After a lopsided series opener where the Yankees jumped to an early lead and held on for a 9-6 victory, Saturday’s Red Sox-Yankees matchup features a compelling pitching duel between two of the AL’s most effective lefties. Boston sends breakout ace Garrett Crochet (5-4, 1.98 ERA) against New York’s crafty veteran Ryan Yarbrough (3-0, 2.83 ERA). Despite Boston’s recent struggles, Crochet gives them a legitimate chance to even this series, though the Yankees’ offensive prowess at home makes this a challenging handicap. I’ve identified several edges worth targeting in what should be a much more competitive second game.
Quick Picks:
- Best Bet: Under 8.5 Runs (-110) ★★★★☆
- Top Prop: Garrett Crochet Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+100) ★★★★☆
- Value Play: Boston Red Sox +1.5 (-145) ★★★☆☆
Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Betting Odds & Latest Line Movement
| Market | Boston Red Sox | New York Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +135 | -155 |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-145) | -1.5 (+125) |
| Total | Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110) |
Opening Line: Yankees -145, Total 9
Sharp Money Analysis: Where Pro Bettors Are Placing Their Wagers
The total has seen the most significant movement in this matchup, dropping from 9 to 8.5 despite nearly 60% of public tickets backing the over. This line movement against the public grain strongly suggests professional money is targeting the under, recognizing the pitching advantage both starters bring. While the moneyline has shown only slight movement from -145 to -155, the relatively stable line indicates oddsmakers feel they’ve priced this one correctly, with the Yankees rightfully favored at home but not by a significant margin given Crochet’s dominance this season.
Pitching Matchup: Garrett Crochet vs Ryan Yarbrough – Who Has the Edge?
Boston Red Sox: Garrett Crochet (5-4, 1.98 ERA)
- Has been electric with 101 strikeouts in 82 innings, ranking 3rd in MLB in K/9 (11.1)
- Holding opponents to a .208 batting average with an elite 1.06 WHIP
- Has allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in 11 of 13 starts this season
- Coming off 7 scoreless innings with 12 strikeouts against Tampa Bay
New York Yankees: Ryan Yarbrough (3-0, 2.83 ERA)
- Has been remarkably effective since joining the rotation with a 2.08 ERA in 5 starts
- Master of soft contact; ranks in 99th percentile in average exit velocity (84.1 mph)
- Excellent control with 40 strikeouts to just 11 walks in 41.1 innings
- Varying arm angles and pitch speeds (67.7-90.9 mph) consistently frustrate hitters
Advantage: Boston. While Yarbrough has been excellent, Crochet’s pure dominance gives him the edge. His combination of triple-digit velocity and wipeout breaking pitches makes him one of baseball’s most unhittable starters when on his game.
Bullpen Breakdown
The Yankees’ bullpen has become more complicated with Luke Weaver’s hamstring injury forcing Devin Williams back into the closer role. Williams has been shaky this season with a 4.96 ERA, though he did record the save in yesterday’s game. The rest of New York’s relief corps has been solid, ranking 9th in MLB with a 3.57 ERA.
Boston’s bullpen has performed admirably despite the team’s struggles, anchored by veteran Aroldis Chapman who continues to touch 100 mph with a 0.96 WHIP this season. However, the Red Sox relievers have been overworked recently due to short outings from their rotation, which could factor in if Crochet doesn’t work deep into the game.
