Los Angeles Clippers (50-32 SU, 50-37 ATS) vs. Denver Nuggets (50-32 SU, 40-46 ATS)
When: Saturday, May 3rd, 7:30 PM (ET)
Where: Ball Arena, Denver, CO
TV: TNT
Point Spread: LAC +1.5/DEN -1.5
Total: 206.5
Money Line: Los Angeles Clippers +101 / Denver Nuggets -120
Notable Injuries
Clippers
- No Injuries Reported
Nuggets
- DaRon Holmes II (Out) Achilles
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Start Saving Today!Recent Playoff Form
The Clippers evened their first-round playoff series at 3-3 with a crucial 111-105 home victory over the Nuggets on Thursday night. With their season in jeopardy, James Harden delivered an impressive 28-point, 8-assist performance while shooting 50% from the field and hitting 3 three-pointers. Kawhi Leonard added 27 points and 10 rebounds, also shooting 50%, while Norman Powell contributed 24 points on 60% shooting.
A decisive moment came in the third quarter when the Clippers orchestrated a 12-0 run, turning a tight 70-66 game into an 82-66 advantage. Despite the Nuggets’ fourth-quarter rally, where they outscored the Clippers 26-21, Denver couldn’t close the gap.
In the loss, the Nuggets shot an efficient 52.4% from the field and 40.7% from three-point range. Nikola Jokić led Denver with 25 points and 8 assists, with 15 points coming in the second quarter. Jamal Murray contributed 21 points (12 in the first quarter), while Aaron Gordon added 19 points. Christian Braun provided a spark with 14 points, including 10 in the third quarter.
This marks another missed opportunity for the Nuggets, who have struggled to close out potential series-clinching playoff games. They’ve now failed in four of their last five chances to advance when leading a series since their 2023 championship run.
The Playoff Matchup
This Clippers-Nuggets series will conclude with the first Game 7 of the 2025 NBA playoffs. The victorious team will advance to face the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder, who dominated their first-round matchup against Memphis.
The series has developed into the expected clash of strengths. Denver relies on their elite offense orchestrated by Nikola Jokić, while Los Angeles counters with their defensive prowess that’s been enhanced since Kawhi Leonard returned to full health.
Both coaching staffs have made critical adjustments throughout the series. For Game 6, Clippers coach Tyronn Lue inserted Nicolas Batum into the starting lineup in place of Kris Dunn, creating better spacing for Harden to operate.
Betting Trends
- Across their last five road contests, Los Angeles has performed well against the spread, posting a mark of 3-2. Their overall record in these games was 3-2 while averaging 111 points per game.
- In their last three home games, the Nuggets have a straight-up record of 1-2 while going 1-1-1 vs. the spread. Their offense averaged just 96 points per game in these contests.
- As betting underdogs in their last five games in that role, the Clippers have gone an impressive 4-1 against the spread with a 2-3 overall record.
- Through their last five games as favorites, the Nuggets have an ATS record of 3-2 and a straight-up mark of 4-1.
Head-to-Head History
In the previous five head-to-head meetings between these teams prior to this series, both Los Angeles and Denver had an ATS record of 2-2-1. The Clippers hold the edge in average point differential at +5 points per game. In those matchups, the teams have a combined over-under mark of 2-3, averaging 213 points per game.
Expert Analysis
As the only NBA game on Saturday’s slate, this Game 7 matchup between the Clippers and Nuggets should draw significant betting interest. The majority of money is expected to back the Nuggets to defend their home court, but the Clippers have demonstrated they have the talent and resilience to advance. Despite being slight underdogs at +1.5, the Clippers’ offensive firepower and defensive adjustments make them an intriguing choice to cover or even win outright on the money line.
I’m taking them on the moneyline +105.
How both teams handle the pressure of this winner-take-all Game 7 will ultimately determine which squad advances to face Oklahoma City in the conference semifinals so going easy on this may be the most prudent option.
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