, and 36 in both the 3rd and 4th quarters. Atlanta allowed the Pistons to shoot 59% from the field.

From beyond the arc, the Pistons hit 20 threes at a 50% clip. The Hawks sent Detroit to the line 25 times, where they made 18 free throws. Defensively, Atlanta recorded eight steals and six blocks.

Betting Trends

• In their last three games away from home, the Heat have a straight-up record of 1-2 while going 1-2 vs. the spread. The team averaged 115 points per game in this stretch.
• Although Atlanta has a straight-up record of 5-5 in their last ten home games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 8-2. The team averaged 119 points per game in these games.
• In their last three games as the betting underdog, the Hawks have a straight-up record of 0-3 and an ATS mark of 1-2.
• In their last three games as the betting favorite, the Heat have a straight up record of 1-2 and an ATS mark of 1-2.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

The Heat and the Hawks each have 26 wins heading into this one, and each squad played and lost yesterday. It was an even more disappointing loss for Miami, as they were leading throughout most of their game vs Milwaukee. They even wasted a huge effort from Tyler Herro. Now, they have the tough task of hitting the road right away to play on back-to-back nights. Atlanta is really struggling right now, but I think they take advantage of being at home, and I see them beating a worn-down Miami team. I got Atlanta on the money line.