After being dominated in Saturday’s 18-2 demolition, the New York Yankees (35-22) look to salvage the final game of this World Series rematch against the Los Angeles Dodgers (36-22) at Dodger Stadium. While the Yankees own the better overall record this season, this series has exposed some troubling weaknesses when facing elite competition. Tonight’s pitching matchup features a fascinating contrast between Dodgers ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Yankees swingman Ryan Yarbrough, who has quietly been a stabilizing force in their rotation. With Aaron Judge scorching hot (three homers in the series) but the rest of the Yankees lineup struggling, I see multiple betting angles worth attacking in this prime-time showdown.
Quick Picks:
- Best Bet: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+125) ★★★★☆
- Top Prop: Aaron Judge Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105) ★★★★★
- Value Play: Under 9 Runs (-110) ★★★☆☆
New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Odds & Latest Line Movement
| Market | New York Yankees | Los Angeles Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +145 | -175 |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-145) | -1.5 (+125) |
| Total | Over 9 (-110) | Under 9 (-110) |
Opening Line: Dodgers -165, Total 8.5
Sharp Money Analysis: Where Pro Bettors Are Placing Their Wagers
The line movement in this game is significant and telling. Opening at Dodgers -165, we’ve seen a push toward -175 despite nearly balanced ticket counts (53% on Dodgers). This signals professional money coming in on Los Angeles, likely reacting to Saturday’s blowout and the pitching mismatch. The total has also crept up from 8.5 to 9, though I believe that’s an overreaction to Saturday’s offensive explosion rather than a reflection of tonight’s pitching matchup. Sharps appear to be taking positions on both the Dodgers and potentially the under, creating a scenario where backing LA’s superior starter while expecting fewer runs presents value.
Pitching Matchup: Ryan Yarbrough vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto – Who Has the Edge?
New York Yankees: Ryan Yarbrough (2-0, 3.06 ERA)
- Has been surprisingly effective as a spot starter/swingman (3.06 ERA across 35.1 innings)
- Strong control numbers with just 11 walks against 35 strikeouts
- Facing his former team after spending 2024 with the Dodgers (received World Series ring Friday)
- Limited to around 80-85 pitches per outing, averaging just over 5 innings per start
Los Angeles Dodgers: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (6-3, 1.97 ERA)
- Has been absolutely dominant with a microscopic 1.97 ERA across 64 innings
- Elite strikeout numbers (75 K’s) with superb control (20 BB) and MLB-best 0.91 WHIP
- Holding opponents to a .183 batting average, including .173 against right-handed hitters
- Has gone at least 6 innings in 8 of his 11 starts while allowing 2 or fewer runs in 10 of 11
Advantage: Massive edge to Los Angeles. Yamamoto has emerged as a legitimate Cy Young contender, while Yarbrough, though effective, profiles as a back-end starter who typically gives 5 solid innings. The gap here is substantial.
Bullpen Breakdown
The Yankees bullpen has been severely taxed in this series, having to cover 13.2 innings over the first two games. Six different relievers were used Saturday, including high-leverage arms Devin Williams and Luke Weaver. With Fernando Cruz still on the IL (though expected back Tuesday), the Yankees are thin in the late innings and may need length from Yarbrough to avoid exposing their middle relief. The Dodgers’ bullpen situation is better but not ideal, as they’ve been without Blake Treinen and Evan Phillips (Tommy John surgery). Tanner Scott should be available for the ninth after rest, giving LA a slight edge in closing situations. Overall, the bullpen advantage goes to the Dodgers based on fresher arms and better depth.
Key Betting Trends & Team Statistics That Matter
- The Yankees have lost consecutive games by 3+ runs just once this season before this series
- Aaron Judge is batting .395 with 21 home runs and has homered in both games of this series
- The Dodgers are 21-8 at home this season, the best home record in the National League
- When Yamamoto starts, the Dodgers are 8-3 and have allowed 2 or fewer runs in 9 of 11 games
- The Yankees are 17-13 on the road this season but are 3-7 in their last 10 games against the Dodgers
- The Dodgers have scored 26 runs in the first two games of this series
- The Yankees are 22-8 when scoring first this season (though they’ve yet to do so in this series)
Aaron Judge’s Historic Pace: Can He Continue to Carry the Yankees?
