The struggling Miami Marlins (24-39) head to PNC Park to face the equally disappointing Pittsburgh Pirates (26-40) in Monday’s National League matchup between division cellar-dwellers. While neither team has much to celebrate in 2025, this series opener presents some intriguing betting opportunities. The Pirates come in with momentum after sweeping the Phillies, while Miami looks to bounce back after dropping two of three to the Rays.
Quick Picks:
- Best Bet: Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline (-114) ★★★★☆
- Top Prop: Oneil Cruz Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130) ★★★★☆
- Value Play: Under 8.5 Runs (-110) ★★★☆☆
Marlins vs Pirates Betting Odds & Latest Line Movement
| Market | Miami Marlins | Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -105 | -114 |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-185) | -1.5 (+155) |
| Total | Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110) |
Opening Line: Pirates -114, Total 8.5
Sharp Money Analysis: Where Pro Bettors Are Placing Their Wagers
The line in this game has held remarkably steady since opening, with Pittsburgh as a slight home favorite. Despite the Pirates’ recent sweep of Philadelphia, we haven’t seen significant movement toward them, suggesting sharp money isn’t overly enthusiastic about either side. The total has also remained stable at 8.5, though I’m watching for potential late downward movement as both teams feature struggling offenses and the pitching matchup could prove better than the numbers suggest.
Pitching Matchup: Eury Perez vs Mike Burrows – Who Has the Edge?
Miami Marlins: Eury Perez (0-0)
- Making his 2025 season debut after missing significant time with elbow issues
- Showed tremendous promise as a rookie in 2024 with a 3.15 ERA
- Electric fastball and plus breaking stuff when healthy
- Will likely be on a strict pitch count (70-80 pitches expected)
Pittsburgh Pirates: Mike Burrows (1-1, 5.27 ERA)
- Showing signs of improvement after struggling early in the season
- 11 strikeouts in 13.2 innings with a 1.32 WHIP
- Better at home (3.86 ERA) than on the road (6.95 ERA)
- Coming off a quality start against Arizona where he allowed just 2 ER in 6 innings
Advantage: Slight edge to Pittsburgh. While Perez has the higher ceiling, his pitch count limitations and rust from extended time off give Burrows the practical advantage in this matchup.
Bullpen Breakdown
The Pirates’ bullpen has been one of their few relative strengths this season, ranking 8th in the NL with a 3.84 team ERA. They’ve been particularly effective during their recent hot streak, allowing just 4 runs over their last 10.1 innings of work.
Miami’s relief corps has struggled with consistency all season, posting a collective 4.62 ERA. They were taxed heavily in Sunday’s loss to Tampa Bay when their bullpen had to cover all 9 innings of the game. Several key relievers will be operating on short rest, putting the Marlins at a significant disadvantage if this game remains close into the later innings.
Key Betting Trends & Team Statistics That Matter
- Pirates are riding a 3-game home winning streak
- Miami is just 10-19 on the road this season
- Pirates are 6-4 in their last 10 games while Miami is 3-7
- The Marlins lead the season series 3-1
- Pittsburgh has averaged just 3.17 runs per game (second-worst in MLB)
- Miami’s defense has allowed 1.52 stolen bases per game (worst in MLB)
- The under is 7-3 in the Pirates’ last 10 home games
- Pittsburgh’s pitching staff has allowed the third-fewest home runs in the NL
Oneil Cruz: Pittsburgh’s Emerging Star Finding His Stride
Oneil Cruz has been a rare bright spot for the Pirates in 2025, leading the team with 12 home runs and showing the power-speed combination that makes him such an intriguing talent. While his overall average remains modest, Cruz has been much better at PNC Park, where he’s hitting .267 with 7 of his 12 homers.
What makes this matchup particularly appealing for Cruz is his history against hard-throwing right-handers like Perez. Cruz has a .298 average against pitchers throwing 95+ mph this season, suggesting he might thrive against Perez’s power arsenal. Combined with Perez potentially showing rust in his first start back, Cruz’s over 1.5 total bases looks particularly appealing at +130 odds.
PNC Park Factor: How the Venue Influences Today’s Game
PNC Park continues to play as one of the more pitcher-friendly venues in baseball, particularly for right-handed power. The park’s spacious left field and deep left-center alley have helped the Pirates suppress home runs (just 0.82 HR per game allowed at home).
Monday’s forecast calls for temperatures around 75 degrees with minimal wind, providing neutral conditions that should favor pitchers. With both teams struggling offensively (Pittsburgh ranks 29th in runs scored, Miami 27th), the park effects further support a potential under play.
Expert Prediction & Best Bets for Marlins-Pirates Showdown
Primary Play: Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline (-114) – 2 Units
I’m backing the Pirates at home in this matchup for several compelling reasons. First, they’re coming off a confidence-building sweep of Philadelphia while Miami is reeling from another series loss. Second, Burrows has shown marked improvement at home, while Perez faces significant unknowns in his first start back from injury. Finally, Pittsburgh’s bullpen advantage becomes increasingly important considering Perez’s expected pitch count limitations. At just -114, I see substantial value on the home team.
Strong Value Play: Under 8.5 Runs (-110)
Both offenses rank among the worst in baseball, and they’ll be playing in a pitcher-friendly park with neutral weather conditions. Perez may be limited in innings but should be effective while on the mound, and Burrows has shown the ability to keep the ball in the yard at PNC Park. With Miami’s bullpen taxed from Sunday’s game and Pittsburgh’s relievers performing well lately, I expect a relatively low-scoring affair. I’d play this under down to 8 runs.
Worth Considering: Oneil Cruz Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Cruz has been Pittsburgh’s most consistent power threat and has thrived against high-velocity pitchers like Perez. With the Marlins’ starter likely showing some rust in his season debut, Cruz should get at least one favorable pitch to drive. His home/road splits heavily favor PNC Park performances, making this prop my favorite player-specific wager in this matchup.
Player Props Worth Targeting in Today’s Matchup
| Player | Prop | Odds | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz | Over 1.5 Total Bases | +130 | ★★★★☆ |
| Kyle Stowers | To Hit a Home Run | +475 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa | Over 1.5 Hits | +190 | ★★★★☆ |
| Eury Perez | Under 4.5 Strikeouts | -125 | ★★★☆☆ |
Final Thoughts: Home Field Advantage Proves Decisive
While neither of these teams will be playing meaningful October baseball, the Pirates have the clear edge in this particular matchup. The combination of Pittsburgh’s home field advantage, bullpen superiority, and Miami’s recent struggles all point toward a Pirates victory. Expect a relatively low-scoring affair where Pittsburgh’s recent momentum carries them to a narrow win to kick off the series.
Score Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates 4, Miami Marlins 2
