Race: Wurth 400 Presented by LIQUI MOLY
Date: Sunday May 4th, 2025
Track: Texas Motor Speedway
Time: 3:30pm ET
Channel: FS1
After the unpredictable drama at Talladega Superspeedway, NASCAR shifts to the high-speed 1.5-mile Texas Motor Speedway where track position is king and Kyle Larson looks to defend his 2024 victory. Our expert analysis and betting predictions identify the favorites and sleepers for Sunday’s Wurth 400.
What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?
Talladega did Talladega things! Not to take away from his developing talent, but Austin Cindric winning is another example of just how unpredictable this race tends to be. He really wasn’t on the bingo card this week, but that’s okay. Another driver that was not on anyone’s radar was Ryan Preece. The race ultimately ended (surprisingly) in a clean photo finish between the two drivers, with Cindric able to take advantage of the draft from lap cars on his inside. Both drivers had to be somewhat nervous with 2 Hendrick cars behind them, but they kept all 4 wheels on the ground for a 1-2 finish. Cindric forgave Larson after he helped him through the draft despite Larson wrecking him earlier this year at Atlanta. Cindric gave credit to Larson’s strategic superspeedway driving.
Unfortunately for Preece, post-race inspection came back to haunt him. His finish was disqualified along with Joey Logano due to issues with the rear spoiler or splitter on their cars. This is a huge disappointment for Preece, who came home with his best career finish. Ultimately, he’s having a strong 2025, though, and is looking to capitalize on the momentum from Talladega. Overall, the race was a clean one by Talladega standards, with only 5 drivers coming back with DNFs, a rarity at this place. Brad Keselowski, Ryan Blaney, Kyle Busch, Chris Buescher, and Christopher Bell were the unlucky drivers of the day to get caught up in superspeedway incidents, ending their days prematurely. Kyle Larson, William Byron, and Noah Gragson rounded out the top 5 spots after penalties were awarded. Chase Elliott, Carson Hocevar, Alex Bowman, Bubba Wallace, and Daniel Suarez cleaned up the remainder of the top 10.
Where Are We Headed This Weekend?
This weekend, the drivers and teams are headed to a bit of a different track. Although Texas isn’t a superspeedway, the track lends itself to high speeds and a lot of green flag action. This 1.5-mile asphalt oval has 20 degrees of banking through turns 1 and 2, 24 degrees in turns 3 and 4, and 5 degrees on the backstretch. It’s history is rich, with a multitude of changes through the years on configuration, surface, and leadership. Texas tends to be a race dictated by different strategies, but no matter what, track position is absolutely critical. Tires will potentially play a role, but with the stage breaks, I don’t foresee them being as critical as maintaining track position. That means that pit road mistakes are going to be costly for drivers this weekend.
Odds and Value Picks
Heading into Texas, there are a handful of names to keep on our radar. Namely, Kyle Larson, William Byron, Tyler Reddick, and Ryan Blaney are the guys that I would keep front of mind. Larson is the front runner right now (+350). With his history on intermediate tracks, and especially knowing that he holds a current records at Texas, Larson is playing to win this weekend. He had a strong run going at Talladega and likely will not give much grace this weekend to capture a win. He will be trying to outrun the other guys like teammate William Byron (+700) and Ryan Blaney (+700) who run pretty strong odds at this place as well. Tyler Reddick is someone with a good history here, and he’s looking to clean up what’s been a challenging year so far in 2025.
Winner: Kyle Larson (+350)
As the defending winner of this race and also someone who can start from anywhere in the pack and get to the front, Larson is the man to beat. He drove from 21st to 1st in 2024 and also has back to back wins after sweeping the races in 2021. He hasn’t finished worse than 11th in his last 6 starts here, which include those 3 wins. Look for Larson to be at the front of the pack when it matters most.
Mid-Range Pick: Austin Cindric (+3000)
Coming off a win at Talladega is a high that most folks don’t get to experience. Cindric has had a long road of challenges through is career, but 2025 has been good to him so far. He’s finding his groove and is looking to continue to improve. Not only is he coming into this weekend secured with a playoff spot, but he got his best ever Texas finish just last year with an 8th place spot. Cindric is coming in hot, and I reckon he will improve his performance this Sunday.
Dark Horse: Ryan Preece (+15000)
Preece may have been disqualified due to whatever circumstances you want to call that at Talladega, but he had an enormously strong run for his team. Overall, Preece is continuing to improve and is looking for a win. On similar tracks this year, Preece has done tremendously well, coming home with a 9th at Homestead and a 3rd at Vegas. His last run at Texas in 2024 gave him a respectable 12th place finish, and he’s looking to best that run and climb his way back into the top 16.
Current Standings
- 1. William Byron
- 2. Kyle Larson
- 3. Denny Hamlin
- 4. Chase Elliott
- 5. Christopher Bell
- 6. Tyler Reddick
- 7. Bubba Wallace
- 8. Ryan Blaney
- 9. Alex Bowman
- 10. Ross Chastain
- 11. Joey Logano
- 12. Chase Briscoe
- 13. Chris Buescher
- 14. Austin Cindric
- 15. AJ Allmendinger
- 16. Kyle Busch
Busch is back on the bubble and in danger of falling out of playoff contention once again. He’s got to find his way back on track, and recent finishes at Texas aren’t promising. Although Preece isn’t in the top 16 this week, I think he will bounce back quickly. That faux pas cost him dearly at Talladega. Assuming his team puts together a reasonable car, I think that Preece is going to come away with a very strong finish at Texas. How will the rest of the drivers make out? Stay tuned and find out was they head to Texas Motor Speedway for a great Sunday afternoon of racing!
