The World Series rematch we’ve all been waiting for has arrived as the New York Yankees (35-20) visit the Los Angeles Dodgers (34-22) for a three-game series at Dodger Stadium. This heavyweight clash features the two best teams from last October’s Fall Classic, with both squads looking strong again in 2025. With Max Fried taking the mound against Tony Gonsolin, I’m expecting a statement performance from the Yankees’ ace in his return to Southern California. Add in the Aaron Judge-Shohei Ohtani star power, and we have all the ingredients for an instant classic on Friday night.
Quick Picks:
– Best Bet: Yankees Moneyline (-133) ★★★★☆
– Top Prop: Aaron Judge Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110) ★★★★★
– Value Play: Game Total Over 9 Runs (-108) ★★★☆☆
Yankees vs Dodgers Betting Odds & Latest Line Movement
| Market | New York Yankees | Los Angeles Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -133 | +112 |
| Run Line | -1.5 (+126) | +1.5 (-150) |
| Total | Over 9 (-108) | Under 9 (-112) |
Opening Line: Yankees -125, Total 8.5
Sharp Money Analysis: Where Pro Bettors Are Placing Their Wagers
Early money has come in steadily on the Yankees, pushing the line from -125 to -133 despite this being a road game against the defending champions. The sharp action suggests professional bettors see value in the Yankees behind Fried’s dominant pitching and their recent hot streak (16 wins in their last 20 games).
What’s particularly telling is the total movement from 8.5 to 9, indicating respected money believes this pitching matchup isn’t as lopsided as the starters’ numbers might suggest. With the Dodgers’ injury-depleted bullpen, smart money is anticipating more runs than one might expect with Fried on the mound.
Pitching Matchup: Max Fried vs Tony Gonsolin – Who Has the Edge?
New York Yankees: Max Fried (7-0, 1.29 ERA)
- Remarkable 0.93 WHIP with 67 strikeouts in 70 innings
- Has allowed 2 or fewer runs in all 11 starts this season
- Southern California native pitching in front of hometown crowd
- Holding opponents to a .189 batting average
Los Angeles Dodgers: Tony Gonsolin (2-1, 4.68 ERA)
- Struggled with command issues (12 BB in 25 IP)
- Missing fewer bats this season (9.2 K/9, down from career 10.5)
- Has pitched beyond 5 innings just once in 5 starts
- Opponents hitting .267 against him this season
Advantage: Significant edge to New York. Fried has been arguably the best pitcher in baseball this season, while Gonsolin is still finding his footing after returning from injury. The gap between these two starters is substantial and represents the Yankees’ clearest advantage in this matchup.
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Bullpen Breakdown
The Yankees’ bullpen has been a major strength this season, posting a collective 2.95 ERA (3rd in MLB). Devin Williams has been nearly untouchable as the closer, while Clay Holmes, Mark Leiter Jr., and Ian Hamilton provide reliable bridge options.
In stark contrast, the Dodgers’ relief corps has been decimated by injuries. With Blake Treinen, Evan Phillips, Michael Kopech, and Kirby Yates all on the IL, Dave Roberts has been forced to rely on less proven options. Tanner Scott, their major offseason acquisition, has blown five saves already and just surrendered four runs in his most recent outing against Cleveland.
The Dodgers just acquired Alexis Díaz from Cincinnati, but he’ll likely need time in the minors before contributing. This bullpen disparity gives the Yankees a critical late-game advantage that I expect to be decisive if the game is close in the later innings.
Key Betting Trends & Team Statistics That Matter
- Yankees are 16-4 in their last 20 games and 10-1 in Max Fried’s starts this season
- Dodgers are 22-8 at home this season but just 3-5 in their last 8 games overall
- Yankees lead MLB with a +113 run differential (Dodgers are +65)
- New York is 19-11 on the road this season, while LA is 22-8 at home
- Aaron Judge is batting an MLB-best .391 with 18 HR and 47 RBI
- Shohei Ohtani leads MLB with 20 home runs and 59 runs scored
- Yankees are 28-10 when scoring first this season
- Dodgers have allowed 5+ runs in 8 of their last 12 games
Aaron Judge vs. Shohei Ohtani: Superstars Set to Shine on Big Stage
Tonight’s game features a showdown between arguably the two most dominant offensive forces in baseball – Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani. Judge leads the majors with a .391 batting average and 1.227 OPS, while Ohtani paces MLB with 20 home runs.
