Boston Celtics (65-24 SU, 42-47 ATS) vs. New York Knicks (57-33 SU, 46-43-1 ATS)
Date & Time: Saturday, May 10th, 2025 | 3:30 PM ET
Location: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
TV Coverage: ABC
Point Spread: BOS -5.5 to -6 (varies by sportsbook)
Total: 206-207.5 (varies by sportsbook)
Money Line: Celtics -237 to -250 | Knicks +195 to +210
Key Matchup Insights
The series shifts to Madison Square Garden for a pivotal Game 3 as the New York Knicks look to extend their surprising 2-0 lead over the top-seeded Boston Celtics. After stunning wins in Games 1 and 2 at TD Garden, the Knicks return home as underdogs despite their recent success. Boston, facing the prospect of a near-insurmountable deficit, is under immense pressure to salvage their season in what promises to be an electric atmosphere at MSG.
Notable Injuries
Boston Celtics
- Sam Hauser (Doubtful) – Ankle
New York Knicks
- No Injuries Reported
Season and Recent Form
Boston Celtics (65-24)
- Overall Record: 65-24 SU, 42-47 ATS
- Last 10 Games: 6-4 SU, 4-6 ATS
- Road Record: 34-9 SU, 22-21 ATS
- Points Per Game: 115.29 (season), 102.60 (last 10)
- Points Allowed: 106.22 (season), 94.30 (last 10)
- Point Differential: +9.07 (season), +8.30 (last 10)
- Current Streak: Lost 2 straight
New York Knicks (57-33)
- Overall Record: 57-33 SU, 46-43-1 ATS
- Last 10 Games: 7-3 SU, 7-3 ATS
- Home Record: 28-16 SU, 22-21-1 ATS
- Road Record: 29-17 SU, 24-22 ATS
- Points Per Game: 114.90 (season), 106.20 (last 10)
- Points Allowed: 111.03 (season), 104.80 (last 10)
- Point Differential: +3.87 (season), +1.40 (last 10)
- Current Streak: Won 2 straight in this series, 5-1 SU in last 6 games overall
Series Recap
Game 2: Knicks 91, Celtics 90
New York stunned Boston for the second straight game with a dramatic 91-90 victory. Entering as 10.5-point underdogs, the Knicks outshot the Celtics 43% to 36.2% from the field. Boston held a 50-41 halftime lead and maintained control until the fourth quarter, when New York mounted a furious comeback, outscoring the Celtics 30-17 in the final period.
Game 1: Knicks 108, Celtics 105
In the series opener, New York overcame Boston as 8.5-point underdogs. The Knicks shot 42.5% compared to Boston’s 35.1%, including a decisive 17-37 (45.9%) performance from three-point range. Despite Boston grabbing more rebounds (59-49), New York’s superior shooting and 10 steals propelled them to victory.
Key Team Statistics
| Statistic | Boston Celtics | New York Knicks |
|---|---|---|
| Field Goal % | 46.02% (47.52% in H2H) | 48.22% (46.06% in H2H) |
| Assists Per Game | 25.62 | 26.77 |
| Rebounds Per Game | 45.33 (42.80 in H2H) | 42.55 (42.30 in H2H) |
| Three-Pointers | 17.31 per game (38.7% in H2H) | 12.48 per game (37.4% in H2H) |
| Steals Per Game | 7.22 (6.70 in H2H) | 8.28 (6.10 in H2H) |
Head-to-Head Analysis
The teams have met 10 times since November 2023, with Boston holding a 7-3 advantage. However, New York has won the last three meetings, including both playoff games in this series. Historically, Boston has dominated at Madison Square Garden, going 5-1 in their last 6 games in New York.
Over the last 10 meetings, Boston has averaged 116.7 points per game compared to New York’s 107.5. The Celtics have shot slightly better (47.52% vs. 46.06%) and held a small rebounding edge (42.8 vs. 42.3). The over/under record in these games is 5-4-1.
