Cincinnati Reds (28-22) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (20-31)
When: Wednesday, May 21, 2025, 12:35 PM ET
Where: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA
TV: SportsNet PT and FDSOH
Betting Odds
Runline: Reds -1.5 (+133) / Pirates +1.5 (-159)
Total: 8 (Over -112, Under -108)
Money Line: Reds -127 / Pirates +107
The Reds and Pirates wrap up their three-game set with a matinee finale at PNC Park, where Pittsburgh just shut out Cincinnati 1-0 last night. The Pirates have consistently played low-scoring affairs, with only one of their last 10 games going over the total. Cincinnati has been equally stingy, getting shut out a league-leading eight times this season despite their winning record.
Sharp Money Take
This total opened at 8.5 (Even) before getting hammered down to 8 (-108), a significant half-run drop in a low-total game. Despite 54% of tickets landing on the over, the juice has shifted toward the under side, indicating professional money expects another pitching duel. Pittsburgh home games have stayed under in 7 of their last 9, averaging just 6.3 total runs.
Key Matchup Analysis
Brady Singer (5-2, 5.01 ERA) takes the mound for Cincinnati, bringing a deceptive ERA that doesn’t reflect his recent form. Since April 15, Singer has posted a 3.24 ERA with a strikeout rate of 8.7 K/9 across 33.1 innings. His sinker-slider combination has generated a 52.4% ground ball rate over his last five starts.
Andrew Heaney (2-3, 3.02 ERA) counters for Pittsburgh, continuing his career renaissance with the Pirates. The lefty has allowed just 2 earned runs in his last 19.2 innings at PNC Park. Most impressively, Heaney has held current Reds hitters to a collective .194 batting average with 23 strikeouts in 67 at-bats.
Both bullpens are relatively fresh after Martinez and Falter provided length in Tuesday’s pitchers’ duel. Cincinnati’s relievers have posted a 2.17 ERA over their last 9 games, while Pittsburgh’s pen holds a respectable 3.20 ERA over their last 10.
Situational Factors
Cincinnati’s offense has gone completely cold at times, getting shut out in 8 of 50 games this season—a staggering 16% of their contests. They’ve been limited to 3 or fewer runs in 7 of their last 12 road games.
Pittsburgh hasn’t scored more than 4 runs in a game for an unbelievable 25 consecutive games, the longest such streak in MLB since 2014. They’re averaging just 2.2 runs per game over their last 10 contests.
The Pirates are 11-33 as underdogs this season but have won three of their last five home games as dogs. Reds are 13-12 as favorites this season but have dropped five of their last eight day games.
The weather forecast calls for comfortable 74° game-time temperature with minimal wind, providing neutral playing conditions at pitcher-friendly PNC Park.
Statistical Edges
Elly De La Cruz leads Cincinnati with 8 home runs and 33 RBIs but is hitting just .214 over his last 10 games. Austin Hays has been their most consistent bat lately, hitting .319 with 6 homers on the season.
For Pittsburgh, Oneil Cruz and Bryan Reynolds provide the only consistent offensive threats. Cruz has 8 home runs despite the team’s collective offensive struggles, while Reynolds leads the club with 23 RBIs.
The under is 9-1 in Pittsburgh’s last 10 games and 9-1 in the Reds’ last 10 as well. Cincinnati has been involved in four 1-0 games already this season, more than any other MLB team.
The Verdict
Play Under 8 (2 units). The market adjustments tell the story here, with sharp money hammering this total down despite public money on the over. Both teams are in extreme offensive funks—the Pirates haven’t scored more than 4 runs in nearly a month, while Cincinnati leads MLB with 8 shutout losses.
When two teams combine for a 18-2 under record in their last 20 games, you have to follow the trend. The pitching matchup offers two starters who’ve been better than their season-long numbers suggest, working in a pitcher-friendly park with rested bullpens. I expect a finale similar to last night’s 1-0 affair, and wouldn’t be surprised to see this one finish 3-2 or 2-1.
For those looking for a side, I’m taking Pirates +107 as a lean. Heaney has been remarkably consistent at home and the Pirates should be motivated to win consecutive games after their recent slide.
