May 25, 2025 – 1:35 PM ET at PNC Park
The Milwaukee Brewers look to split their four-game series with the Pittsburgh Pirates as rising star Logan Henderson takes the mound in Sunday’s finale. After dropping two of the first three games at PNC Park, the Brewers send their impressive rookie right-hander against Pirates lefty Bailey Falter, who has been on a remarkable run of his own. With Pittsburgh taking Saturday’s contest 2-1 on Oneil Cruz’s seventh-inning RBI triple, this pitching matchup presents an intriguing betting opportunity for baseball bettors.
Betting Odds
Run Line:
– Brewers -1.5 (+130)
– Pirates +1.5 (-156)
Moneyline:
– Brewers -134
– Pirates +114
Total:
– Over 8 runs (-118)
– Under 8 runs (-102)
Pitching Matchup
Brewers: Logan Henderson (RHP, 3-0, 1.69 ERA)
The 23-year-old rookie has been nothing short of sensational in his first few starts in the majors. Henderson brings a pristine 0.81 WHIP and impressive 23 strikeouts across just 16 innings of work. His command has been exceptional with only 4 walks issued, translating to a stellar 5.75 K/BB ratio. Henderson’s ability to limit traffic on the basepaths while missing bats has made him an immediate impact arm in Milwaukee’s rotation.
Pirates: Bailey Falter (LHP, 3-3, 3.50 ERA)
Don’t let Falter’s .500 record fool you – the lefty has been dealing lately. He’s allowed just one earned run over his last 23.1 innings pitched, dramatically lowering his ERA from above 5.00 to a respectable 3.50. On the season, Falter has posted a solid 1.13 WHIP with 39 strikeouts against 18 walks across 54 innings. His recent form suggests he’s found his groove after a rocky start to the campaign.
Recent Team Form
Brewers (25-28, 10-18 road):
The Brewers have struggled to find consistency, going 5-5 in their last 10 games with a team ERA of 3.95 during that stretch. Their offense has been productive enough, posting a .245 batting average over the same span, but they’ve been outscored by two runs overall. Milwaukee’s road record has been particularly concerning, winning just 10 of 28 games away from home this season.
Pirates (19-34, 13-15 home):
Despite their overall poor record, the Pirates have played respectably at PNC Park and have won four of their last five games. Over their last 10 contests, Pittsburgh has gone 5-5 with a solid 3.48 team ERA, though they’ve been outscored by eight runs. They’ve managed to be more competitive at home than their overall record would suggest.
Key Injuries
Brewers:
Milwaukee continues to deal with significant pitching injuries, with Connor Thomas, Jose Quintana, Nestor Cortes, Brandon Woodruff, D.L. Hall, and Robert Gasser all sidelined. Outfielder Blake Perkins remains on the 60-day IL, while Garrett Mitchell is nursing an oblique injury.
Pirates:
Pittsburgh is missing several key bullpen pieces including Colin Holderman, Justin Lawrence, Tim Mayza, and Dauri Moreta. Rising star Jared Jones is on the 60-day IL with an elbow injury, while catcher Endy Rodriguez is dealing with a finger issue.
Key Matchup Factors
- The Brewers are 10-1 this season when hitting two or more home runs in a game
- Pirates have won 4 of their last 5 games overall
- Falter has been nearly untouchable over his last several starts, yielding just one earned run
- Henderson has yet to taste defeat in his young MLB career (3-0)
- The Pirates have taken a 2-1 lead in this current series
- Jackson Chourio and Bryan Reynolds are both tied with 27 RBIs to lead their respective teams
My Prediction and Best Bet
While the Brewers come in as the favorite with the talented Henderson on the mound, I’m not convinced they have the edge in this matchup. Falter’s recent dominance (1 ER in his last 23.1 IP) is remarkable, and the Pirates have shown some life with their recent play.
Given the low-scoring nature of Saturday’s game and the quality of both starting pitchers, I’m targeting the under in this matchup. Both offenses have been inconsistent, and I expect Henderson and Falter to continue their strong work.
Best Bet: UNDER 8 Runs (-102)
The projected starters have combined for a 2.76 ERA this season, and both bullpens have been respectable in this series. Look for another pitcher’s duel at PNC Park, with runs at a premium throughout. Henderson’s exceptional WHIP (0.81) and Falter’s recent scoreless streak point to another game that stays under the total.
For those looking for a side play, the Pirates at +114 offer decent value at home against a Brewers team that has struggled on the road. I expect Falter to match Henderson pitch for pitch, making Pittsburgh an attractive home underdog in what should be a close, low-scoring contest.
Final Score Prediction: Pirates 3, Brewers 2
