The New York Mets (38-22) continue their West Coast trip with the second game of their four-game series against the Los Angeles Dodgers (36-24) at Dodger Stadium. After taking the opener in extra innings, the Mets look to build on their success against the defending champions. With Mookie Betts likely returning to the Dodgers lineup and Kershaw still finding his rhythm after returning from injury, there’s plenty to dissect for bettors in this NLCS rematch.
Quick Picks:
- Best Bet: New York Mets Moneyline (+115) ★★★★☆
- Top Prop: Tylor Megill Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+100) ★★★★☆
- Value Play: Under 9.5 Total Runs (-110) ★★★☆☆
New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Odds & Latest Line Movement
| Market | New York Mets | Los Angeles Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +115 | -135 |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-165) | -1.5 (+145) |
| Total | Over 9.5 (-110) | Under 9.5 (-110) |
Opening Line: Dodgers -140, Total 9
Sharp Money Analysis: Where Pro Bettors Are Placing Their Wagers
The line opened with the Dodgers as -140 favorites and has seen minimal movement, settling at -135 despite about 60% of tickets coming in on Los Angeles. This suggests some professional resistance against the Dodgers, likely due to concerns about Kershaw’s effectiveness in just his fourth start of the season. Meanwhile, the total has ticked up from 9 to 9.5, indicating some sharp action on the over despite both starters showing solid form. I’m particularly watching the Mets moneyline, which offers value at +115 considering their recent form against the Dodgers and Megill’s strong performances this season.
Pitching Matchup: Tylor Megill vs Clayton Kershaw – Who Has the Edge?
New York Mets: Tylor Megill (4-4, 3.52 ERA)
- Has been one of the Mets’ most consistent starters with a solid 3.52 ERA over 53.2 innings
- Elite strikeout numbers with 72 Ks in 53.2 innings (12.1 K/9)
- Control issues are his main weakness with 27 walks (4.5 BB/9)
- Has allowed 3 or fewer earned runs in 7 of his last 8 starts
- Throwing his slider more frequently with excellent results (35% whiff rate)
Los Angeles Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw (0-0, 4.91 ERA)
- Making just his fourth start of 2025 after offseason shoulder surgery
- Limited to 11 total innings across three starts with a 4.91 ERA
- Showing diminished velocity (89-91 mph) and command issues (6 BB in 11 IP)
- Strikeout rate well below career norms (6 Ks in 11 IP)
- Hasn’t pitched more than 4 innings in any start this season
- Still dangerous with his trademark curveball, but fastball command remains inconsistent
Advantage: Mets. While Kershaw’s pedigree is unquestionable, Megill is currently the more effective pitcher. Kershaw is still building strength and stamina, making him vulnerable against a Mets lineup that’s clicking right now.
Bullpen Breakdown
The Dodgers bullpen has been taxed heavily in recent games, logging 15.2 innings over their last four contests with a concerning 4.60 ERA during that stretch. The strain showed in yesterday’s extra-inning loss, with Dave Roberts having limited high-leverage options available late. Meanwhile, the Mets’ relief corps has been more efficient, averaging just 3.1 innings per game over their last five. Edwin Díaz continues to anchor a unit that ranks 5th in MLB with a 3.18 ERA. With Kershaw unlikely to work deep into the game, this bullpen disparity gives New York a significant edge in the middle-to-late innings, especially if the game remains close into the 6th inning or beyond.
Key Betting Trends & Team Statistics That Matter
- The Mets have won 10 of their last 15 games overall and are 3-1 against the Dodgers this season
- New York is 13-15 on the road this season, but has won 5 of their last 8 away games
- Los Angeles is 19-10 at Dodger Stadium this season
- The Mets are 11-4 in their last 15 games when facing left-handed starting pitchers
- The Dodgers are 7-1 in Clayton Kershaw’s last 8 home starts dating back to last season
- The under is 7-3 in Tylor Megill’s 10 starts this season
- Francisco Lindor has 6 leadoff home runs this season, tied with Shohei Ohtani for the MLB lead
- The Mets have the second-best record in baseball (38-22) and are 103-61 in their last 164 games
Francisco Lindor’s Power Surge: How the Mets Shortstop is Driving the Offense
Francisco Lindor has been on an absolute tear, hitting his 14th home run of the season to lead off yesterday’s game. He’s now homered in four of his last five games and has tied Shohei Ohtani for the MLB lead with six leadoff homers this season. The Mets have won 26 consecutive games when Lindor goes deep, highlighting his importance to their success. With Kershaw showing vulnerability early in counts during his limited action this season, Lindor could be poised for another big night. His matchup against Kershaw is particularly intriguing given his success against lefties (.291 with a .529 slugging percentage) this season.