Aaron Judge has been the lone bright spot for the Yankees in this series, launching three home runs while the rest of the lineup has struggled mightily. His slash line of .395/.506/.802 puts him on pace for one of the greatest offensive seasons in modern baseball history. However, facing Yamamoto presents a unique challenge – the Japanese ace has allowed just 6 home runs all season and limits right-handed power hitters exceptionally well. Still, Judge has proven capable of hitting even the best pitching, and his approach against elite velocity suggests he’ll get his opportunities. The question isn’t whether Judge will perform, but whether anyone else in the Yankees lineup will step up to support him.
Dodger Stadium Factor: How the Venue Influences Today’s Game
Dodger Stadium has played relatively neutral this season with a run-scoring factor of 1.02, but the park dimensions still favor pitchers in night games. With comfortable game-time temperatures expected around 72°F and minimal wind, conditions should be ideal for Yamamoto’s precise command. The venue has been particularly tough on visiting teams this season, with the Dodgers posting a dominant 21-8 home record. One concerning note for the Yankees: the right field line at Dodger Stadium has proven troublesome for visiting pitchers, and Yarbrough’s tendency to allow hard contact to right-handed hitters could be exploited. The stadium’s impact leans slightly toward the Dodgers, especially with the psychological edge they’ve established in the first two games.
Expert Prediction & Best Bets for Yankees-Dodgers Showdown
Primary Play: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+125)
This series has exposed a clear gap between these teams, and with Yamamoto on the mound, I expect that trend to continue. The Yankees’ depleted bullpen and struggling offense (outside of Judge) create a perfect storm for a third straight convincing Dodgers win. Yamamoto’s elite command and ability to generate soft contact should neutralize much of the Yankees lineup, while Yarbrough’s limitations (85-pitch ceiling, middling stuff) will eventually be exposed by LA’s relentless offense. At +125, the run line offers substantial value given the pitching mismatch and momentum differential. I expect a 5-2 or 6-2 type of game where the Dodgers pull away in the middle innings.
Strong Value Play: Aaron Judge Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105)
Despite facing an elite pitcher in Yamamoto, Judge has been so locked in that this prop offers tremendous value. He’s exceeded 1.5 total bases in 29 of his 47 games this season (62%) and has done so in both games of this series. His ability to damage against elite velocity (hitting .412 against pitches 95+ mph) matches up well even against Yamamoto’s arsenal. Whether via a home run or multiple hits, Judge should clear this number as the one Yankee who’s shown he can consistently perform against top competition. At nearly even money, this is my highest confidence player prop.
Worth Considering: Under 9 Runs (-110)
While the total has crept up to 9 after Saturday’s explosion, tonight’s pitching matchup suggests a much tighter affair. Yamamoto has been dominant at suppressing runs, and Yarbrough, for all his limitations, has been effective at keeping games close. The Yankees’ offense beyond Judge has been anemic in this series, and I expect Yamamoto to control them through at least 6 innings. Night games at Dodger Stadium tend to favor pitchers, and with both bullpens looking to rebound, I see this game staying under the total. I’d play this down to 8.5 at a worse price.
Player Props Worth Targeting in Today’s Matchup
| Player | Prop | Odds | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | Over 1.5 Total Bases | -105 | ★★★★★ |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Over 6.5 Strikeouts | -120 | ★★★★☆ |
| Shohei Ohtani | To Record an RBI | +125 | ★★★★☆ |
| Freddie Freeman | Over 1.5 Hits | +165 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Ryan Yarbrough | Under 4.5 Strikeouts | -145 | ★★★★☆ |
Final Thoughts: Yankees Need More Than Judge To Compete With Elite Teams
This series has been a reality check for the Yankees, revealing that despite their strong record, they still have significant work to do to compete with the elite teams in baseball. While Aaron Judge’s historic pace continues to impress, the rest of the lineup has disappeared against quality pitching. Tonight’s matchup against Yamamoto represents perhaps their toughest test yet, and without Gerrit Cole to match him, the pitching gap is simply too wide to overcome. Look for the Dodgers to complete the sweep with another convincing win, further cementing their status as the team to beat in baseball. The Yankees will regroup during Monday’s off day before starting a homestand where they’ll face more manageable competition.
Score Prediction: Dodgers 5, Yankees 2
