Dodgers vs Mets Prediction: Clash of Titans at Citi Field (May 23, 2025)
The Los Angeles Dodgers (31-19) and New York Mets (30-20) kick off a highly anticipated three-game series Friday night at Citi Field, in what could be a preview of October baseball. This marquee matchup features two of the National League’s elite teams, with both squads looking to establish themselves as the team to beat in the Senior Circuit. With Clayton Kershaw making just his second start of the season against Griffin Canning, who’s been a revelation for the Mets, this series opener promises to deliver high-quality baseball.
Betting Odds for Dodgers vs Mets (May 23, 2025)
- Moneyline: Dodgers (-120) | Mets (+100)
- Run Line: Dodgers -1.5 (+134) | Mets +1.5 (-161)
- Total: 8.5 runs (Over -120, Under -101)
- Game Time: 7:10 PM ET
- Location: Citi Field, Queens, NY
- TV: Apple TV+
Starting Pitching Matchup
Clayton Kershaw (0-0, 11.25 ERA) vs. Griffin Canning (5-1, 2.47 ERA)
Kershaw is making just his second start of the 2025 season after returning from injury. His season debut against the Angels was rocky (4 IP, 5 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 2 Ks), but the future Hall of Famer historically rebounds well after poor outings.
Canning has been one of baseball’s biggest surprises this season. The former Angel has found his stride in New York, posting an impressive 5-1 record with a 2.47 ERA. His last outing against the Yankees was solid: 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 4 Ks.
Team Form Analysis
Los Angeles Dodgers: After a four-game losing skid, the Dodgers have rebounded with two consecutive wins, looking to build momentum on this East Coast swing. Shohei Ohtani leads MLB with 17 home runs, while Freddie Freeman is scorching hot, batting .413 in May.
New York Mets: The Mets have hit a rough patch, losing four of their last six games. The biggest concern has been Juan Soto’s struggles to adapt to his new team. Despite the recent cooling, the Mets still boast one of the NL’s best records and remain dangerous at home.
Key Batting Matchups
Dodgers Hitters to Watch:
– Freddie Freeman: Leading the team with a .368 average and riding a five-game hitting streak
– Shohei Ohtani: MLB-leading 17 home runs and a consistent power threat
– Mookie Betts: Entering with a three-game hitting streak, batting .286 with 2 HR in his last five games
Mets Hitters to Watch:
– Francisco Lindor: Team leader with 10 home runs and a catalyst for the offense
– Pete Alonso: Batting a team-high .292 with 37 RBIs
– Juan Soto: Due for a breakout after a 5-for-35 slump with zero extra-base hits over his last 10 games
Bullpen Comparison
The Dodgers’ bullpen has shown some vulnerability lately with a 5.14 ERA over their last 10 games. The Mets’ relievers have been much more effective, posting a 2.51 ERA in their last 10 contests. This could be a decisive factor if the game remains close into the later innings.
Critical Betting Trends
- The Dodgers are 28-16 as favorites this season
- The Mets are 7-7 as underdogs this year
- The Under is 4-1 in the Dodgers’ last 5 games against NL teams
- The Mets have failed to cover the Run Line in 5 of their last 7 home games
- The Dodgers are 5-5 in their last 10 games
- The Mets are 5-5 in their last 10 games
Prediction and Best Bet
Kershaw’s return from injury has been shaky, and I don’t expect him to go deep into this game. Meanwhile, Canning has been consistently excellent for the Mets this season. The key factor here is Canning’s ability to limit damage against a potent Dodgers lineup combined with the Mets’ superior bullpen performance of late.
While the Dodgers have more offensive firepower with Ohtani, Freeman, and Betts all contributing, the Mets’ home-field advantage and pitching edge should prevail. I expect a close, low-scoring affair with the Mets pulling out a narrow victory.
| Best Bet | Odds | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| New York Mets Moneyline | +100 | ★★★★☆ |
| Under 8.5 Runs | -101 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases | +135 (projected) | ★★★★☆ |
The combination of Kershaw’s uncertain form, Canning’s reliability, and the Mets’ desperation to snap out of their recent funk makes the home underdog a compelling play here. I’ll take the Mets at even money to secure a statement win in the series opener. Final score prediction: Mets 4, Dodgers 3.