Dodger Stadium Factor: How the Venue Influences Today’s Game
Dodger Stadium typically plays as a pitcher-friendly park, but evening games in June can favor hitters as the ball tends to carry better in the warmer night air. Tonight’s forecast calls for temperatures around 72°F at first pitch with minimal wind, creating neutral conditions. The Dodgers have allowed 4+ runs in six of their last eight home games, suggesting their typical home field pitching advantage has been somewhat neutralized lately. For the Mets, who struggled at Dodger Stadium during last year’s NLCS, Monday’s extra-inning victory could provide the confidence boost needed to overcome any psychological barriers at this venue where their 2024 season ended.
Expert Prediction & Best Bets for Mets-Dodgers Showdown
Primary Play: New York Mets Moneyline (+115)
I’m backing the Mets at plus-money in a matchup where they have distinct advantages. Tylor Megill gives New York a significant edge in starting pitching against a limited version of Clayton Kershaw who’s still building strength after surgery. The Dodgers’ bullpen fatigue and the Mets’ recent success against LA (winning 3 of 4 meetings this season) further support this play. With Kershaw likely capped around 4-5 innings, the Dodgers will need to cover significant innings with a taxed bullpen. I’d play the Mets down to +105.
Strong Value Play: Tylor Megill Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+100)
Megill’s strikeout upside makes this prop particularly appealing at even money. He’s averaging 12.1 K/9 this season and the Dodgers have been susceptible to strikeouts lately, fanning 27 times in their last three games. Even with Mookie Betts likely returning to the lineup, Los Angeles has several hitters who will expand their zones against Megill’s slider and high fastball combination. Megill has recorded 7+ strikeouts in six of his ten starts this season, and I expect him to clear this number against an aggressive Dodgers lineup.
Worth Considering: Under 9.5 Total Runs (-110)
Despite the total moving up to 9.5, I see value on the under. Megill has been excellent at limiting hard contact this season, and while Kershaw may not go deep, he’s still capable of navigating the Mets lineup effectively for 4-5 innings. The Dodgers will also deploy their best available relievers after yesterday’s loss, and night games at Dodger Stadium typically favor pitchers. Seven of Megill’s ten starts have gone under the total this season, and I expect another relatively low-scoring affair tonight.
Player Props Worth Targeting in Today’s Matchup
| Player | Prop | Odds | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tylor Megill | Over 6.5 Strikeouts | +100 | ★★★★☆ |
| Francisco Lindor | To Hit a Home Run | +350 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Mookie Betts | Under 1.5 Total Bases | -120 | ★★★★☆ |
| Pete Alonso | Over 0.5 RBIs | +145 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Clayton Kershaw | Under 4.5 Strikeouts | -135 | ★★★★☆ |
Final Thoughts: Mets Building Case as NL’s Best Team
The Mets continue to prove they belong in the conversation as the NL’s best team. Their victory in Monday’s series opener wasn’t just another win – it represented a psychological hurdle cleared at the venue where their 2024 season ended. With Francisco Lindor leading an offense that’s finding its rhythm and Tylor Megill establishing himself as a legitimate top-of-rotation arm, New York matches up well against a Dodgers team still integrating key pieces like Kershaw. While Los Angeles remains dangerous, particularly at home, the combination of Kershaw’s limitations, bullpen fatigue, and the Mets’ current form makes the road underdogs the value side in this heavyweight matchup.
Score Prediction: Mets 5, Dodgers 3
