Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cleveland Guardians: MLB Betting Preview
Date: Saturday, May 10th, 2025 | 6:10 PM ET
Location: Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH
TV Coverage: NSPPH
Money Line: Phillies -118 | Guardians +115
Total Line: 7.5 (Over -111, Under +105)
Run Line: Phillies -1.5 (+140) | Guardians +1.5 (-160)
Betting Preview
Here’s our comprehensive betting preview for the interleague matchup between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Cleveland Guardians on Saturday, May 10th at Progressive Field. We provide you with detailed analysis, current odds, and expert predictions to help with your handicapping decision based on the projected lineups and confirmed starting pitchers.
Team Standings & Current Form
Philadelphia Phillies (22-16)
- Division Standing: 2nd in NL East, 2.5 games behind Mets
- Series Record: 8-3-1
- Home/Road Split: 13-6 home, 9-10 road
- Current Streak: Lost 3 straight
- Last 10 Games: 7-3
- Run Production: 4.76 runs per game
- Run Allowed: 4.39 runs per game
Cleveland Guardians (23-15)
- Division Standing: 2nd in AL Central, 2.5 games behind Tigers
- Divisional Record: 10-3
- Home/Road Split: 12-5 home, 11-10 road
- Current Streak: Won 6 straight
- Last 10 Games: 8-2
- Over/Under Record (Last 10): 8-2
- Run Production: 4.29 runs per game
- Run Allowed: 4.50 runs per game
Recent Results
Cleveland Guardians – Last 5 Games
| Date | Opponent | Result | Money Line | O/U | Starting Pitcher (IP) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2025 | vs PHI | W 6-0 | W +101 | Under 7.5 | G. Williams (5.0) |
| May 7, 2025 | @ WAS | W 8-6 | W -104 | Over 9.0 | L. Allen (4.0) |
| May 6, 2025 | @ WAS | W 9-1 | W -106 | Over 9.5 | B. Lively (5.1) |
| May 4, 2025 | @ TOR | W 5-4 | W -112 | Over 8.5 | T. Bibee (5.0) |
| May 3, 2025 | @ TOR | W 5-3 | W +140 | Over 7.5 | G. Williams (4.0) |
Game 1 Recap
The Guardians dominated the series opener with a 6-0 shutout victory over the Phillies. Gavin Williams earned the win for Cleveland, tossing five scoreless innings with eight strikeouts. Aaron Nola struggled for Philadelphia, surrendering four earned runs over five innings of work.
This victory extended Cleveland’s winning streak to six games, during which they’ve shown impressive offensive firepower and consistent pitching. The Guardians have been particularly strong as underdogs, winning outright in four of their last five games in that role.
Projected Lineups
Philadelphia Phillies
| Player | Batting Order | Position |
|---|---|---|
| Bryson Stott | 1 | 2B |
| Trea Turner | 2 | SS |
| Bryce Harper | 3 | 1B |
| Kyle Schwarber | 4 | DH |
| Nick Castellanos | 5 | RF |
| Max Kepler | 6 | LF |
| J.T. Realmuto | 7 | C |
| Alec Bohm | 8 | 3B |
| Johan Rojas | 9 | CF |
| Ranger Suárez | – | SP |
Cleveland Guardians
| Player | Batting Order | Position |
|---|---|---|
| Steven Kwan | 1 | LF |
| José Ramírez | 2 | 3B |
| Carlos Santana | 3 | 1B |
| Kyle Manzardo | 4 | DH |
| Jhonkensy Noel | 5 | RF |
| Gabriel Arias | 6 | 2B |
| Angel Martínez | 7 | CF |
| Austin Hedges | 8 | C |
| Brayan Rocchio | 9 | SS |
| Tanner Bibee | – | SP |
Pitching Matchup Analysis
Ranger Suárez (PHI)
- Recent Form: 0-5 record, 8.10 ERA over last 5 starts
- Last Start (May 4, 2025): 3.2 IP, 7 H, 7 ER, 6 K, 2 BB vs. Diamondbacks (PHI lost 11-9)
- Last vs. Cleveland (Jul 21, 2023): 5.0 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 5 K, 2 BB (PHI lost 6-5)
- Average IP (Last 5): 4.0 innings
- Pitch Count (Last 5): 86.6 pitches per start
Tanner Bibee (CLE)
- Season Record: 3-2
- ERA: 4.26
- Home/Road Split: 1.43 ERA at home vs. significantly higher on road
- Last Start (May 4, 2025): W vs. Toronto (5.0 IP, 2 ER)
- Note: Has allowed 9 home runs this season
Team Pitching Comparison
| Team | ERA | AVG. | OBP | WHIP | IP | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia | 3.94 | .250 | .312 | 1.27 | 8.2 | 1.1 | 2.8 | 9.8 |
| Cleveland | 4.19 | .261 | .338 | 1.42 | 8.2 | 1.1 | 3.8 | 8.3 |
Starting Pitching
| Team | Runs/9 | ERA | AVG. | WHIP | IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia | 3.88 | 3.46 | .240 | 1.22 | 5.1 |
| Cleveland | 4.82 | 4.54 | .262 | 1.49 | 5.0 |
Bullpen
| Team | Runs/9 | ERA | AVG. | WHIP | IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia | 5.30 | 4.74 | .267 | 1.36 | 3.1 |
| Cleveland | 4.29 | 3.72 | .260 | 1.33 | 3.2 |
Analysis and Prediction
This interleague matchup presents an intriguing contrast between a Phillies team that’s lost three straight and a red-hot Guardians squad riding a six-game winning streak. Cleveland has been particularly impressive during this stretch, going a perfect 6-0 with an 8-2 mark over their last 10 games.
The pitching matchup strongly favors Cleveland. Ranger Suárez has struggled mightily, posting an 0-5 record with an 8.10 ERA over his last five starts. His season debut against Arizona was particularly concerning (3.2 IP, 7 ER). In contrast, Tanner Bibee has been excellent at Progressive Field with a stellar 1.43 ERA at home.
Though Philadelphia’s overall pitching statistics are slightly better (3.94 ERA vs. 4.19), Cleveland’s bullpen has been significantly more effective (3.72 ERA vs. 4.74). This could prove crucial in what projects to be a close game.
The Guardians’ 12-5 home record demonstrates their comfort level at Progressive Field, while the Phillies have been mediocre on the road at 9-10. Cleveland has also been remarkably successful as underdogs, winning outright in numerous recent games where they weren’t favored.
Recent trends strongly favor Cleveland:
- 8-2 record in their last 10 games
- 6-game winning streak
- 12-5 home record
- 8-2 Over/Under record in last 10 games (indicating consistent offense)
- Dominant 6-0 shutout in Game 1 of this series
With momentum firmly on their side and the pitching matchup in their favor, the Guardians represent strong value as +115 home underdogs.
Betting Pick: Cleveland Guardians (+115)
Given Cleveland’s six-game winning streak, strong home performance (12-5), Bibee’s excellent home ERA (1.43), and Suárez’s recent struggles (0-5, 8.10 ERA in last five starts), the Guardians offer tremendous value as +115 home underdogs. Look for Cleveland to extend their winning streak to seven games behind another strong performance at Progressive Field.
