The National League’s two division leaders square off tonight when the New York Mets (37-22, 1st NL East) visit the Los Angeles Dodgers (36-23, 1st NL West) in a potential playoff preview. Paul Blackburn makes his 2025 debut for the Mets after coming off the injured list, while the Dodgers counter with Dustin May, who’s been up and down this season. Both teams enter this series playing excellent baseball, with the Mets riding a three-game win streak after sweeping Colorado, while the Dodgers just took two of three from the Yankees in their World Series rematch. With Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, and Juan Soto all homering in the Mets’ last game, New York’s offense is clicking at the perfect time to face LA’s depleted pitching staff.
Quick Picks:
- Best Bet: Mets Moneyline (+139) ★★★★☆
- Top Prop: Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120) ★★★★☆
- Value Play: Over 9 Runs (-110) ★★★☆☆
New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Odds & Latest Line Movement
| Market | New York Mets | Los Angeles Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +139 | -165 |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-145) | -1.5 (+125) |
| Total | Over 9 (-110) | Under 9 (-110) |
Opening Line: Dodgers -160, Total 8.5
Sharp Money Analysis: Where Pro Bettors Are Placing Their Wagers
The line opened with the Dodgers as -160 favorites and has seen only slight movement to -165 despite receiving roughly 65% of the tickets. This modest movement suggests sharp resistance against any further inflation of the Dodgers’ price. The total has ticked up from 8.5 to 9, indicating professional money believes the Mets’ hot bats combined with Blackburn’s uncertainty in his season debut could produce more runs than initially expected. The run line shows interesting value on the Mets at +1.5, with juice indicating respect for New York’s ability to keep this game close even in a hostile Dodger Stadium environment.
Pitching Matchup: Paul Blackburn vs Dustin May – Who Has the Edge?
New York Mets: Paul Blackburn (0-0, 0.00 ERA)
- 2025 debut after knee injury sidelined him during spring training
- Posted 4.9 WAR last season with Oakland before off-season trade to Mets
- Career 4.25 ERA with 7.1 K/9 over 362.1 innings
- Expected to be on a pitch count (~80-85 pitches)
Los Angeles Dodgers: Dustin May (3-4, 4.20 ERA)
- Inconsistent in 2025 with 4.20 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 55.2 innings
- 58 strikeouts against 20 walks shows solid K/BB ratio
- Struggled with home runs, allowing 8 in his last 6 starts
- 3-1 with 3.45 ERA at home vs. 0-3 with 5.40 ERA on the road
Advantage: Slight edge to Dodgers. While May has been inconsistent, Blackburn is making his first start of the season and will likely be limited. May’s home/road splits strongly favor him in this matchup at Dodger Stadium.
Bullpen Breakdown
The Mets’ bullpen has been outstanding, posting a 2.78 ERA over their last 10 games while converting 8 of 9 save opportunities. Edwin Díaz has regained his dominant form with 6 consecutive scoreless appearances. The Dodgers’ relief corps has been decimated by injuries with 15 pitchers currently on the IL. Recent addition Luis García (4.50 ERA) just joined the injured list with an adductor strain, and closer Tanner Scott has struggled mightily with a 16.20 ERA and three blown saves since May 17. The Mets hold a significant advantage if this game comes down to the bullpens, which could be decisive with Blackburn likely on a pitch count in his season debut.
