The Milwaukee Brewers (24-26) head to PNC Park for a four-game series against the struggling Pittsburgh Pirates (17-33), beginning Thursday night. While Milwaukee has been treading water lately, they’re facing a Pirates squad that’s endured a miserable season thus far. With Pittsburgh matching an MLB record for offensive futility (26 straight games scoring 4 runs or fewer) and Milwaukee coming off a tough extra-inning loss to Baltimore, this matchup presents several betting opportunities worth targeting.
Quick Picks:
- Best Bet: Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline (-120) ★★★★☆
- Top Prop: Rhys Hoskins Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130) ★★★★★
- Value Play: Game Total Under 9 Runs (-108) ★★★☆☆
Brewers vs. Pirates Betting Odds & Latest Line Movement
| Market | Milwaukee Brewers | Pittsburgh Pirates |
|——–|——————-|——————-|
| Moneyline | -120 | +101 |
| Run Line | -1.5 (+128) | +1.5 (-153) |
| Total | Over 9 (-112) | Under 9 (-108) |
Opening Line: Brewers -115, Total 8.5
Sharp Money Analysis: Where Pro Bettors Are Placing Their Wagers
The line opened with Milwaukee as slight -115 favorites and has moved modestly to -120, suggesting some professional money backing the Brewers. What’s more interesting is the total, which has ticked up from 8.5 to 9 despite both teams struggling offensively. This indicates some sharp bettors may be expecting the Brewers’ bats to wake up against a vulnerable Pirates pitching staff, but I’m not convinced.
Pitching Matchup: TBD vs. Burrows – What We Know
Milwaukee Brewers: TBD
– Milwaukee has not officially announced their starter, but signs point to Logan Henderson (1-0, 1.69 ERA) taking the mound
– Henderson has been outstanding in his first three MLB starts, allowing just 4 earned runs in 16.1 innings
– The rookie has demonstrated impressive command with a 22:5 K:BB ratio
Pittsburgh Pirates: Mike Burrows (0-0, 0.00 ERA)
– This will be Burrows’ first MLB start after appearing in relief
– His minor league numbers have been solid, posting a 3.25 ERA at Triple-A Indianapolis
– Lacks high-end velocity but features an above-average curveball and solid command
Advantage: Edge to Milwaukee. Even with uncertainty about their starter, the Brewers have better pitching depth and are facing a Pirates offense that’s been historically bad.
Bullpen Breakdown
Milwaukee’s bullpen has been a strength, ranking 7th in MLB with a 3.56 ERA this season. While they were taxed in their 11-inning loss to Baltimore on Wednesday, the unit remains reliable with Trevor Megill, Abner Uribe, and Joel Payamps forming a solid back-end trio.
Pittsburgh’s relief corps has actually been serviceable with a 3.82 ERA, but they lack the depth and high-leverage arms to consistently protect leads. Dennis Santana has emerged as their closer with 5 saves, but the bridge to the 9th inning remains questionable.
Key Betting Trends & Team Statistics That Matter
- Pirates have tied an MLB record with 26 consecutive games scoring 4 runs or fewer
- Milwaukee is 18-4 when scoring at least 5 runs this season
- Pittsburgh is a dismal 3-22 in games when they allow a home run
- The Brewers are 9-16 on the road this season, while the Pirates are 11-14 at home
- Milwaukee has taken 10 of the last 14 meetings between these teams at PNC Park
- The under is 7-3 in the Pirates’ last 10 games overall
- The Brewers are 5-5 in their last 10 games, while the Pirates are 4-6
Rhys Hoskins’ Hot Streak: Potential Game-Changer
Rhys Hoskins enters this series swinging a hot bat, hitting .412 with two doubles and two home runs over his last five games. The veteran slugger leads the Brewers in all three triple-slash categories (.300/.395/.487) and has shown a knack for delivering in favorable matchups:
- Hoskins vs. right-handed pitching in 2025: .291 BA, .475 SLG, 5 HR
- Leads Milwaukee with 7 home runs and 27 RBIs on the season
- Has historical success at PNC Park with a career .290 BA and 6 HR in 21 games
PNC Park Factor: How the Venue Influences Today’s Game
PNC Park typically plays as a pitcher-friendly venue (0.93 run factor in 2024), which could further suppress scoring in this matchup:
- The park’s spacious left field suppresses right-handed power
- Weather forecast calls for 12-15 mph winds blowing in from center field
- Evening temperatures around 64°F will create less carry for fly balls
- Pirates have scored 3 runs or fewer in 15 of their 25 home games this season
These factors contribute significantly to my lean toward the under despite the relatively high 9-run total.
Expert Prediction & Best Bets for Brewers-Pirates Showdown
Primary Play: Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline (-120) – 2 Units
This price offers solid value on the clearly superior team. The Brewers have significant advantages in nearly every facet of the game, and while they’ve been inconsistent, they’re facing a Pirates team that’s been historically inept offensively. Pittsburgh’s 26-game streak of scoring 4 runs or fewer ties an MLB record for futility, and I don’t see that changing against Milwaukee’s solid pitching.
The Brewers’ offense showed signs of life recently with William Contreras and Rhys Hoskins heating up. Facing an inexperienced starter in Mike Burrows presents an excellent opportunity for Milwaukee to jump ahead early. I’d play this up to -130.
Strong Value Play: Under 9 Runs (-108)
Despite the total moving up slightly, I see this as an overreaction. The Pirates simply cannot score runs right now, averaging just 2.3 runs per game over their last 10 contests. Meanwhile, the Brewers have averaged only 3.2 runs during the same span. With PNC Park’s pitcher-friendly dimensions and winds blowing in, we’re likely looking at a low-scoring affair.
The key here is Pittsburgh’s offensive struggles – they’ve gone under in 7 of their last 10 games overall. This total should be closer to 8 than 9, making the under an appealing option at near even money.
Worth Considering: Rhys Hoskins Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Hoskins is seeing the ball extremely well right now, hitting .412 over his last five games with multiple extra-base hits. He’s been Milwaukee’s most consistent offensive threat and has historical success at PNC Park. With Burrows making his first MLB start, Hoskins should get at least one favorable pitch to drive. At plus-money odds, this prop offers tremendous value.
Player Props Worth Targeting in Thursday’s NL Central Clash
| Player Prop | Odds | Rating |
|————-|——|——–|
| Rhys Hoskins Over 1.5 Total Bases | +130 | ★★★★★ |
| William Contreras To Record an RBI | +155 | ★★★★☆ |
| Jackson Chourio Over 0.5 Runs Scored | +110 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Oneil Cruz Under 1.5 Total Bases | -120 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Brewers First 5 Innings -0.5 | +110 | ★★★★☆ |
Final Thoughts: Brewers Should Handle Business in Pittsburgh
The numbers don’t lie here. Pittsburgh’s offensive struggles have reached historic proportions, and Milwaukee has the pitching to keep them at bay. While the Brewers haven’t been world-beaters themselves, they have significant advantages across the board in this matchup.
Expect Milwaukee to capitalize on Pittsburgh’s inexperienced starter while their own pitching keeps the Pirates’ anemic offense in check. In what should be a relatively low-scoring affair, the Brewers’ superior talent should prevail. Back Milwaukee on the moneyline and consider the under as a strong complementary play.
