The Pittsburgh Pirates (19-36) travel to Chase Field tonight to face the Arizona Diamondbacks (27-27) in the second game of their three-game series. Arizona dominated the opener with a 5-0 shutout, extending Pittsburgh’s road losing streak to four games. Tonight’s pitching matchup features a significant mismatch as rookie Michael Burrows takes the mound for the Pirates against Diamondbacks ace Corbin Burnes.
Quick Picks:
- Best Bet: Diamondbacks -1.5 (-110) ★★★★☆
- Top Prop: Corbin Burnes Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-130) ★★★★☆
- Value Play: Under 9 Runs (-105) ★★★☆☆
Pirates vs Diamondbacks Betting Odds & Latest Line Movement
| Market | Pirates | Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +207 | -256 |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-110) | -1.5 (-110) |
| Total | Over 9 (-115) | Under 9 (-105) |
Opening Line: Diamondbacks -240, Total 9
Sharp Money Analysis: Where Pro Bettors Are Placing Their Wagers
The Diamondbacks’ bullpen showed signs of improvement last night with Justin Martinez looking dominant in a high-leverage situation, escaping a bases-loaded, no-out jam. Overall, Arizona’s relief corps has been inconsistent but has better overall numbers than Pittsburgh’s group.
Pitching Matchup: Michael Burrows vs Corbin Burnes – Who Has the Edge?
Pirates: Michael Burrows (0-1, 7.20 ERA)
- 7.20 ERA, 1.20 WHIP in 5 innings pitched
- Only 3 strikeouts with 2 walks
- Opponents hitting .267 against him
- Limited pitch arsenal that hasn’t translated to the major league level yet
Diamondbacks: Corbin Burnes (3-2, 2.73 ERA)
- 2.73 ERA, 1.18 WHIP across 52.2 innings pitched
- 51 strikeouts to 23 walks
- Holding opponents to a .230 batting average
- Coming off a strong outing where he pitched 7 innings, allowing 3 ER with 8 Ks
Advantage: Heavily favors Arizona. Burnes has established himself as a frontline starter while Burrows is still finding his footing at the MLB level.
Bullpen Breakdown
The Pirates’ bullpen has been overtaxed due to short outings from their starters, though Braxton Ashcraft provided a bright spot with three scoreless innings in his MLB debut yesterday. Still, Pittsburgh ranks near the bottom of the league in bullpen ERA.
Key Betting Trends & Team Statistics That Matter
- Pirates are 6-20 on the road this season
- Pittsburgh has been shut out 9 times this year, most in MLB
- Diamondbacks are 14-13 at home this season
- Pirates averaging just 2.98 runs per game (worst in MLB)
- Diamondbacks scoring 5.04 runs per game (8th in MLB)
- Pirates are 4-24 when allowing a home run this season
- Corbin Burnes has allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in 6 of his 9 starts
Ketel Marte: Providing the Spark for Arizona’s Offense
Ketel Marte has been on fire lately, with a 9-game hitting streak that includes going 13-for-41 with two doubles and three home runs over his last 10 games. The switch-hitting infielder had an RBI single in yesterday’s game and appears to be finding his rhythm at the plate. His presence in the heart of Arizona’s lineup creates significant problems for opposing pitchers.
Chase Field Factor: How the Venue Influences Today’s Game
Chase Field has played more neutral this season than in years past when it was an extreme hitter’s park. The installation of the humidor and other adjustments have balanced the playing field somewhat. However, it still favors hitters slightly, particularly power hitters. The ballpark’s dimensions can create challenges for inexperienced pitchers like Burrows, who may struggle with command against a patient Diamondbacks lineup.
Expert Prediction & Best Bets for Pirates-Diamondbacks Showdown
Primary Play: Diamondbacks -1.5 (-110)
The pitching mismatch here is simply too significant to ignore. Corbin Burnes has established himself as a frontline starter with a 2.73 ERA and should dominate a Pirates lineup that’s scoring fewer than 3 runs per game and was just shut out yesterday. Michael Burrows struggled in his MLB debut (7.20 ERA) and now faces a much more potent Arizona offense in a hitter-friendly environment. The Diamondbacks’ offense found its groove yesterday with 10 hits, and I expect that momentum to continue today.
Strong Value Play: Under 9 Runs (-105)
While the Diamondbacks should score their share of runs, I don’t expect the Pirates to contribute much to the total. Pittsburgh has the worst offense in baseball, averaging under 3 runs per game, and Burnes should keep them in check. Arizona may not need to push for a huge offensive output if they get an early lead, which could keep this game under the total. The Pirates have also gone under in their last 3 road games.
Worth Considering: Corbin Burnes Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-130)
The Pirates strike out 8.6 times per game, and Burnes has excellent swing-and-miss stuff with 51 Ks in 52.2 innings. This free-swinging Pittsburgh lineup should provide ample opportunities for Burnes to rack up strikeouts, especially if he works deep into the game as expected. He recorded 8 strikeouts in his last outing, and I expect similar production tonight against a struggling Pirates offense.
Player Props Worth Targeting in Today’s Matchup
| Player | Prop | Odds | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corbin Burnes | Over 6.5 Strikeouts | -130 | ★★★★☆ |
| Ketel Marte | Over 1.5 Total Bases | -115 | ★★★★☆ |
| Bryan Reynolds | Under 1.5 Total Bases | -120 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Josh Naylor | To Hit a Home Run | +350 | ★★★☆☆ |
Final Thoughts: Pirates’ Road Struggles Likely to Continue Against Burnes
This matchup features two teams heading in opposite directions. The Diamondbacks have stabilized at .500 and showed signs of life in yesterday’s shutout win, while the Pirates continue to struggle mightily, especially on the road. The pitching matchup couldn’t be more lopsided, with established ace Corbin Burnes facing rookie Michael Burrows.
Score Prediction: Diamondbacks 6, Pirates 1
