Minnesota Twins vs. Baltimore Orioles: MLB Betting Preview
Date: Thursday, May 15th, 2025 | 12:35 PM ET
Location: Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD
TV Coverage: MASN
Money Line: Twins +114 | Orioles -134
Total Line: 9
Weather: Chance of light rain, mid-60s temperature
Betting Preview
Here’s our comprehensive betting preview for the AL matchup between the Minnesota Twins and the Baltimore Orioles on Thursday, May 15th at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. We provide you with detailed analysis, current odds, and expert predictions to help with your handicapping decision based on the projected lineups and confirmed starting pitchers.
Betting Odds
| ML | RL | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | +114 | +1.5 | O 9 (-105) |
| BAL | -134 | -1.5 | U 9 (-114) |
There’s a chance of light rain for Thursday’s afternoon game in Baltimore, with temperatures expected in the mid-60s. Chris Paddack gets the start for Minnesota, while Tomoyuki Sugano takes the mound for Baltimore. The Twins are slight underdogs at +114, while the Orioles are favored at -134. The over/under line is set at 9 runs.
Minnesota enters riding a remarkable 10-game winning streak with a 23-20 record, while Baltimore sits at 15-26, desperately seeking to turn around their disappointing season.
Team Standings & Current Form
Minnesota Twins (23-20)
- Division Standing: 4th in AL Central, 5.5 games behind Tigers
- Divisional Record: 7-10
- Home/Road Split: 15-6 home, 8-14 road
- Current Streak: 10-game winning streak
- Road Performance: Won 4 straight road games as underdog
- As Favorite/Underdog: 23-20 as underdog (no games as favorite)
- Series Record: Won 3 straight series
Baltimore Orioles (15-26)
- Division Standing: 5th in AL East, 9 games behind Yankees
- Divisional Record: 6-6
- Home/Road Split: 8-11 home, 7-15 road
- Current Streak: Lost 2 straight
- Last 10 Games: 2-8
- Home Performance: Lost 4 straight at Camden Yards
- As Favorite/Underdog: 15-26 as underdog (0-0 as favorite)
- Series Record: 3-8-2
Previous Game Recap
Minnesota continued their winning ways with an 8-6 victory over Baltimore in the most recent meeting. The Twins entered as +125 underdogs but found a way to win in a high-scoring affair. Both teams scored in the first inning, and Baltimore added two more runs in the third. The game remained close until Minnesota scored the go-ahead run in the fifth, then broke it open with three insurance runs in the eighth inning.
Simeon Woods Richardson struggled for the Twins, lasting just four innings while allowing six runs and striking out four. Kody Funderburk earned the win in relief, while Cole Sands secured the save. Yennier Cano took the loss for Baltimore from the bullpen.
Cedric Mullins had a monster game for the Orioles with two home runs, going 2-for-4 with four RBIs. Heston Kjerstad also homered for Baltimore, going 1-for-2 with three RBIs.
