Giants vs. Nationals Prediction & Picks | Young Lefty Harrison Returns to Rotation
May 24, 2025 – 4:05 PM ET at Nationals Park
The San Francisco Giants (30-21) face the Washington Nationals (23-28) in the second game of their weekend series at Nationals Park on Saturday afternoon. After San Francisco took the opener 4-0 behind Landen Roupp’s stellar pitching, all eyes turn to young lefty Kyle Harrison, who makes his first start of the season for the Giants in place of the injured Justin Verlander. Jake Irvin takes the mound for the Nationals as they look to even the series.
Betting Odds
| Market | Giants | Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -141 | +119 |
| Run Line | -1.5 (+122) | +1.5 (-146) |
| Total | Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110) |
Pitching Matchup
San Francisco Giants: Kyle Harrison (0-0, 3.38 ERA, 0.94 WHIP)
The 23-year-old lefty makes his first start of the season after beginning the year at Triple-A Sacramento and then working out of the Giants’ bullpen. Harrison, who made 24 starts for San Francisco in 2024, has shown impressive velocity in his relief appearances, with his fastball averaging nearly 96 mph – up significantly from last season. In his four relief outings, he’s posted a solid 3.38 ERA with 7 strikeouts over 5.1 innings. Manager Bob Melvin has indicated Harrison will be limited to around 60 pitches today.
Washington Nationals: Jake Irvin (3-1, 3.88 ERA, 1.16 WHIP)
Irvin has been a bright spot in the Nationals’ rotation this season. The right-hander has pitched to a respectable 3.88 ERA across 60.1 innings, recording 40 strikeouts against 17 walks. While not overpowering, Irvin has shown solid command and the ability to keep his team in games, allowing three or fewer runs in 7 of his 10 starts this season.
Recent Form
Giants: 6-4 in their last 10 games with a 2.77 ERA and averaging 4.3 runs per game. The Giants’ bullpen has been outstanding, currently leading MLB with a 2.66 ERA.
Nationals: 6-4 in their last 10 games with a 4.29 ERA and averaging 4.9 runs per game. Washington’s offense has heated up recently, helping them win five straight before yesterday’s shutout loss.
Key Matchups to Watch
Jung Hoo Lee vs. Jake Irvin: The Giants’ outfielder brings a four-game hitting streak into today’s contest and is batting .282 with 6 homers on the season. He reached base twice in yesterday’s game.
James Wood vs. Kyle Harrison: The Nationals’ young slugger has 12 home runs this season and could provide a tough left-on-left matchup for Harrison, though he’s been limited to a .333 OPS (4-for-12) in his last three games.
Injury Concerns
Giants: Justin Verlander is on the 15-day IL with a pectoral strain, which has opened the door for Harrison to start.
Nationals: MacKenzie Gore left yesterday’s start with a leg issue (charley horse), but it’s not considered serious. Outfielder Jacob Young was placed on the 10-day IL, leading to prospect Daylen Lile’s call-up.
Expert Analysis and Prediction
Harrison’s first start of the season presents some uncertainty, particularly regarding his pitch count. While his stuff has looked electric out of the bullpen, starting is a different animal, and the Nationals’ lineup has shown some pop lately. However, the Giants’ bullpen continues to be a significant advantage, as we saw in yesterday’s game when they preserved the shutout after Roupp exited.
Irvin has been steady but unspectacular for Washington. He typically gives the Nationals a chance to win, but the Giants’ lineup has shown they can do damage against right-handed pitching.
This shapes up as a game where the Giants should have an edge based on their bullpen strength, even with Harrison on a pitch count. The total of 8.5 seems about right given the pitching matchup and both teams’ recent offensive output.
The Pick: Giants ML (-141) ⭐⭐⭐
I’m backing San Francisco on the moneyline despite Harrison’s limited pitch count. The Giants’ exceptional bullpen gives them a significant edge in the later innings, and their offense showed yesterday they can manufacture runs when needed. While Irvin has been solid for Washington, I expect the Giants to string enough quality at-bats together to push across 4-5 runs. Look for Jung Hoo Lee and Wilmer Flores to be key contributors as San Francisco takes a 2-0 series lead.
Score Prediction: Giants 5, Nationals 3
