The New York Mets (39-23) aim to clinch their four-game series against the Los Angeles Dodgers (37-25) on Thursday afternoon at Dodger Stadium. After Pete Alonso’s two-homer, five-RBI performance powered the Mets to a 6-1 victory on Wednesday, New York looks to win the series outright with lefty David Peterson on the mound. I’ve analyzed this matchup extensively and see significant value on the underdog Mets given Peterson’s outstanding form and the struggles of Dodgers starter Landon Knack.
Quick Picks:
- Best Bet: New York Mets Moneyline (+125) ★★★★☆
- Top Prop: David Peterson Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-115) ★★★★☆
- Value Play: Under 8.5 Runs (-110) ★★★☆☆
New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Odds & Latest Line Movement
| Market | New York Mets | Los Angeles Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +125 | -145 |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-165) | -1.5 (+145) |
| Total | Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110) |
Opening Line: Dodgers -150, Total 8.5
Sharp Money Analysis: Where Pro Bettors Are Placing Their Wagers
There’s been minimal movement on this line since opening, suggesting professionals aren’t strongly opinionated in either direction. I have noticed some nibbling on the Mets moneyline, with small steam moves causing brief drops to +120 before settling back at +125. The total has held firm at 8.5, but I’m seeing some under money in the overnight markets. With the afternoon start time in LA and both pitchers’ recent tendencies, that under money aligns with my analysis.
Pitching Matchup: David Peterson vs Landon Knack – Who Has the Edge?
New York Mets: David Peterson (4-2, 2.69 ERA)
- Has been exceptional over his last seven starts, posting a 1.87 ERA in that span
- Strikeout rate has climbed to 8.3 K/9 with improved command (3.3 BB/9)
- Allowing just a .222 batting average against this season
- Left-handed advantage will help neutralize Dodgers’ power lefties
Los Angeles Dodgers: Landon Knack (3-2, 4.58 ERA)
- Struggling with consistency in recent outings, allowing 4+ runs in three of his last five starts
- Control has been an issue with 13 walks in 35.1 innings
- Home/road splits show vulnerability at Dodger Stadium (5.17 ERA at home)
- Hard contact metrics trending in wrong direction (43.2% hard-hit rate)
Advantage: Significant edge to New York. Peterson is pitching like a frontline starter right now, while Knack has shown troubling signs of regression. The lefty/righty dynamic gives the Mets an additional tactical advantage.
Bullpen Breakdown
Both bullpens enter relatively fresh after Griffin Canning’s six-inning effort for the Mets and the Dodgers using just two relievers in Wednesday’s game. New York’s bullpen has been among MLB’s best with a 2.92 ERA, led by dominant late-inning options in Edwin Diaz and Reed Garrett. The Dodgers’ relief corps has been less consistent, ranking middle-of-the-pack with a 3.78 ERA and showing vulnerability in high-leverage spots. With Jose Castillo having pitched a clean inning yesterday and Ryne Stanek looking sharp, the Mets have the advantage if this becomes a battle of bullpens.
Key Betting Trends & Team Statistics That Matter
- The Mets lead the season series 4-2 and have won 9 of their last 11 games overall
- New York is 18-11 on the road this season, showing they travel exceptionally well
- The Dodgers are just 19-13 at home, below expectations for a World Series contender
- Under is 5-2 in David Peterson’s last 7 starts, highlighting his effectiveness
- The Mets are 16-8 in their last 24 games as underdogs, showing tremendous value in that role
- Los Angeles is just 7-11 in day games this season, suggesting a potential vulnerability
- Pete Alonso has 5 home runs in his last 11 games, signaling he’s found his power stroke
Pete Alonso’s Power Surge: Can the Slugger Stay Hot?
After struggling through a 16-game homerless drought in May, Pete Alonso has rediscovered his power stroke at the perfect time. His two-homer, five-RBI performance on Wednesday night gave him 14 home runs on the season and demonstrated his ability to carry the Mets offense. Alonso has historically performed well in day games (.283 average compared to .255 in night games), and his confidence is clearly at a season-high. While Knack has kept the ball in the park reasonably well, his tendency to leave pitches in the zone could prove costly against a locked-in Alonso.
Dodger Stadium Factor: How the Venue Influences Today’s Game
Dodger Stadium has played more pitcher-friendly than expected this season, with a runs factor of 0.94 compared to the MLB average. The 1:10 pm local start time creates challenging shadows that typically favor pitchers, particularly in the middle innings. David Peterson’s ground ball tendencies (52.1% ground ball rate) play well in this park, where the outfield dimensions can be forgiving if you keep the ball down. The expected game-time temperature of 78 degrees with minimal wind should create neutral conditions that won’t significantly impact either team’s approach.
Expert Prediction & Best Bets for Mets-Dodgers Showdown
Primary Play: New York Mets Moneyline (+125)
This price represents significant value on a Mets team that’s won four of six against the Dodgers this season. Peterson gives New York a substantial starting pitching advantage with his 2.69 ERA and improved command. The Mets’ offense has found its rhythm, averaging 5.2 runs per game over their last 10 contests, while the Dodgers have shown vulnerability against left-handed pitching. At +125, I’m getting the better pitcher and the hotter team at plus money – that’s a bet I’ll make every time.
Strong Value Play: David Peterson Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-115)
Peterson has cleared this threshold in four of his last six starts, and the Dodgers have shown a tendency to swing and miss against left-handed pitching. Los Angeles is striking out at a 24.7% clip against southpaws, and with Peterson’s improved command of his slider, I expect him to generate plenty of whiffs. The afternoon shadows at Dodger Stadium should provide additional deception, making this a strong play at near even money.
Worth Considering: Under 8.5 Runs (-110)
With Peterson’s excellent form and the traditionally difficult hitting conditions in day games at Dodger Stadium, I’m leaning toward the under. Five of the six Mets-Dodgers matchups this season have stayed under this total, and Peterson has been a consistent under pitcher with his ability to induce weak contact. While both offenses are capable of explosive outings, I expect pitching to dominate in what shapes up as a tense series finale.
Player Props Worth Targeting in Today’s Matchup
| Player | Prop | Odds | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| David Peterson | Over 5.5 Strikeouts | -115 | ★★★★☆ |
| Pete Alonso | Over 1.5 Total Bases | +110 | ★★★★☆ |
| Francisco Lindor | To Record a Hit | -165 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Landon Knack | Under 16.5 Outs Recorded | -120 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Shohei Ohtani | Under 1.5 Total Bases | +120 | ★★★☆☆ |
Final Thoughts: Mets’ Pitching Advantage Creates Upset Opportunity
This matchup presents a classic case of the betting market overvaluing the home favorite. The Dodgers deserve respect as defending champions, but the current pitching forms of these two starters tell a different story. Peterson is performing at an All-Star level while Knack has struggled with consistency. The Mets have demonstrated they can compete with – and beat – the Dodgers, taking four of six matchups this season. New York’s MLB-best team ERA of 2.86 is no fluke, and Peterson embodies their pitch-to-contact, ground ball-oriented approach. I expect a low-scoring, tightly contested game that the Mets’ superior pitching and hot bats will ultimately decide in their favor.
Score Prediction: New York Mets 4, Los Angeles Dodgers 2
