New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: MLB Betting Preview
Date & Time: Friday, May 16th | 7:05 PM ET
Location: Yankee Stadium, New York, NY
TV Coverage: YES
Money Line: Yankees -138 / Mets +118
Run Line: Yankees -1.5 / Mets +1.5
Total: 9 runs
Team Standings & Current Form
New York Yankees
- Record: 25-18
- Division Standing: 1st in AL East, 4 games ahead
- Home/Road Split: 13-8 home, 12-10 road
- Series Record: 8-6 (won 3 straight series)
New York Mets
- Record: 28-16
- Division Standing: 1st in NL East, 2.5 games ahead of Phillies
- Home/Road Split: 17-5 home, 11-11 road
- Series Record: 9-4-1 (won 3 straight series)
Recent Game Recap
Yankees
Last Game: Yankees 3, Mariners 2
Yankees completed series sweep with offensive explosion early. Aaron Judge went 2/4 with a homer and run scored. Paul Goldschmidt also homered. Will Warren pitched 5 innings, allowing 2 runs on 4 hits with 9 strikeouts.
Mets
Last Game: Pirates 4, Mets 0
Mets were shut out despite being heavy -270 favorites. Clay Holmes started and took the loss despite pitching well (6 innings, 4 hits, 0 earned runs). Offense managed just 6 hits and couldn’t capitalize on bases-loaded opportunity in 2nd inning.
Starting Pitchers Breakdown
Carlos Rodón (Yankees)
- Season Record: 4-3
- ERA: 3.29
- Quality Starts: 4
- K/9: 11.03
- Home/Road Split: 1-2, 3.51 ERA at home / 3-1, 3.30 ERA on road
- Last Start: No-decision vs Athletics (6 IP, 4 ER)
Tylor Megill (Mets)
- Season Record: 3-3
- ERA: 3.10
- Quality Starts: 1 in 8 starts
- Home/Road Split: 1.93 ERA at home / 4.22 ERA on road
- Last Start: Loss (4.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 hits, 2 HR)
Offensive Analysis
New York Yankees Key Performers
- Aaron Judge: .412 BA, 15 HR, 41 RBIs (leads league in RBIs, 2nd in HR)
- Trent Grisham: .283 BA, 12 HR
- Paul Goldschmidt: Recent power surge with homer last game
- Team Rankings: 1st in HR, OPS, OBP, slugging; 2nd in BA (.263)
- Scoring: 5.8 runs per game (6.0 at home)
New York Mets Key Performers
- Pete Alonso: .311 BA, 36 RBIs (2nd in league)
- Francisco Lindor: .297 BA, 9 HR (7th in league)
- Juan Soto: 8 HR (tied for 2nd on team)
- Brandon Nimmo: 8 HR (tied for 2nd on team)
- Team Rankings: 7th in HR
- Scoring: 4.7 runs per game (4.9 on road)
Betting Trends
New York Yankees
- Straight Up: 25-18
- Run Line: 25-18
- Over/Under: 20-21
- As Underdog: Have been underdog in every game played
New York Mets
- Straight Up: 28-16
- Run Line: 28-16
- Over/Under: 16-26-2
- As Underdog: 28-16 record
- As Favorite: Undefeated this season
Analysis & Prediction
This crosstown rivalry matchup features two division leaders with contrasting recent form. The Yankees enter on a high note after sweeping the Mariners, while the Mets suffered a disappointing shutout loss to Pittsburgh as heavy favorites.
The pitching matchup slightly favors the Yankees. While both starters have similar ERAs, Rodón has been more consistent with better strikeout numbers and four quality starts compared to Megill’s one. Notably, Megill has struggled on the road (4.22 ERA) and is coming off a poor outing where he allowed two home runs.
Offensively, the Yankees have a significant advantage. They lead the league in multiple offensive categories and are averaging over a run more per game than the Mets. Aaron Judge is having an MVP-caliber season and has been particularly hot recently. The Yankees’ home park advantage is also notable, as they average 6 runs per game at Yankee Stadium.
The Mets’ strength lies in their overall record and road performance, but their recent offensive struggles and Megill’s road issues are concerning factors for this matchup.
Betting Pick
Yankees Money Line (-138)
The Yankees offer excellent value at -138. Their superior offense, home field advantage, and slightly better pitching matchup make them the logical choice. Megill’s road struggles combined with the Yankees’ potent home offense create a favorable scenario for New York to cover the money line.
