The first-place Chicago Cubs (42-28) welcome the struggling Pittsburgh Pirates (29-42) to Wrigley Field on Saturday afternoon for the second game of their weekend series. This NL Central matchup features a significant pitching mismatch that heavily favors the home team. While the Pirates managed to sneak out a 2-1 extra-inning win on Friday, Matthew Boyd’s emergence as a frontline starter for Chicago creates a substantial advantage against a Pirates team that’s been inconsistent all season. Pittsburgh’s Michael Burrows has shown flashes but remains a work in progress, setting up what should be a comfortable win for the division leaders.
Quick Picks:
- Best Bet: Chicago Cubs -1.5 (+105) ★★★★☆
- Top Prop: Matthew Boyd Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-115) ★★★★☆
- Value Play: Pete Crow-Armstrong 2+ Total Bases (+110) ★★★☆☆
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Betting Odds & Latest Line Movement
| Market | Pittsburgh Pirates | Chicago Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +189 | -230 |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-125) | -1.5 (+105) |
| Total | Over 7.5 (-110) | Under 7.5 (-110) |
Opening Line: Cubs -210, Total 7.5
Sharp Money Analysis: Where Pro Bettors Are Placing Their Wagers
The line movement in this matchup tells a clear story. The Cubs opened as -210 favorites and have been bet up to -230, indicating strong professional confidence in the home team despite yesterday’s narrow loss. What’s even more telling is the run line price improving for Chicago backers, moving from -105 to +105, suggesting sharps see value in the Cubs covering the 1.5 spread. The total has remained steady at 7.5, with some books showing slight juice toward the under. This lack of movement indicates professionals are respecting Boyd’s recent dominance and the Pirates’ continued offensive struggles.
Pitching Matchup: Michael Burrows vs Matthew Boyd – Who Has the Edge?
Pittsburgh Pirates: Michael Burrows (1-1, 5.00 ERA)
- Still finding his footing at the MLB level with just 18 innings pitched this season
- Concerning 1.39 WHIP indicates frequent baserunners and potential trouble spots
- Showing some swing-and-miss ability with 17 K’s, but also issued 7 walks
- Has yet to pitch more than 5 innings in any of his MLB starts
Chicago Cubs: Matthew Boyd (5-3, 2.89 ERA)
- Having a remarkable bounce-back season with a stellar 2.89 ERA across 74.2 innings
- Impressive 70:18 K:BB ratio shows excellent command and swing-and-miss stuff
- Holding opponents to a .236 batting average and limiting hard contact
- Coming off three consecutive quality starts, going at least 6 innings in each
Advantage: Significant edge to Chicago. Boyd has emerged as one of the NL’s most consistent starters, while Burrows is still figuring things out at the major league level. The disparity in experience, current form, and ability to work deep into games heavily favors the Cubs.
Bullpen Breakdown
The Cubs’ bullpen has been solid if unspectacular this season, with multiple contributors rather than one dominant closer. Ryan Pressly and Daniel Palencia have each recorded 5 saves, while Brad Keller has been excellent in a setup role with 10 holds. For Pittsburgh, David Bednar remains their most reliable arm with 10 saves, but his supporting cast has been inconsistent. The Pirates’ relief corps has been overworked recently, logging significant innings in tight games. Chicago’s bullpen is better rested and has more reliable options for high-leverage situations, giving them another advantage in this matchup.