Key Betting Trends & Team Statistics That Matter
- The Mets are a perfect 24-7 at home but just 13-15 on the road this season
- Los Angeles boasts a formidable 21-9 record at Dodger Stadium
- The Dodgers have outscored opponents by 20 runs over their last 10 games (6-4 record)
- New York has outscored opponents by 15 runs during their 8-2 stretch over the past 10 games
- Mets are 8-3 in their last 11 games against teams with winning records
- Dodgers lead MLB with a team .345 on-base percentage
- New York ranks 4th in the NL with a .414 team slugging percentage
- Dustin May has allowed 3+ earned runs in 5 of his last 7 starts
Francisco Lindor’s Historic Power Surge
Francisco Lindor just passed Derek Jeter for career home runs by a shortstop, now sitting alone in fourth place all-time at the position with 261. He’s been on an absolute tear, homering in three straight games against Colorado, including two from opposite sides of the plate on Friday night. With the hot weather in Los Angeles and Dustin May’s recent homer vulnerability (8 allowed in his last 6 starts), Lindor is positioned for another big night. The shortstop is slashing .283/.356/.494 with 13 home runs on the season and is 12-for-41 with 4 homers over his last 10 games. His matchup against May’s high-velocity but sometimes location-challenged fastball creates an appealing prop opportunity.
Dodger Stadium Factor: How the Venue Influences Today’s Game
Dodger Stadium has played closer to neutral than its pitcher-friendly reputation suggests in 2025, with the warm early-June temperatures helping carry balls. Tonight’s forecast calls for 75 degrees at first pitch with minimal wind, creating favorable hitting conditions. The Dodgers have capitalized on their home field advantage with a 21-9 record at Chavez Ravine, where May has been significantly more effective (3-1, 3.45 ERA). The Mets’ road struggles (13-15) present a concern, though their loaded lineup featuring Lindor, Alonso, and Soto has the power to overcome any park factors. With both teams averaging over 4.5 runs per game, the bump in the total from 8.5 to 9 appears justified.
Expert Prediction & Best Bets for Mets-Dodgers Showdown
Primary Play: Mets Moneyline (+139)
I’m taking the value on the Mets at this price. While Blackburn is making his season debut, the Mets’ bullpen advantage is substantial with the Dodgers’ relief corps in shambles. May’s tendency to allow home runs plays right into the Mets’ strength, as their big three of Lindor, Alonso, and Soto all homered in their last game. The Dodgers’ injury concerns (Mookie Betts remains day-to-day) further tilt this matchup toward New York. At +139, we’re getting excellent value on a Mets team that’s playing exceptional baseball. I’d play this down to +130.
Strong Value Play: Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Lindor is seeing the ball extremely well right now, with homers in three straight games and four in his last 10. May has surrendered eight home runs in his last six starts, making this a perfect matchup for Lindor to extend his power streak. Even if he doesn’t homer, Lindor’s ability to collect hits from both sides of the plate gives multiple paths to clearing this total. The plus-money odds make this an excellent value proposition.
Worth Considering: Over 9 Runs (-110)
Blackburn’s pitch count limitations combined with May’s recent struggles and both teams’ offensive firepower create ideal conditions for a high-scoring affair. The Dodgers’ depleted bullpen will likely need to cover significant innings, which plays into the Mets’ hands. Los Angeles has averaged 5.8 runs per game at home, while New York has scored 4+ runs in seven of their last eight games. This total should clear 9 runs.
Player Props Worth Targeting in Today’s Matchup
| Player | Prop | Odds | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor | Over 1.5 Total Bases | +120 | ★★★★☆ |
| Pete Alonso | To Hit a Home Run | +350 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Juan Soto | Over 0.5 RBIs | +135 | ★★★★☆ |
| Dustin May | Under 5.5 Strikeouts | -115 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Freddie Freeman | Over 1.5 Hits | +165 | ★★★☆☆ |
Final Thoughts: Mets Poised to Start Series Strong
While the Dodgers are rightfully favorites at home, this line is overvalued based on name recognition rather than current form. The Mets come in with their offense clicking and their bullpen performing at an elite level. Blackburn’s debut creates some uncertainty, but the Dodgers’ pitching injuries and May’s inconsistency level the playing field. New York’s trio of Lindor, Alonso, and Soto all showed their power potential in Sunday’s game against Colorado, and the warm conditions at Dodger Stadium should allow that to continue. The Mets have the better overall team right now with the Dodgers’ injury issues, making them an excellent value at +139.
Score Prediction: Mets 6, Dodgers 5
