The Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets wrap up their three-game series tonight at Citi Field with the rubber match after splitting the first two games. The pitching matchup features a fascinating contrast between Dodgers rookie Landon Knack, who has struggled with consistency, against Mets ace Kodai Senga, who boasts one of the best ERAs in baseball. This showdown between NL contenders gives us several intriguing betting angles to explore.
Quick Picks:
– Best Bet: Mets ML (-136) ★★★★☆
– Top Prop: Kodai Senga Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-115) ★★★★☆
– Value Play: Under 8.5 Runs (-110) ★★★☆☆
Dodgers vs Mets Betting Odds & Latest Line Movement
| Market | Dodgers | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +115 | -136 |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-155) | -1.5 (+135) |
| Total | Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110) |
Opening Line: Mets -130, Total 8.5
Pitching Matchup: Landon Knack vs Kodai Senga – Who Has the Edge?
Dodgers: Landon Knack (2-1, 6.17 ERA)
- 23.1 innings pitched with a concerning 6.17 ERA
- 23 strikeouts against 10 walks (1.54 WHIP)
- Has allowed at least 3 earned runs in 3 of his 4 starts
- Struggling with command as evidenced by his high WHIP
Mets: Kodai Senga (4-3, 1.43 ERA)
- Dominant 1.43 ERA across 50.1 innings pitched
- 47 strikeouts with 22 walks (1.19 WHIP)
- Has allowed 2 or fewer runs in all 8 starts this season
- Coming off 7 innings of one-run ball against the Red Sox
Advantage: Mets – Senga’s elite ERA and consistency give the Mets a significant edge in the starting pitching department.
Bullpen Breakdown
The Mets’ bullpen was heavily taxed in Friday’s 13-inning marathon but got some relief when David Peterson went 7.2 innings in Saturday’s win. Edwin Díaz has been nearly untouchable, not allowing a hit to his past 28 batters faced. The Dodgers’ bullpen has been inconsistent lately, with Tanner Scott struggling in high-leverage situations. Both teams have made recent roster moves to add fresh arms, but the Mets’ late-inning options look stronger heading into tonight’s finale.
Key Betting Trends & Team Statistics That Matter
- Mets are 18-6 at home this season, one of the best home records in baseball
- Dodgers are 13-12 on the road but 20-7 when hitting multiple home runs
- Mets are 4-6 in their last 10 games with a .204 team batting average
- Dodgers are 5-5 in their last 10 games with a .263 team batting average
- Mets have held opponents to 3.29 runs per game (compared to Dodgers’ 4.46)
- The under is 6-3-1 in the Mets’ last 10 home games when Senga starts
Shohei Ohtani: Can He Bounce Back After Being “Humanized”?
Ohtani was completely neutralized by David Peterson yesterday, striking out three times and going 0-for-4. This was a rare off night for the slugger who leads the NL with 17 home runs. Ohtani has historically responded well after poor performances, batting .328 with 5 home runs in games following 0-for-4 outings this season. However, he’ll face an equally tough challenge tonight against Senga’s devastating “ghost” forkball, which has been nearly unhittable this season.
Citi Field Factor: How the Venue Influences Today’s Game
Citi Field has played relatively pitcher-friendly this season, especially during night games. The wind has been a factor in this series already, turning what looked like a Juan Soto home run yesterday into a routine fly out. Tonight’s forecast calls for temperatures in the mid-60s with light winds blowing in from right field, which should further help the pitchers. The Mets’ impressive 18-6 home record shows they’re extremely comfortable in their own ballpark.
Expert Prediction & Best Bets for Dodgers-Mets Showdown
Primary Play: Mets Moneyline (-136)
This is a pitching mismatch that heavily favors New York. Senga has been absolutely dominant with his 1.43 ERA, while Knack has struggled with a 6.17 ERA and has had trouble keeping the ball in the park. The Mets’ 18-6 home record is no fluke, and they’ll be motivated to win this rubber match against the defending champions. While the -136 price isn’t cheap, the pitching advantage alone justifies this play.
Strong Value Play: Under 8.5 Runs (-110)
With Senga on the mound for the Mets, runs should be at a premium for the Dodgers. The Japanese ace has yet to allow more than two earned runs in any start this season. While Knack has been inconsistent, he’ll be facing a Mets offense that’s hitting just .204 over their last 10 games. Both bullpens have solid late-inning options, and Citi Field’s dimensions should help keep the scoring in check.
Worth Considering: Dodgers Under 3.5 Runs (-115)
Senga has been extremely stingy this season, and the Dodgers’ offense looked completely out of sync against Peterson yesterday. Ohtani is due for a bounce-back game, but Senga’s ghost forkball is the perfect weapon to neutralize power hitters. The Mets have held opponents to just 3.29 runs per game this season, and I expect them to keep the Dodgers’ bats relatively quiet tonight.
Player Props Worth Targeting in Today’s Matchup
| Player | Prop | Odds | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kodai Senga | Over 6.5 Strikeouts | -115 | ★★★★☆ |
| Brett Baty | Over 1.5 Total Bases | +125 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Shohei Ohtani | Under 1.5 Total Bases | +110 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Landon Knack | Under 4.5 Strikeouts | -120 | ★★★☆☆ |
Final Thoughts: Senga’s Elite Pitching Should Carry the Mets
While the Dodgers have the deeper lineup, tonight’s game comes down to the massive pitching advantage for the Mets. Senga has been one of MLB’s best starters this season, and his ghost forkball gives even the most dangerous lineups fits. The Mets have also been playing exceptional baseball at home (18-6), giving them multiple edges in this rubber match.
Brett Baty’s hot streak provides additional support for the Mets’ offense, as the young third baseman has reached base multiple times in three straight games. If Juan Soto can build on yesterday’s clutch two-run double, the Mets should generate enough offense to back Senga’s elite pitching.
Score Prediction: Mets 4, Dodgers 2
