New York Mets (29-20) vs. Boston Red Sox (25-25)
When: Wednesday, May 21, 2025, 6:45 PM ET
Where: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
TV: SNY, NESN
Betting Odds
Runline: Red Sox -1.5 (+165) / Mets +1.5 (-200)
Total: 8 runs (Over -110, Under -110)
Money Line: Red Sox -144 / Mets +122
Game Analysis
The Mets enter tonight’s contest riding a three-game losing streak, their first such skid of the 2025 season. Meanwhile, the Red Sox have won three of their last four games and are looking to complete the sweep at Fenway. What’s most concerning for the Mets isn’t just the losing streak, but their complete offensive collapse – they haven’t homered since Brett Baty’s solo shot against the Pirates a week ago and are a dismal 5-for-44 with runners in scoring position during this cold stretch.
Sharp Money Take
This line opened with Boston as a -135 favorite, but has seen steady movement toward the Red Sox despite fairly balanced action. The adjusted -144 price indicates professional bettors see value on the home team with Garrett Crochet on the mound. When Boston has been a home favorite of -140 or higher this season, they’ve gone 9-4 straight up, though their overall home record sits at a decent but not overwhelming 14-11.
Pitching Matchup Breakdown
Tylor Megill (3-4, 3.74 ERA) takes the ball for New York against Boston’s ace Garrett Crochet (4-3, 2.00 ERA). This pitching matchup heavily favors the Red Sox. Crochet has been dominant this season, ranking among MLB’s elite starters with a stellar 2.00 ERA and impressive 1.06 WHIP while striking out 73 batters. His 10.5 K/9 rate makes him particularly dangerous against a Mets lineup that’s currently pressing.
Megill has been serviceable for the Mets but far from spectacular, posting a 3.74 ERA with a concerning 1.39 WHIP. His tendency to allow baserunners could be problematic against a Red Sox team that’s batting .264 over their last 10 games. Megill has allowed 10 earned runs over his last 17.2 innings (three starts), resulting in a 5.10 ERA during that stretch.
Boston’s bullpen delivered a remarkable performance yesterday, with six relievers combining for a shutout after Walker Buehler’s early ejection. There’s some concern about bullpen fatigue, but the Red Sox relievers have been up to the challenge recently.
Situational Factors
The Mets are just 12-15 on the road this season, while struggling particularly during this current road trip. New York has dropped five of their last six games and is averaging just 1.5 runs during their three-game losing streak. They’ve fallen to second place in the NL East after leading the division since April 9.
The Red Sox are starting to find their groove after a mediocre start to the season, sitting at exactly .500 with a 25-25 record. They’ve won back-to-back games against the Mets with excellent pitching, allowing just one run across 18 innings in this series. Boston’s Carlos Narvaez has been hot, going 14-for-31 with two doubles and two home runs over the past 10 games.
Both teams have significant injury concerns. The Mets have several key pitchers on the IL, including Frankie Montas, Sean Manaea, and Paul Blackburn, while the Red Sox are missing Triston Casas, Tanner Houck, and Masataka Yoshida, among others.
Statistical Edges
The Red Sox hold a significant edge in this matchup due to the Mets’ offensive struggles. New York is hitting a meager .216 over their last 10 games and have been outscored by 12 runs during that span. They’ve gone 0-for-7 with runners in scoring position in this series against Boston.
Rafael Devers has been Boston’s offensive catalyst, batting .286 with 14 doubles, 10 home runs and 39 RBIs. Meanwhile, Mets stars Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto have been largely ineffective recently, with Lindor collecting just two hits in his last seven games.
Looking at betting trends, the Mets are 11-4 in games where they hit at least two home runs this season – but they haven’t homered in nearly a week. The under has hit in 60% of Boston’s home games and 53% of New York’s road games this season.
The Verdict
I’m backing the Red Sox -144 (2 units) in this matchup. The combination of Garrett Crochet’s dominance, Boston’s motivated play at home, and the Mets’ ongoing offensive struggles creates substantial value on the home team. Crochet should stifle a New York lineup that appears lost at the plate and pressing in every at-bat.
The total also presents interesting value. While 8 runs might seem low, the Mets have scored just 3 total runs over their last three games, and the pitching matchup favors a lower-scoring affair. However, my strongest play remains on Boston’s moneyline due to the clear pitching advantage and momentum differential.
For a secondary play, consider Crochet Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-115). The Mets are pressing and expanding their strike zone, which should lead to plenty of swings and misses against one of baseball’s most electric young arms. Don’t be surprised when Crochet dominates this struggling Mets lineup for seven-plus impressive innings.
