Cleveland Cavaliers (64-18 SU, 52-36 ATS) vs. Indiana Pacers (50-32 SU, 42-46 ATS)
Date & Time: Sunday, May 11th, 2025 | 8:00 PM ET
Location: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
TV Coverage: TNT
Point Spread: CLE -5.5 | IND +5.5
Total: 230.5
Money Line: Cavaliers -217 | Pacers +181
Key Matchup Insights
The Eastern Conference playoff series continues with Game 4 as the Cleveland Cavaliers (64-18) aim to extend their lead over the Indiana Pacers (50-32) in Indianapolis. After dominating Game 3 with a 126-104 victory, Cleveland now holds a 3-1 series lead and can close out the series with another win. The Pacers face elimination and must respond with urgency on their home court, where they’ve been solid all season.
Notable Injuries
Cleveland Cavaliers
- No Injuries Reported
Indiana Pacers
- Isaiah Jackson (Out) – Achilles
Series Status
The Cavaliers currently lead the best-of-seven series 3-1 after their commanding 126-104 victory in Game 3. Notably, the road team has won all three games in this series, with Cleveland taking Games 1 and 3 in Indianapolis, while Indiana stole Game 2 in Cleveland. The Pacers must win Game 4 to avoid elimination and force the series back to Cleveland for Game 5.
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Start Saving Today!Team Form
Cleveland Cavaliers (64-18)
- Current Series Standing: Leading 3-1
- Road Record: 3-0 straight-up in last three road games
- Road Performance: Averaging 129 points while allowing 91 in last 3 road games
- As Favorite: 3-2 straight-up and ATS in last five games
- Overall ATS Record: 52-36
Indiana Pacers (50-32)
- Current Series Standing: Facing elimination (down 3-1)
- Home Record: 7-3 straight-up and ATS in last ten home games
- Home Performance: Averaging 124 points per game in last ten home contests
- As Favorite: 3-2 straight-up and ATS in last five games
- Overall ATS Record: 42-46
Game 3 Recap
Cleveland controlled Game 3 from start to finish, securing a crucial 126-104 victory despite shooting just 29.8% from three-point range. The Cavaliers built their lead early with an 11-0 run and never looked back, dominating the second quarter 34-13 to establish a commanding advantage.
The game remained competitive with Indiana outscoring Cleveland 34-31 in the third quarter, but the Pacers entered the fourth quarter trailing 97-79 and couldn’t mount a sufficient comeback.
Player Performance (Game 3)
Cleveland Cavaliers
- Donovan Mitchell: 43 points, 9 rebounds, 5-13 from three (38.5%), 14 points in 4th quarter
- Max Strus: 20 points, 7 rebounds, 4-8 from three (50%), 66.7% FG
- Jarrett Allen: 19 points, 12 rebounds, 54.5% FG
- Evan Mobley: 18 points, 8 in the first quarter
- Team Shooting: 42% FG, 29.8% 3PT (14 made), 28-37 FT (75.7%)
Indiana Pacers
- Bennedict Mathurin: 23 points, 3-8 from three (37.5%)
- Pascal Siakam: 18 points, 10 in the 4th quarter
- Myles Turner: 15 points, 12 in the first quarter
- T.J. McConnell: 12 points, 6 in the 3rd quarter
- Team Shooting: 43.8% FG, 30% 3PT (9 made)
Defense Analysis (Game 3)
Cleveland Cavaliers
- Points Allowed: 104
- Best Quarter: 2nd quarter (allowed only 13 points)
- 3PT Defense: Held Indiana to 30% (9-30)
- Rebounding Advantage: 38 defensive rebounds, allowed only 4 offensive rebounds
- Defensive Stats: 5 steals, 7 blocks
Indiana Pacers
- Points Allowed: 126
- 3PT Defense: Limited Cleveland to 29.8% (14-47)
- Free Throw Fouls: Sent Cleveland to the line 37 times (28 made)
- Rebounding Weakness: Allowed 18 offensive rebounds
- Defensive Stats: 6 steals, 8 blocks
Head-to-Head History
In the last five meetings between these teams, Indiana has held a 3-2 advantage against the spread. However, the average scoring margin is exactly 0 points per game, indicating incredibly competitive matchups. These contests have been high-scoring affairs, averaging 234 points per game with a 3-2 record going over the total.
Key Factors for Game 4
Road Team Dominance: The most striking trend in this series is that the road team has won all three games. Cleveland won Games 1 and 3 in Indianapolis, while Indiana stole Game 2 in Cleveland. This pattern defies conventional playoff wisdom about home-court advantage.
Cleveland’s Balanced Attack: Despite Donovan Mitchell’s 43-point explosion in Game 3, the Cavaliers showed impressive depth with five players scoring in double figures. This balance has been crucial to their series success.
Three-Point Shooting Variance: Cleveland dominated Game 3 despite shooting just 29.8% from three-point range. Their ability to win convincingly without their outside shots falling demonstrates the team’s overall strength and suggests they could be even more dangerous if their shooting improves.
Elimination Game Pressure: Indiana faces a must-win scenario, which historically can lead to desperate, high-energy performances. The Pacers need to leverage their home crowd and avoid falling behind early as they have in previous games.
Expert Pick Against The Spread
This series has followed a clear pattern of road team success, making Game 4 particularly intriguing. Cleveland dominated Game 3 even while shooting poorly from three, which suggests they have significant upside if their perimeter shooting improves. Mitchell’s 43-point performance showcased his ability to take over games, while the supporting cast provided valuable contributions.
Indiana faces elimination and will undoubtedly play with desperation and urgency. However, their defensive struggles – allowing 126 points in Game 3 and 18 offensive rebounds – remain concerning. The Pacers’ inability to get consistent stops has been a major factor in falling behind 3-1.
While elimination games can produce magical performances, Cleveland’s superior talent and momentum make them a strong play. The 5.5-point spread seems reasonable given the Cavaliers’ dominance in this series, and their road success (3-0 in last three away games) suggests they’re comfortable playing in hostile environments.
Betting Pick: Cleveland Cavaliers -5.5
Expect Cleveland to continue the road team dominance and close out the series in Game 4. Despite Indiana’s desperation, the Cavaliers’ balanced attack and defensive improvements should lead to a series-clinching victory that covers the 5.5-point spread.
