Detroit Tigers (32-17) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (27-22)
When: Wednesday, May 21, 2025, 1:15 PM EDT
Where: Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO
TV: Bally Sports Detroit, Bally Sports Midwest
Betting Odds
Runline: Cardinals -1.5 (+170) / Tigers +1.5 (-205)
Total: 8.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
Money Line: Cardinals -114 / Tigers -105
Riley Greene delivered the goods yesterday with a game-winning RBI double in the ninth inning as Detroit edged St. Louis 5-4. The Tigers have emerged as one of baseball’s biggest surprises, sitting atop the AL Central with the third-best record in baseball. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have been heating up in May and currently hold the NL’s second wild card position.
Sharp Money Take
This game opened with St. Louis as a -120 favorite and has since tightened to -114, indicating some respected money has come in on Detroit despite facing bullpen restrictions. The Tigers’ activation of Jake Rogers from the IL yesterday coupled with today’s daylight conditions at Busch Stadium is likely influencing sharper bettors to back the road team at plus money.
Key Matchup Analysis
Detroit will deploy a bullpen game led by Sean Guenther (0-0, 2.25 ERA) who has thrown more than 2 innings just once this season. The Tigers’ relief corps has been quietly effective, ranking 4th in MLB with a 3.12 ERA this season. Behind Guenther, Detroit has several fresh arms after Skubal went 5.2 innings yesterday.
Cardinals counter with Andre Pallante (4-2, 4.11 ERA) who has been inconsistent but effective at home, posting a 3.28 ERA in five Busch Stadium starts. Pallante struggles with efficiency, however, averaging just 5.1 innings per start while allowing a .262 opponent batting average.
Detroit’s bullpen success has been anchored by Will Vest (4-0, 2.14 ERA) and Tommy Kahnle (6 saves), both of whom worked yesterday but should be available in key spots if needed. The Cardinals’ relief corps ranks 21st in MLB with a 4.38 ERA and has been more volatile in high-leverage situations.
Situational Factors
The Tigers are 15-12 on the road this season and have won 6 of their last 10 games overall. Riley Greene continues his breakout season with 12 home runs and an .895 OPS while Kerry Carpenter has homered in two straight games.
The Cardinals have been playing better lately, going 7-3 in their last 10 games before yesterday’s loss. Their home record stands at 16-7, representing one of the best home-field advantages in baseball.
This is the rubber match of a three-game set after St. Louis took the opener 11-4 before yesterday’s 5-4 Tigers victory. Day games at Busch Stadium have produced a 54.4% under rate since the start of 2024, with shadows creating challenging hitting conditions in afternoon starts.
Statistical Edges
Detroit’s offense ranks 8th in MLB with 4.9 runs per game, while the Cardinals sit at 12th with 4.6 runs per game. The Tigers have hit 16 home runs over their last 10 games compared to the Cardinals’ 12, showing superior power production of late.
Lars Nootbaar leads St. Louis with 7 home runs while batting .269, and Alec Burleson has been hot with 4 home runs and 10 RBIs over his last 10 games. The Cardinals have been strong at home, outscoring opponents by 1.8 runs per game at Busch Stadium.
The Tigers have performed particularly well as underdogs this season, going 19-12 when getting plus money. They’ve outperformed their expected win total by 5.2 wins according to BaseRuns metrics, indicating some potential regression could be coming.
The Verdict
I’m taking the Tigers at -105 (1.5 units). Detroit’s balanced attack with strong bullpen support gives them the edge in what should be a competitive game. The Cardinals have inflated home numbers but face a Tigers team that has proven resilient on the road. Pallante’s inability to work deep into games negates the Cardinals’ supposed pitching advantage, as this will effectively be a bullpen game for both squads.
Consider a secondary play on Under 8.5 runs (-110), as both teams deployed high-leverage relievers yesterday and the afternoon start time at Busch Stadium historically suppresses scoring. Detroit’s Greene and Detroit’s bullpen versatility should be the difference in a low-scoring affair that stays under the total.