Judge has particularly thrived against right-handed pitching this season (.407 BA, 12 HR in 140 AB), making his matchup against Gonsolin especially dangerous. While Judge was intentionally walked twice in his most recent game against the Angels, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts has indicated they’ll challenge the Yankees slugger rather than pitch around him.
Ohtani struggled mightily in last year’s World Series (.105 with no RBIs), and he’ll be motivated to make amends against a Yankees team that effectively neutralized him. However, Fried’s dominance against left-handed hitters (.172 BA allowed) presents a difficult challenge for the Japanese superstar.
Dodger Stadium Factor: How the Venue Influences Today’s Game
Dodger Stadium generally plays as a pitcher-friendly park, with a park factor of 0.95 for runs scored over the past three seasons. However, evening games in May tend to be more favorable for hitters as the temperature drops and the marine layer dissipates.
The Yankees will need to be mindful of the unique dimensions, particularly the high wall in right field where Judge injured his toe in 2023. The Dodgers have since added padding to that area, but it remains a potential hazard for outfielders.
An interesting factor is the emotional element – this marks the Yankees’ first return to Dodger Stadium since losing Games 1 and 2 of last year’s World Series. The psychological impact of returning to the scene of those defeats could work either way – as motivation or as an unwelcome reminder.
Expert Prediction & Best Bets for Yankees-Dodgers Showdown
Primary Play: Yankees Moneyline (-133) – 2 Units
Max Fried gives the Yankees a substantial pitching advantage that I believe transcends the Dodgers’ home-field edge. Fried’s 1.29 ERA isn’t a mirage – his underlying metrics support his dominance. Against a Dodgers lineup that’s been inconsistent outside of their big three (Ohtani, Freeman, Betts), I expect Fried to control this game. The Yankees’ superior bullpen provides additional comfort for the later innings. I’d play this up to -145.
Strong Value Play: Aaron Judge Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110)
Judge has been otherworldly this season, and this matchup sets up perfectly for him to continue his rampage. Gonsolin has allowed a .556 slugging percentage to right-handed power hitters this season, and Judge has exceeded 1.5 total bases in 31 of his 55 games (56%). Given these factors, getting plus-money odds presents tremendous value.
Worth Considering: Game Total Over 9 Runs (-108)
While Fried’s presence might suggest the under, Gonsolin’s struggles and the Dodgers’ depleted bullpen point toward runs. Both offenses rank among MLB’s top 5 in runs scored, and the emotional intensity of this World Series rematch should lead to some explosive innings. I wouldn’t be surprised to see 6-7 runs scored after Fried exits the game.
Player Props Worth Targeting in Today’s Matchup
| Player | Prop | Odds | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | Over 1.5 Total Bases | +110 | ★★★★★ |
| Max Fried | Over 6.5 Strikeouts | -125 | ★★★★☆ |
| Paul Goldschmidt | To Record an RBI | +135 | ★★★★☆ |
| Freddie Freeman | Under 1.5 Hits | -145 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Shohei Ohtani | To Hit a Home Run | +340 | ★★☆☆☆ |
Final Thoughts: Yankees’ Momentum Carries Them in Hollywood Rematch
This World Series rematch is more than just a regular season game – it’s a chance for the Yankees to exorcise some demons from last October while continuing their recent surge. With Fried pitching the way he has been, the Yankees have a significant advantage on the mound that should propel them to victory.
The Dodgers remain dangerous with their star-studded lineup, but their pitching staff’s injury issues have created vulnerabilities that the Yankees are well-positioned to exploit. Look for Judge to deliver another standout performance as New York makes an early statement in this highly anticipated series.
Score Prediction: Yankees 6, Dodgers 3
