The New York Yankees continue their three-game series with the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field on Saturday afternoon. The Yankees will send ace Max Fried to the mound, who brings an immaculate 6-0 record and microscopic 1.29 ERA into the thin air of Denver. He’ll face struggling Rockies lefty Kyle Freeland, who remains winless at 0-6 with a bloated 5.68 ERA. After the Rockies shocked the Yankees with a 3-2 victory in the series opener Friday night, New York will look to bounce back with their best starter on the hill.
Quick Picks:
– Best Bet: Yankees -1.5 (-202) ★★★★☆
– Top Prop: Aaron Judge Over 1.5 Total Bases (-140) ★★★★☆
– Value Play: Under 11.5 Runs (-112) ★★★☆☆
Yankees vs. Rockies Betting Odds & Latest Line Movement
| Market | Yankees | Rockies |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -301 | +241 |
| Run Line | -1.5 (-202) | +1.5 (+167) |
| Total | Over 11.5 (-108) | Under 11.5 (-112) |
Opening Line: Yankees -280, Total 11
Pitching Matchup: Max Fried vs. Kyle Freeland – Severe Mismatch
Yankees: Max Fried (6-0, 1.29 ERA)
- 62.2 innings pitched with 60 strikeouts and just 15 walks
- Stellar 0.93 WHIP and limiting opponents to a .186 batting average
- Has allowed just 1 earned run over his last 28 innings (0.32 ERA)
- First career start at Coors Field
Rockies: Kyle Freeland (0-6, 5.68 ERA)
- 50.2 innings pitched with 41 strikeouts and 10 walks
- Struggling with a 1.60 WHIP and allowing 10.1 hits per 9 innings
- Opponents hitting .307 against him this season
- 5.12 ERA in 4 home starts this season
Advantage: Massive edge to Yankees with Fried in Cy Young form
Bullpen Breakdown
The Yankees’ bullpen has been one of MLB’s best units with a 3.31 ERA (5th in MLB), anchored by unexpected closer Luke Weaver who sports a microscopic 0.40 ERA. While they recently lost Fernando Cruz to the IL with shoulder inflammation, Devin Williams has settled into a setup role after early-season struggles, and Jonathan Loaisiga has looked strong since returning from injury.
Colorado’s relief corps has been a disaster area, posting a 5.77 ERA (29th in MLB). Jake Bird (3.86 ERA) and Zach Agnos (3.45 ERA) have been serviceable, but the overall unit lacks depth and reliability.
Key Betting Trends & Team Statistics That Matter
- The Yankees are 65.1% (28-15) when favored this season
- Colorado has gone just 8-40 as underdogs in 2025
- The Rockies are 6-20 at home this season
- The Yankees have gone 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 8 of the Yankees’ last 10 games
- The Yankees are 7-3 in their last 10 games overall
- Max Fried has allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in all 9 starts this season
- Kyle Freeland has allowed 4+ earned runs in 5 of his 9 starts
Aaron Judge Ready to Explode at Coors
Aaron Judge hit his first career home run at Coors Field yesterday in the Yankees’ 3-2 loss, tying Shohei Ohtani for the MLB lead with his 17th homer. Judge is putting up absurd numbers, slashing .398/.489/.758 with 17 homers and 45 RBIs. The thin air at Coors Field combined with his power potential creates an explosive matchup, especially against Freeland who has struggled mightily this season.
Coors Field Factor: High Scoring Potential, but Pitching Trends Suggest Otherwise
Coors Field traditionally boosts offense due to the thin air and spacious outfield dimensions. However, the Yankees have played to the UNDER in 8 of their last 10 games due to excellent pitching. With Fried on the mound, there’s a real possibility the Yankees can limit Colorado’s scoring. The total of 11.5 might seem low for Coors, but with Fried’s dominance and the Yankees’ strong bullpen, the UNDER deserves serious consideration.
Expert Prediction & Best Bets for Yankees-Rockies Showdown
Primary Play: Yankees -1.5 (-202)
Despite the juice, this is the play with the most value on the board. Max Fried has been arguably the best pitcher in baseball this season with his 1.29 ERA, and Kyle Freeland has struggled mightily for the Rockies. The Yankees should bounce back strong after yesterday’s shocking loss to the worst team in baseball. While the Rockies managed a victory yesterday, they’re still 9-42 overall and have been outscored by 158 runs this season. Fried should dominate their weak lineup, and the Yankees offense should take advantage of Freeland’s struggles.
Value Play: Under 11.5 Runs (-112)
Coors Field typically inflates run totals, but Fried’s dominance presents a unique opportunity. The Yankees have been playing to lower totals lately, with the UNDER hitting in 8 of their last 10 games. While Coors Field can produce crooked numbers, Fried’s ability to limit hard contact and induce ground balls should keep the Rockies’ offense in check. The Yankees will score their share against Freeland, but I don’t see this turning into a complete slugfest that exceeds 11.5 runs.
Worth Considering: Aaron Judge Over 1.5 Total Bases (-140)
Judge already homered in the series opener and is hitting .398 with a .758 slugging percentage. Facing a struggling lefty in Kyle Freeland at Coors Field, Judge should have multiple opportunities to drive the ball. Whether it’s via home run, double, or multiple singles, Judge should easily surpass 1.5 total bases in this matchup.
Player Props Worth Targeting in Today’s Matchup
| Player | Prop | Odds | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | Over 1.5 Total Bases | -140 | ★★★★☆ |
| Paul Goldschmidt | Over 0.5 RBIs | +105 | ★★★★☆ |
| Max Fried | Over 6.5 Strikeouts | -110 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Hunter Goodman | Under 0.5 RBIs | -165 | ★★★☆☆ |
Final Thoughts: Yankees Should Dominate With Fried
The Yankees’ loss yesterday was a shock, but today’s pitching matchup heavily favors New York. Max Fried is pitching at a Cy Young level while Kyle Freeland has been one of the worst starters in baseball. Expect the Yankees to come out motivated after yesterday’s disappointing loss and for Aaron Judge to continue his assault on MLB pitching. The Yankees should win comfortably behind Fried’s dominant pitching and their potent offense.
Score Prediction: Yankees 6, Rockies 2
