Baltimore Orioles (15-32) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (24-25)
When: Wednesday, May 21, 2025, 1:10 PM EDT
Where: American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI
TV: FanDuel Sports Wisconsin
Betting Odds
Runline: Brewers -1.5 (+155) / Orioles +1.5 (-180)
Total: 8.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
Money Line: Brewers -126 / Orioles +106
The Orioles limp into Wednesday’s series finale amid an eight-game losing skid that’s seen them outscored by 23 runs over their last ten games. Meanwhile, the Brewers have stabilized after early struggles, riding their strong home record (15-9) into this favorable matchup against baseball’s most disappointing team of 2025.
Sharp Money Take
Despite Baltimore’s struggles, we’re seeing some buyback on the Orioles at this price. The line opened Brewers -130 and has drifted slightly to -126 despite 58% of tickets backing Milwaukee. This minor reverse line movement suggests professionals see some value on the Orioles as underdogs, but the movement hasn’t been significant enough to warrant a contrarian approach.
Key Matchup Analysis
Sugano has been Baltimore’s lone bright spot in their rotation, posting a 3.08 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP through eight starts. His splitter has generated a 41.2% whiff rate, but he’s facing a Brewers offense that’s shown improvement at home, averaging 4.6 runs per game at American Family Field.
Chad Patrick enters with a respectable 3.35 ERA despite a 2-4 record. His slider has limited right-handed hitters to a .201 batting average, which bodes well against Baltimore’s predominantly right-handed lineup. The Orioles’ lineup has been particularly anemic during their skid, batting .237 over their last ten games.
Baltimore’s bullpen has been taxed, posting a 6.38 ERA during this eight-game slide. Felix Bautista’s struggles highlight the unit’s issues, as he’s allowed runs in three of his last four appearances after starting the season strong.
Situational Factors
The Orioles are in disarray after firing manager Brandon Hyde over the weekend. Interim manager Tony Mansolino is winless (0-3) since taking over, and the team just lost outfielder Ramon Laureano to an ankle injury in last night’s game.
Milwaukee is gaining momentum with their third straight win last night, powered by three home runs. The Brewers are 15-9 at home this season compared to just 9-16 on the road.
The Orioles are an MLB-worst 1-9 in their last ten games and 7-17 on the road this season. They’ve allowed at least one home run in 35 of 47 games, going 9-26 in those contests.
Statistical Edges
Rhys Hoskins is Milwaukee’s hottest hitter, batting .297 with nine doubles and six homers. He’s 2-for-3 with a double and a homer in this series already.
Baltimore’s pitchers own the second-worst ERA in baseball at 5.53, ahead of only the Rockies. The Orioles have surrendered 10+ runs in four of their last ten games.
Jackson Holliday shows signs of life amid Baltimore’s struggles, as the former top prospect is batting .302 with an .858 OPS over his last 25 games.
Milwaukee’s young starter Logan Henderson has been exceptional, becoming the first pitcher in franchise history to win each of his first three career starts.
The Verdict
I’m backing the Brewers -126 (2 units) against a Baltimore team in complete freefall. While Sugano gives the Orioles their best chance to end this skid, Baltimore’s bullpen issues, combined with a lineup that’s significantly underperforming, make the home team the right side.
The Brewers have momentum, are playing much better at home, and face an organization in chaos after firing their manager. Chad Patrick’s ability to neutralize right-handed hitters should limit Baltimore’s already struggling offense.
Secondary play: Under 8.5 runs (1 unit). Afternoon games at American Family Field have trended under this season, and with Sugano capable of keeping Baltimore competitive early, we should see lower scoring before Milwaukee pulls away late. Don’t be surprised if the Orioles extend their losing streak to nine games with another anemic offensive showing.