Projected Lineups
Minnesota Twins
| Player | Batting Order | Position |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | 1 | CF |
| Trevor Larnach | 2 | DH |
| Ty France | 3 | 1B |
| Brooks Lee | 4 | 2B |
| Carlos Correa | 5 | SS |
| Ryan Jeffers | 6 | C |
| Willi Castro | 7 | RF |
| Royce Lewis | 8 | 3B |
| Harrison Bader | 9 | LF |
| Chris Paddack | – | SP |
Baltimore Orioles
| Player | Batting Order | Position |
|---|---|---|
| Cedric Mullins | 1 | CF |
| Gunnar Henderson | 2 | SS |
| Adley Rutschman | 3 | C |
| Ryan O’Hearn | 4 | DH |
| Ryan Mountcastle | 5 | 1B |
| Jackson Holliday | 6 | 2B |
| Ramón Laureano | 7 | RF |
| Heston Kjerstad | 8 | LF |
| Ramón Urías | 9 | 3B |
| Tomoyuki Sugano | – | SP |
Team Records
Minnesota Twins: 23-20 SU / OU 16-24 / Runline 23-20
Baltimore Orioles: 15-26 SU / OU 20-18 / Runline 15-26
Pitching Matchup Analysis
Chris Paddack (MIN)
- Season Record: 1-3
- ERA: 4.76
- WHIP: 1.29
- Starts: 8
- Opponents’ Batting Average: .245
- Home/Road Split: 3.34 ERA at home, 8.32 ERA on road
- Recent Form: Win in last start (7.1 IP, 1 ER)
- Last 3 Starts: No-decision in each outing
Tomoyuki Sugano (BAL)
- Season Record: 4-2
- ERA: 2.72
- WHIP: 1.01
- Quality Starts: 4 straight
- Opponents’ Batting Average: .225
- Home/Road Split: 2.84 ERA at home, 2.82 ERA on road
- Recent Form: Win in last start (7.1 IP, 1 ER)
- Last 4 Starts: Allowed just 3 total earned runs
Offensive Comparison
Minnesota Twins
- Runs Per Game: 4.1 overall
- Home/Road Split: 4.7 runs at home, 3.6 on road
- Team Batting Average: .239 (16th in MLB)
- Home Runs: 16th in MLB
Key Performers:
- Byron Buxton: Team-leading 9 HR, .258 BA
- Trevor Larnach: .250 BA, 7 HR (2nd on team), 23 RBIs (2nd on team), hot streak of 11-for-34 with 3 HR, 7 RBIs in last 8 games
Baltimore Orioles
- Runs Per Game: 3.8 overall
- Home/Road Split: 4.5 runs at home
- Team Batting Average: .227 (20th in MLB)
- Home Runs: 9th in MLB
- Isolated Power: 11th in MLB
Key Performers:
- Cedric Mullins: 8 HR, 25 RBIs (team leader), two-homer game in previous meeting
- Ryan O’Hearn: .287 BA, 7 HR
- Gunnar Henderson: Hot streak of 10-for-27 with 3 HR in last 6 games
Analysis and Prediction
This matchup presents a stark contrast between two teams heading in opposite directions. Minnesota’s 10-game winning streak has been one of the season’s most impressive runs, lifting them to 23-20 and within striking distance of .500. Meanwhile, Baltimore’s disappointing 15-26 start has them languishing at the bottom of the AL East, well behind expectations.
The pitching matchup heavily favors Baltimore. Tomoyuki Sugano has been excellent with a 2.72 ERA and four consecutive quality starts, while Chris Paddack’s concerning road splits (8.32 ERA away from home) suggest trouble ahead at Camden Yards. However, Paddack did have a strong last outing with 7.1 innings of one-run ball.
Offensively, both teams have struggled to score consistently, but Minnesota’s recent hot streak suggests they’ve found their rhythm. Trevor Larnach’s torrid hitting (.324 average with 3 HR in his last 8 games) has been a catalyst for the Twins’ surge.
The key factors to consider: Minnesota’s incredible momentum and confidence from their 10-game win streak, Baltimore’s home struggles (8-11 record, lost 4 straight at home), and the Twins’ resilience as underdogs (23-20 record in that role).
Despite Sugano’s pitching advantage, the Twins’ momentum and Baltimore’s continued struggles at home make Minnesota an attractive underdog play. The Orioles’ 2-8 record in their last 10 games reflects a team that simply isn’t executing at a high level.
Betting Pick: Minnesota Twins (+114)
Minnesota’s 10-game winning streak isn’t just a fluke – they’re playing inspired baseball and find ways to win close games. Even facing a quality pitcher like Sugano, the Twins have shown the ability to manufacture runs during their hot streak. Baltimore’s home struggles and overall disappointing season make them difficult to trust, even as home favorites. Take the hot team and the plus money with the Twins to extend their remarkable run.
