Rangers vs. Yankees Prediction & Best Bets | Can Eovaldi Help Rangers Snap Skid?
Last Updated: May 22, 2025 at 10:30 AM ET
The struggling Texas Rangers (25-25) aim to salvage the final game of their three-game series against the red-hot New York Yankees (29-19) on Thursday afternoon at Yankee Stadium. The Rangers have dropped three straight games, including the first two of this series, while the Yankees have won 10 of their last 13 contests. With two former Cy Young contenders facing off, this matinee offers intriguing betting angles despite the early start time.
Quick Picks:
- Best Bet: Under 7.5 Runs (-110) ★★★★★
- Top Prop: Nathan Eovaldi Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+110) ★★★★☆
- Value Play: Rangers Moneyline (+135) ★★★☆☆
Rangers vs. Yankees Betting Odds & Latest Line Movement
| Market | Texas Rangers | New York Yankees |
|——–|————–|——————|
| Moneyline | +135 | -159 |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-155) | -1.5 (+135) |
| Total | Over 7.5 (-110) | Under 7.5 (-110) |
Opening Line: Yankees -155, Total 7.5
Sharp Money Analysis: Where Pro Bettors Are Placing Their Wagers
The line has seen minimal movement since opening, suggesting the market feels it’s priced correctly despite 62% of tickets backing the Yankees. The total has remained steady at 7.5, which I find interesting given Eovaldi’s stellar form and the fact that these teams have combined for just 14 runs through the first two games of the series. This stability indicates professional money is comfortable with the current number, but I see value in the under with two quality starters on the mound.
Pitching Matchup: Eovaldi vs. Rodón – Elite Arms Square Off
Texas Rangers: Nathan Eovaldi (4-2, 1.61 ERA)
– Dominant 1.61 ERA ranks 2nd in the American League
– Exceptional 0.77 WHIP with 65 strikeouts in 56 innings
– Has allowed just 1 earned run over his last 21 innings (0.43 ERA)
– Holding opponents to a .183 batting average on the season
New York Yankees: Carlos Rodón (5-3, 3.17 ERA)
– Solid 3.17 ERA with a 0.99 WHIP and 72 strikeouts in 59.2 innings
– Coming off a strong outing against the Mets (6 IP, 2 ER, 7 K)
– Has been more vulnerable at home (3.64 ERA) than on the road (2.70 ERA)
– Allowed 3+ earned runs in three of his last five starts
Advantage: Clear edge to Eovaldi. While Rodón has been good, Eovaldi has been performing at a Cy Young level and looks completely locked in over his recent stretch.
Bullpen Breakdown
The Yankees bullpen has been a strength all season, posting a collective 3.32 ERA. Luke Weaver has emerged as a reliable closer with six saves, while Devin Williams has rebounded from early struggles. However, the Yankees relief corps is showing signs of fatigue after being heavily used in the first two games of this series.
Texas has a slightly worse bullpen ERA at 3.78, but they’ve been more rested in this series despite the losses. With setup man Chris Martin on the IL and closer José Leclerc being used heavily, Bruce Bochy will need to be strategic with his relief options today.
Key Betting Trends & Team Statistics That Matter
- Rangers are just 8-15 on the road this season
- Yankees are an impressive 17-9 at home in 2025
- Texas is 12-1 when scoring at least 5 runs
- New York has won 7 of their last 10 games
- The under is 7-3 in Eovaldi’s 10 starts this season
- The Yankees lead MLB with 83 home runs (1.7 per game)
- Rangers are batting just .225 as a team with an 86 wRC+ (25th in MLB)
- Aaron Judge is hitting .403 with a .491 OBP, both leading the majors
Injury Impact: Key Players Missing For Both Teams
The Rangers are notably without shortstop Corey Seager (hamstring) and outfielder Evan Carter, significantly weakening their lineup. Catcher Jonah Heim left Wednesday’s game with a hand injury but might be available today.
The Yankees are missing significant pieces including Giancarlo Stanton (elbow), Jazz Chisholm (side), and Oswaldo Cabrera (ankle). Gerrit Cole’s absence from the rotation has been mitigated by strong performances from their other starters.
Yankee Stadium Factor: How the Venue Influences Today’s Game
Yankee Stadium’s short right field porch (314 feet) typically favors left-handed power hitters, but today’s pitching matchup could neutralize this effect:
- Eovaldi has allowed just 3 home runs all season
- Rodón has surrendered 7 homers, but mostly to right-handed hitters
- Early afternoon start time can make it difficult for hitters to see the ball
- Weather forecast calls for cloudy conditions with temperatures in the low 70s
Expert Prediction & Best Bets for Rangers-Yankees Showdown
Primary Play: Under 7.5 Runs (-110) – 2 Units
This is my strongest play for several reasons. Eovaldi is pitching at an elite level with a 1.61 ERA and hasn’t allowed more than 1 earned run in any of his last three starts. While Rodón has been more hittable, he’s still a quality arm who can dominate when he’s on. The Rangers offense has been anemic, ranking 25th in MLB with an 86 wRC+, and they’re facing a day game after a night game, which typically suppresses offense. Add in the fact that the Rangers have scored just 5 runs total in the first two games of this series, and the under looks extremely appealing.
Strong Value Play: Nathan Eovaldi Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+110)
Eovaldi has been racking up strikeouts with 65 in 56 innings (10.4 K/9). He’s cleared this number in 6 of his 10 starts this season, including three of his last four outings. The Yankees can be strikeout-prone despite their power, and Eovaldi should be motivated facing his former team. At plus money, this offers excellent value.
Worth Considering: Rangers Moneyline (+135)
While the Yankees have been red-hot, this price is too good to pass up with Eovaldi on the mound. The Rangers are desperate to avoid the sweep, and they have their ace going against a Yankees team that might be due for a letdown after two emotional wins. Eovaldi gives them a legitimate chance to steal this game, and at +135, there’s definite value here.
Player Props Worth Targeting in Thursday’s AL Showdown
| Player | Prop | Odds | Rating |
|——–|——|——|——–|
| Nathan Eovaldi | Over 6.5 Strikeouts | +110 | ★★★★☆ |
| Aaron Judge | Under 1.5 Total Bases | +120 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Jake Burger | To Hit a Home Run | +400 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Carlos Rodón | Under 7.5 Strikeouts | -125 | ★★★★☆ |
| Josh Jung | Over 0.5 RBI | +185 | ★★★☆☆ |
Final Thoughts: Pitching Dominance Should Prevail
This early afternoon matchup sets up perfectly for a low-scoring affair. Eovaldi has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season, and the Rangers are desperate to avoid being swept. While the Yankees have been hitting well, they’ll be facing a legitimate ace who should be able to neutralize even their potent lineup. Both offenses may struggle in the day game after a night game scenario, and I expect pitching to dominate. The under 7.5 runs is my strongest play, while the Rangers moneyline offers solid value with their ace on the mound.
