Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: MLB Betting Preview
Date: Friday, May 9th, 2025 | 7:10 PM ET
Location: Citi Field, New York, NY
TV Coverage: MLBN
Money Line: Cubs +131 | Mets -154
Total Line: 8
Betting Preview
Here’s our comprehensive betting preview for the upcoming National League clash between the Chicago Cubs and the New York Mets on Friday, May 9th at Citi Field. We provide you with detailed analysis, current odds, and expert predictions to help with your handicapping decision based on the projected lineups and confirmed starting pitchers.
Betting Odds
| ML | RL | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | +131 | +1.5 | O 8 (-102) |
| NYM | -154 | -1.5 | U 8 (-118) |
The Cubs and Mets square off in an NL matchup at 7:10 PM ET on Friday at Citi Field. The Mets are favored on the money line at -154, while the Cubs come in at +131. The over/under total is set at 8 runs, with the over priced at -102 and the under at -118.
Chicago (22-16) will send Jameson Taillon to the mound, while New York (24-14) counters with Clay Holmes. This game will be televised nationally on MLBN.
Team Standings & Current Form
Chicago Cubs (22-16)
- Division Standing: 1st in NL Central, 3 games ahead of Cardinals
- Divisional Record: 4-2
- Home/Road Split: 10-9 home, 12-7 road
- As Road Underdog: 12-7
- Series Record: 8-4-1
- Recent Form: Lost final two games vs. Giants
New York Mets (24-14)
- Division Standing: 1st in NL East, 1.5 games ahead of Phillies
- Divisional Record: 9-4
- Home/Road Split: 13-3 home, 11-11 road
- As Favorite: Undefeated when favored (limited sample size)
- Series Record: Won final two games vs. Diamondbacks
- Last 10 Games: 5-5
Recent Game Recaps
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs dropped their series finale against the Giants with a 3-1 loss despite entering as -165 favorites at home. Chicago held a lead heading into the fourth inning but surrendered three runs in the top half of the frame and couldn’t recover.
Ben Brown took the loss for the Cubs after working five innings and allowing three earned runs on six hits. Nico Hoerner provided a bright spot offensively, going 2-for-4 with two doubles and scoring Chicago’s lone run.
New York Mets
Juan Soto powered the Mets to victory in their most recent game against the Diamondbacks. Soto went 2-for-4 with two home runs and three RBIs as New York pulled away with a three-run seventh inning. The Mets entered as slight underdogs at -113 on the money line.
Kodai Senga delivered a stellar performance for New York, tossing six scoreless innings while issuing just two walks and recording four strikeouts. The Mets’ bullpen preserved the shutout with three scoreless frames, and the offense added insurance with three additional runs in the ninth inning.
Projected Lineups
Chicago Cubs
| Player | Batting Order | Position |
|---|---|---|
| Ian Happ | 1 | LF |
| Kyle Tucker | 2 | RF |
| Seiya Suzuki | 3 | DH |
| Michael Busch | 4 | 1B |
| Dansby Swanson | 5 | SS |
| Nico Hoerner | 6 | 2B |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | 7 | CF |
| Miguel Amaya | 8 | C |
| Jon Berti | 9 | 3B |
| Jameson Taillon | – | SP |
New York Mets
| Player | Batting Order | Position |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor | 1 | SS |
| Juan Soto | 2 | RF |
| Pete Alonso | 3 | 1B |
| Brandon Nimmo | 4 | LF |
| Mark Vientos | 5 | 3B |
| Starling Marte | 6 | DH |
| Francisco Alvarez | 7 | C |
| Jeff McNeil | 8 | 2B |
| Tyrone Taylor | 9 | CF |
| Clay Holmes | – | SP |
Team Records
Chicago Cubs: 22-16 SU / OU 23-14 / Runline 22-16
New York Mets: 24-14 SU / OU 14-24 / Runline 24-14
Pitching Matchup Analysis
Jameson Taillon (CHC)
- Season Record: 2-1
- ERA: 3.86
- WHIP: 1.03
- Innings Pitched: 39.2
- Home Runs Allowed: 6
- Quality Starts: 4 consecutive
- Recent Form: Win vs. Brewers (6 IP, 2 ER)
- Note: No losses since April 9th
Clay Holmes (NYM)
- Season Record: 4-1
- ERA: 2.94
- Opponents’ Batting Average: .248
- Quality Starts: 2
- Strikeouts Per 9: 9.57
- Recent Form: Win (6 IP, 3 ER)
- Note: Allowed no more than 1 ER in three straight starts before his most recent outing
Offensive Comparison
Chicago Cubs
- Runs Per Game: 5.9 (1st in MLB)
- Road Runs Per Game: 6.3
- Team Rankings: 3rd in home runs, near top in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage
Key Performers:
- Pete Crow-Armstrong: 3 HR in last 6 games, .261 BA during that stretch, tied for team lead in HR
- Kyle Tucker: Tied for team lead in home runs
- Seiya Suzuki: Tied for team lead in home runs
- Carson Kelly: .348 BA (team best), 8 HR (2nd on team)
New York Mets
- Runs Per Game: 4.8 (10th in MLB)
- Road Runs Per Game: 4.9
- Team Batting Average: .249 (7th in MLB)
- Home Runs: 9th in MLB
- Team Notes: 6th in isolated power, one of the best teams at avoiding strikeouts
Key Performers:
- Pete Alonso: .328 BA, 9 HR (team lead), 34 RBIs (team lead)
- Juan Soto: .346 (9-for-26) with 4 HR in last 7 games, .261 BA overall with 7 HR and 17 RBIs (2nd on team)
Analysis and Prediction
This series opener features two division leaders with identical 5-5 records over their last 10 games. The pitching matchup presents an interesting contrast between Taillon’s consistency (four straight quality starts) and Holmes’ overall effectiveness (2.94 ERA).
The Cubs boast MLB’s highest-scoring offense (5.9 runs per game), which has been even more potent on the road (6.3 runs per game). Chicago’s balanced attack features multiple power threats, including Crow-Armstrong, Tucker, and Suzuki, while Kelly provides a high-average presence.
New York counters with strong offensive production of their own, led by Alonso’s impressive .328 average and 34 RBIs. Soto has been on a tear recently with four home runs in his last seven games. The Mets have been nearly unbeatable at home (13-3), which gives them a significant advantage in this matchup.
While the Cubs’ road record is impressive at 12-7, New York’s 13-3 home mark suggests they’re extremely comfortable at Citi Field. Adding to that, the Mets have been perfect as favorites this season, though in limited opportunities.
Betting Pick: New York Mets -1.5 (Run Line)
The Mets’ dominant home performance and Soto’s recent power surge, combined with Holmes’ solid pitching, should give New York enough of an edge to cover the run line. While the Cubs feature the league’s top offense, the Mets’ home field advantage and balanced attack should produce a multi-run victory.