Key Betting Trends & Team Statistics That Matter
- The Cubs are 21-12 at Wrigley Field this season, showing tremendous home field advantage
- Pittsburgh has struggled mightily on the road, posting a dismal 10-23 record away from PNC Park
- The Cubs have taken 3 of 5 meetings with the Pirates this season, including two blowout wins
- Chicago ranks 4th in MLB in team slugging percentage (.439), while Pittsburgh sits 28th (.341)
- The Pirates are 9-29 in games where they allow at least one home run
- Matthew Boyd has allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in 9 of his 13 starts this season
- The Cubs have outscored opponents by 103 runs this season, while the Pirates have been outscored by 52
Pete Crow-Armstrong: Cubs’ Young Star Continues Breakout Season
Pete Crow-Armstrong has emerged as one of baseball’s most exciting young players in 2025. The Cubs’ centerfielder has been a revelation both offensively and defensively, posting an .856 OPS with 18 home runs and 21 stolen bases through 68 games. His all-around game makes him a constant threat, and he’s been particularly effective at Wrigley Field, where his left-handed swing is perfectly suited for the friendly confines. Crow-Armstrong homered in yesterday’s game against Pittsburgh and appears to be seeing the ball extremely well. Against the inexperienced Burrows, he should have multiple opportunities to impact today’s contest.
Wrigley Field Factor: How the Venue Influences Today’s Game
Saturday’s forecast calls for temperatures in the mid-70s with a 10-12 mph wind blowing out to center field – conditions that typically favor hitters at Wrigley Field. This wind pattern could spell trouble for Burrows, who has already shown vulnerability to the long ball in his brief MLB career. Meanwhile, Boyd’s ability to keep the ball on the ground (46.5% ground ball rate) helps neutralize these conditions. The midday start time creates challenging shadows for hitters in the early innings, which could give both pitchers an initial advantage before the offense takes over in the middle frames.
Expert Prediction & Best Bets for Pirates-Cubs Showdown
Primary Play: Chicago Cubs -1.5 (+105)
I’m confidently backing the Cubs to win by multiple runs today. The pitching mismatch is substantial – Boyd has been one of the NL’s most reliable starters while Burrows remains a work in progress. Chicago’s lineup, which ranks among the best in baseball, should feast against Pittsburgh’s inexperienced starter. The Cubs have been dominant at Wrigley Field (21-12), while the Pirates struggle mightily on the road (10-23). At plus-money odds, this run line offers excellent value. I would play this down to -105.
Strong Value Play: Matthew Boyd Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-115)
Boyd has been racking up strikeouts consistently, averaging nearly a strikeout per inning this season. The Pirates rank 8th in MLB in strikeouts, fanning 8.73 times per game. Boyd has exceeded this strikeout total in 7 of his last 10 starts, and he’s facing a Pittsburgh lineup that struggles against left-handed pitching. His improved command and swing-and-miss stuff should allow him to comfortably clear this number. The juice is reasonable at -115, making this a strong secondary play.
Worth Considering: Pete Crow-Armstrong 2+ Total Bases (+110)
Crow-Armstrong continues to impress as one of baseball’s breakout stars, and this matchup sets up perfectly for him. He homered yesterday and should continue seeing the ball well against Burrows, who has struggled to limit hard contact. The wind blowing out at Wrigley further enhances Crow-Armstrong’s chances of collecting extra-base hits. At plus-money odds, this prop offers solid value on a player who’s been consistently productive in the heart of Chicago’s lineup.
Player Props Worth Targeting in Today’s Matchup
| Player | Prop | Odds | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Boyd | Over 6.5 Strikeouts | -115 | ★★★★☆ |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | 2+ Total Bases | +110 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Nico Hoerner | To Record an RBI | +145 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Kyle Tucker | To Hit a Home Run | +325 | ★★★★☆ |
| Oneil Cruz | Under 1.5 Total Bases | -130 | ★★★☆☆ |
Final Thoughts: Cubs’ Superior Pitching and Offense Should Dominate
The Cubs’ combination of elite starting pitching and powerful offense creates a perfect storm against a struggling Pirates team. Boyd has emerged as a frontline starter, giving Chicago a substantial edge on the mound, while their lineup continues to be one of baseball’s best. Pittsburgh managed to steal yesterday’s game in extra innings, but that result feels like an outlier rather than a trend. The Pirates have been particularly vulnerable on the road, and facing a quality left-hander like Boyd should prove challenging for their inconsistent offense. Expect the Cubs to bounce back with a convincing win that reminds everyone why they’re leading the NL Central.
Score Prediction: Chicago Cubs 6, Pittsburgh Pirates 2