Key Betting Trends & Team Statistics That Matter
- The Yankees are an MLB-best 23-9 at home this season and 8-2 in their last 10 overall
- Boston is just 12-20 on the road and has lost 9 of their last 12 games
- The Red Sox are 5-1 in Crochet’s last 6 starts, the lone loss being a 2-1 pitcher’s duel
- The Yankees are averaging 5.8 runs per game at home, 2nd best in MLB
- Boston is 10-6 when facing left-handed starters this season
- The under is 7-3 in Crochet’s last 10 starts and 4-1 in Yarbrough’s 5 starts
Aaron Judge vs. Garrett Crochet: Elite Power Meets Dominant Strikeout Artist
This matchup features the most compelling individual battle of the night. Judge (.397 BA, 19 HR) continues his MVP-caliber season but faces his toughest test in Crochet, whose four-seamer averages 97.6 mph with exceptional movement. Judge is hitting .341 against lefties this season but has a 28% strikeout rate against southpaws with elite velocity. I expect Crochet to challenge Judge repeatedly rather than pitch around him, creating appointment viewing whenever the Yankees slugger steps in against Boston’s ace.
Yankee Stadium Factor: How the Venue Influences Today’s Game
Yankee Stadium’s dimensions remain a significant factor, particularly with its notorious short porch in right field (314 feet). However, this advantage may be somewhat neutralized by the lefty-lefty matchup, as both starters can work away from right-handed power hitters. The forecast calls for mild temperatures around 74°F with minimal wind, suggesting neutral playing conditions. Both pitchers have shown the ability to suppress home runs (Crochet 0.8 HR/9, Yarbrough 0.9 HR/9), which further supports the under as a strong play despite the venue’s hitter-friendly reputation.
Expert Prediction & Best Bets for Red Sox-Yankees Showdown
Primary Play: Under 8.5 Runs (-110)
This total has already dropped from 9 to 8.5 with sharp money, but I still see value at the current number. Crochet has been absolutely dominant, while Yarbrough’s ability to induce soft contact and change speeds has kept opponents off balance. The Red Sox offense has scuffled, ranking 22nd in runs per game over the last two weeks (3.8), and Yarbrough’s unique arsenal should keep them contained. While the Yankees’ lineup is potent, Crochet has the elite stuff to minimize damage. I expect this game to stay under the total with a final score in the 4-3 range.
Strong Value Play: Garrett Crochet Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+100)
Even money on Crochet’s strikeout prop offers excellent value. He’s recorded 8+ strikeouts in 9 of his 13 starts this season, including double-digit Ks in four outings. The Yankees do strike out at a below-average rate (20.3%, 9th lowest in MLB), but Crochet’s elite stuff plays against any lineup. Coming off 12 strikeouts in his last start, he should be able to rack up at least 8 Ks against a Yankees lineup that will feature several right-handed hitters vulnerable to his devastating slider.
Worth Considering: Boston Red Sox +1.5 (-145)
With Crochet on the mound, the Red Sox should stay competitive throughout. Six of his last seven starts have been decided by 2 runs or fewer, and I expect this game to follow that pattern. While the -145 price isn’t ideal, getting Boston and their ace with the run line offers insurance against a one-run defeat in what should be a low-scoring, closely contested game. The Red Sox have covered the +1.5 in 7 of Crochet’s last 9 starts.
Player Props Worth Targeting in Today’s Matchup
| Player | Prop | Odds | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Crochet | Over 7.5 Strikeouts | +100 | ★★★★☆ |
| Ryan Yarbrough | Under 4.5 Strikeouts | -125 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Aaron Judge | Under 1.5 Total Bases | +115 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Rafael Devers | To Record an RBI | +160 | ★★★★☆ |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | Over 0.5 Stolen Bases | +250 | ★★★☆☆ |
Final Thoughts: Pitching Prowess Will Define This Rivalry Showdown
After Friday’s offensive showcase, expect Saturday’s game to highlight the pitching talent on both sides. Crochet gives the struggling Red Sox legitimate hope in this matchup, but the Yankees’ home-field advantage and superior lineup depth give them a slight edge overall. The most appealing play remains the under, as both southpaws have the tools to limit hard contact and keep this game lower scoring than the typical Yankees-Red Sox slugfest. With Crochet’s strikeout potential and the likelihood of a close game, there’s value to be found on Boston’s side of the ledger even if New York ultimately prevails in a tight contest.
Score Prediction: Yankees 4, Red Sox 3
