Betting Odds
Runline: Reds -1.5 (+135) / Pirates +1.5 (-155)
Total: 8 (Over -110, Under -110)
Money Line: Reds -129 / Pirates +109
The Cincinnati Reds aim to continue their winning ways as they face the struggling Pittsburgh Pirates in the second game of their series at PNC Park. After taking the opener 7-1 yesterday, Cincinnati is riding a five-game winning streak while the Pirates have dropped four straight. Matt McLain’s emergence at the plate alongside the prolific Will Benson gives the Reds a dangerous offensive attack against a demoralized Pirates club just going through the motions at this point.
Sharp Money Take
While the public is backing the Reds at a 67% clip, the line has moved only slightly toward Cincinnati after opening at -125. Professional money typically shows restraint with road favorites in division games, but there’s been some sharp interest in the over, which ticked up from 7.5 to 8 despite cooler evening temperatures expected in Pittsburgh. This suggests respected bettors see value in the total despite PNC Park’s reputation as a pitcher-friendly venue.
Key Matchup Analysis
Nick Martinez (2-4, 3.66 ERA) takes the mound for Cincinnati showing improved command with a 40:13 K:BB ratio across 51.2 innings. His 1.16 WHIP has been particularly impressive in road starts, where he’s posted a 3.12 ERA with opponents hitting just .229 against him.
Bailey Falter (2-3, 4.02 ERA) continues to struggle with left-handed consistency for Pittsburgh. The soft-tossing lefty has allowed 6 home runs over his last four starts, with his HR/9 rate ballooning to 1.64 on the season. Even more concerning, his fastball velocity has dipped below 90 MPH in three straight outings.
The Reds’ bullpen has been reinvigorated during their winning streak, posting a 2.21 ERA over their last seven games. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh’s relievers have been taxed during their losing streak, working 13.1 innings in their last three games with a 5.40 ERA.
Situational Factors
Cincinnati is now 12-12 on the road this season but 4-0 against the Pirates in 2025, outscoring them 28-9 in those matchups. The Reds have won seven of their last nine games at PNC Park dating back to last season.
Pittsburgh’s home attendance has cratered to 17,269 per game (fifth-lowest in MLB), creating minimal home-field advantage. Former Steelers star Brett Keisel even publicly criticized the atmosphere at PNC Park after yesterday’s game.
The Pirates are 7-11 in one-run games this season, highlighting their inability to finish in close contests. They’re batting just .207 as a team over their last 10 games with a .276 on-base percentage.
Reds outfielder Will Benson, the NL Player of the Week, has been scorching hot with 5 home runs in his last four games, driving in 11 runs during that span.
Statistical Edges
The Reds’ offense is finding its rhythm, hitting .258 over their last 10 games while the Pirates have managed just a .207 average during the same stretch. Even more telling, Cincinnati is 20-2 when out-hitting their opponents this season.
Matt McLain’s gradual improvement (.222/.321/.400 with 4 extra-base hits in his last 13 games) has provided additional offensive depth to complement De La Cruz, who leads the team with 33 RBIs.
Bailey Falter has struggled against right-handed power, allowing a .476 SLG to righties this season. The Reds feature six right-handed batters with ISO marks above .150.
Cincinnati is 7-5 against NL Central opponents while Pittsburgh sits at a dismal 3-15 within the division. The Pirates have particularly struggled against teams with winning records, going 5-19 in those matchups.
The Verdict
Take the Reds -129 (2 units). Cincinnati’s five-game winning streak isn’t happening by accident – they’re finally putting together the offensive consistency that has eluded them for much of the season. Nick Martinez provides solid value on the mound against a Pirates lineup that’s hitting just .207 over their last 10 games, while Bailey Falter’s susceptibility to the long ball plays right into the Reds’ strengths.
For a secondary play, target Will Benson Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115). The NL Player of the Week is seeing the ball like it’s a beach ball right now, and Falter’s diminished velocity makes him vulnerable to Benson’s raw power. I’m expecting the Reds to extend their winning streak to six games with another comfortable victory over a Pirates team that seems to have already mentally checked out on their season.
