Seattle Mariners (27-20) vs. Chicago White Sox (15-34)
When: Wednesday, May 21, 2025, 2:10 PM EDT
Where: Rate Field, Chicago, IL
TV: Root Sports Northwest, NBC Sports Chicago
Betting Odds
Runline: Mariners -1.5 (+135) / White Sox +1.5 (-155)
Total: 8 (Over -110, Under -110)
Money Line: Mariners -156 / White Sox +131
AL West Leaders Look for Series Win
The first-place Seattle Mariners aim to take the rubber match against the struggling Chicago White Sox on Wednesday afternoon. After taking the opener 5-1 behind Julio Rodriguez’s grand slam, Seattle dropped a tight 1-0 decision on Tuesday despite holding Chicago to just one run. Now the Mariners send young Logan Evans to the mound against White Sox rookie Shane Smith in a compelling pitching matchup that features two starters with contrasting profiles.
Sharp Money Take
The line opened with Seattle at -145 and has steadily ticked up to -156 despite Tuesday’s shutout loss. This signals professional money continued confidence in the Mariners against one of baseball’s worst teams. While the White Sox pulled off a 1-0 win last night, sharp bettors aren’t buying the upset potential in the series finale, pushing the Mariners price higher despite the public likely being hesitant after last night’s offensive struggles.
Key Matchup Analysis
Logan Evans (2-1, 4.71 ERA, 1.57 WHIP) makes his third start for the injury-depleted Mariners rotation. The young right-hander has shown promise despite the inflated ERA, with his last outing against San Diego being particularly impressive. Evans utilized his fastball effectively against the Padres, keeping their potent lineup off-balance.
Shane Smith (1-3, 2.05 ERA, 1.14 WHIP) continues to be a rare bright spot for Chicago. The rookie right-hander has been dominant with 43 strikeouts in his starts, demonstrating excellent command despite the lack of run support. His 2.05 ERA stands in stark contrast to his 1-3 record, highlighting the White Sox offensive struggles.
The Mariners’ bullpen has been excellent with a 3.36 ERA over their last 10 games, while Chicago’s relievers have been inconsistent but showed some resilience in Tuesday’s victory. That said, high-leverage arm Cam Booser had to work out of a bases-loaded jam last night and may be limited today.
Situational Factors
The White Sox avoided setting the worst 49-game start in franchise history with Tuesday’s win, snapping a five-game losing streak in the process. They’re now 10-13 at home compared to an abysmal 5-21 on the road.
Seattle is 14-9 away from T-Mobile Park this season, showcasing their ability to win regardless of venue. The Mariners are 12-6 in games where they hit multiple home runs, though their offense has been cold lately, batting just .197 over their last 10 games.
The series is tied 1-1, with both games featuring stellar pitching. Monday saw Julio Rodriguez break open a tight game with an eighth-inning grand slam, while Tuesday featured the White Sox winning 1-0 behind Adrian Houser’s impressive debut.
Weather could be a factor with temperatures in the low 50s, wind gusts up to 20 mph, and possible rain in the forecast – conditions that may suppress offense once again.
Statistical Edges
Cal Raleigh leads the Mariners with 15 home runs and a .559 slugging percentage, providing consistent power from the catcher position. However, Seattle’s offense has been inconsistent lately, being outscored by two runs over their last 10 games.
Miguel Vargas has been Chicago’s top performer with six home runs while slugging .407. He was recently named AL Player of the Week, suggesting he’s finding his stroke despite the team’s overall struggles.
The White Sox are just 8-26 in games where they allow at least one home run, highlighting their vulnerability when opponents connect for extra bases. Seattle is 5-5 in their last 10 games despite their mediocre team batting average, showing their resilience.
The Verdict
Play Mariners -156 (2 units). While Chicago’s Shane Smith has impressive numbers, Seattle’s overall roster quality and road performance create significant value. Evans showed tremendous improvement in his last start, and the Mariners’ superior lineup should find ways to score against a White Sox team that ranks near the bottom in most offensive categories.
The pitching matchup is closer than the records suggest, but Seattle’s significant advantage in team quality makes the money line attractive despite being a road favorite. I expect Seattle to manufacture 3-4 runs while Evans delivers a quality start.
As a secondary play, consider Under 8 runs (1 unit) given the cold, windy conditions at Rate Field, pitching advantages, and the fact that both offenses have been struggling. Tuesday’s game produced just one total run, and while we shouldn’t expect quite that level of offensive futility, the conditions favor another relatively low-scoring affair.