Recent Performance (Last 5 Games)
Boston Celtics
| Date | Opponent | Result | Line | ATS | O/U | FG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 7, 2025 | vs NY | L 90-91 | -10.5 | L | U | 36.17% |
| May 5, 2025 | vs NY | L 105-108 | -8.5 | L | P | 35.05% |
| Apr 29, 2025 | vs ORL | W 120-89 | -11.5 | W | O | 56.58% |
| Apr 27, 2025 | @ ORL | W 107-98 | -7.5 | W | O | 43.59% |
| Apr 25, 2025 | @ ORL | L 93-95 | -5.5 | L | U | 44.59% |
New York Knicks
| Date | Opponent | Result | Line | ATS | O/U | FG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 7, 2025 | @ BOS | W 91-90 | +10.5 | W | U | 43.02% |
| May 5, 2025 | @ BOS | W 108-105 | +8.5 | W | P | 42.53% |
| May 1, 2025 | @ DET | W 116-113 | +1.5 | W | O | 47.67% |
| Apr 29, 2025 | vs DET | L 103-106 | -5.5 | L | U | 43.33% |
| Apr 27, 2025 | @ DET | W 94-93 | +2.5 | W | U | 37.36% |
Betting Trends
New York Knicks
- New York is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
- New York is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
- New York is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games at home
- New York is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games at home
- New York is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home (contradictory to above, suggests recent home struggles)
- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New York’s last 8 games at home
- New York is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing Boston
- New York is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Boston
- New York is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Boston
Boston Celtics
- Boston is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
- Boston is 18-5 SU in its last 23 games
- Boston is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
- Boston is 18-3 SU in its last 21 games on the road
- Boston is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing New York
- Boston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against New York
Key Factors for Game 3
Boston’s Shooting Struggles: The Celtics have shot just 35.05% and 36.17% in the first two games of the series, well below their season average of 46.02%. This dramatic drop in efficiency has been a major factor in their two losses.
Contrasting Home/Road Trends: Despite New York’s 2-0 series lead, historical trends favor Boston at Madison Square Garden, where the Celtics have won 5 of their last 6 meetings. However, the Knicks have been strong at home this season (28-16) and are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 home games.
Game Pace: Both playoff games have gone under or pushed the total, with Game 2 finishing significantly under (181 points vs. 211 line). The defensive intensity has increased in the playoffs, with both teams scoring below their season averages.
Fourth Quarter Performance: The Knicks have dominated fourth quarters in both games, including outscoring Boston 30-17 in Game 2. This late-game execution will be crucial as the series progresses.
Expert Pick Against The Spread
This Game 3 presents a fascinating betting scenario. On one hand, the Knicks have momentum after two road upsets and are 5-1 ATS in their last six games. On the other hand, Boston has historically dominated at Madison Square Garden (5-1 SU in last six visits) and is in a must-win situation.
The key question is whether Boston’s shooting will improve. The Celtics’ 35-36% field goal percentage in the first two games is unlikely to continue, especially considering their season average of 46%. If their shooting regresses toward the mean, Boston should have a strong offensive performance.
While the Knicks have the momentum, several factors point toward a Boston bounce-back: their superior season-long point differential (+9.07 vs. +3.87), their dominant road record (34-9), and their historical success at MSG. The desperation factor cannot be overlooked – Boston simply cannot afford to fall behind 3-0 in this series.
Betting Pick: Boston Celtics -5.5
Expect a determined Boston team to finally find their shooting touch and secure a crucial road victory. While New York has been impressive, the combination of Boston’s road prowess, historical success at MSG, and the must-win situation should lead to a comfortable Celtics win that covers the 5.5-point spread.
Total Recommendation: Under 206.5
With the under hitting in Game 2 and six of New York’s last eight home games going under, expect another defensive battle. Both teams have been scoring below their season averages in their recent games, suggesting the playoff intensity will continue to keep scoring in check.
