The Los Angeles Dodgers (38-27) look to salvage the final game of their three-game series against the St. Louis Cardinals (36-28) on Sunday afternoon at Busch Stadium. After dropping the first two games by scores of 5-0 and 2-1, the Dodgers’ offense has mysteriously gone silent, going an abysmal 1-for-25 with runners in scoring position in the series. I’m expecting Clayton Kershaw to provide stability on the mound, but the matchup against Cardinals rookie Michael McGreevy creates an intriguing dynamic that savvy bettors should exploit.
Quick Picks:
- Best Bet: Under 9 Runs (-110) ★★★★☆
- Top Prop: Mookie Betts Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115) ★★★★☆
- Value Play: Cardinals Moneyline (+140) ★★★☆☆
Dodgers vs Cardinals Betting Odds & Latest Line Movement
| Market | Los Angeles Dodgers | St. Louis Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -160 | +140 |
| Run Line | -1.5 (+125) | +1.5 (-145) |
| Total | Over 9 (-110) | Under 9 (-110) |
Opening Line: Dodgers -150, Total 9
Sharp Money Analysis: Where Pro Bettors Are Placing Their Wagers
The initial line movement favoring the Dodgers (from -150 to -160) suggests some professional respect for Kershaw despite his underwhelming early-season numbers. However, I’m seeing subtle resistance to that move with some smaller bets coming in on the Cardinals at the improved price. The total has held steady at 9, which is noteworthy considering the offensive struggles both teams have displayed in this series. Sharp money appears hesitant to chase the under despite recent scoring trends, likely factoring in Kershaw’s rust and McGreevy’s inexperience.
Pitching Matchup: Clayton Kershaw vs Michael McGreevy – Who Has the Edge?
Los Angeles Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw (0-0, 5.17 ERA)
- Making just his fourth start of 2025 after offseason shoulder surgery
- Command issues evident with 9 walks against just 8 strikeouts in 15.2 innings
- Velocity hovering around 89-90 mph, down slightly from his career norms
- Historically excellent at Busch Stadium with a 2.87 ERA in 12 career starts
St. Louis Cardinals: Michael McGreevy (1-0, 0.00 ERA)
- Cardinals’ No. 10 prospect making just his second MLB start of the season
- Impressive MLB debut: 5.2 shutout innings with 5 Ks against the Mets on May 4
- Dominant at Triple-A with 2.78 ERA in 11 starts this season
- Features a four-pitch mix with excellent command (0.35 WHIP in limited MLB action)
Advantage: Slight edge to Cardinals. While Kershaw brings the pedigree, his current form raises concerns. McGreevy has been exceptional across all levels this season, and the Dodgers’ struggling offense may struggle against an unfamiliar pitcher.
Bullpen Breakdown
The Cardinals bullpen has been impressively effective in this series, limiting the powerful Dodgers lineup to just one run across 10 innings of work. Their collective 3.36 ERA ranks 8th in baseball, while their 1.18 WHIP is even more impressive at 5th best. The Dodgers relievers have posted similar numbers (3.41 ERA, 7th in MLB), but their recent workload has been concerning with their starters averaging just 5.1 innings per start over the past week. The activation of Kirby Yates and Michael Kopech from the IL provides fresh arms, but the Cardinals still maintain a slight edge in bullpen effectiveness and rest heading into Sunday’s finale.
Key Betting Trends & Team Statistics That Matter
- The Dodgers are 1-for-25 with runners in scoring position in this series
- St. Louis is 15-11 at home this season while Los Angeles is 17-16 on the road
- The under is 7-3 in the Dodgers’ last 10 games
- The Cardinals are 6-1 in their last 7 Sunday games
- Los Angeles is batting just .232 as a team in June, down from their .266 season average
- The Dodgers have scored 3 or fewer runs in 4 of their last 5 games
- The Cardinals have allowed just 3 home runs in their last 7 games
- Clayton Kershaw has allowed 3+ runs in 2 of his 3 starts this season
Mookie Betts: Leading the Charge Through Dodgers’ Offensive Struggles
While the Dodgers’ offense has been surprisingly stagnant in this series, Mookie Betts has been a notable exception. The former MVP has recorded consecutive three-hit games and is now batting .312 on the season. His success against right-handed pitching (.328 BA, .982 OPS) makes him a particularly strong play against the rookie McGreevy. What’s most impressive about Betts’ recent performance is his ability to hit for power while maintaining contact – he’s collected 5 extra-base hits in his last 7 games without a single strikeout. This disciplined approach against a young pitcher making just his second MLB start creates significant value in the Betts over 1.5 total bases market.
Busch Stadium Factor: How the Venue Influences Today’s Game
Busch Stadium has historically played as a pitcher-friendly park, ranking 23rd in run-scoring environment over the past three seasons. The dimensions (335′ down the lines, 400′ to center) are relatively standard, but the stadium suppresses home runs significantly, with a home run factor of 0.842 (where 1.000 is league average). This defensive environment may further challenge the struggling Dodgers lineup while benefiting both Kershaw and McGreevy. Sunday’s forecast calls for temperatures around 77°F with 7-10 mph winds blowing in from right field, adding another layer of difficulty for hitters. These conditions align perfectly with an under play, especially considering the recent offensive trends in this series.
Expert Prediction & Best Bets for Dodgers-Cardinals Showdown
Primary Play: Under 9 Runs (-110)
I’m making the under my primary play because everything in this matchup points toward another low-scoring affair. The Dodgers’ offense has completely stalled in St. Louis, going 1-for-25 with RISP in the series. Meanwhile, Kershaw, despite his early-season struggles, should benefit from Busch Stadium’s pitcher-friendly confines. Add in McGreevy’s impressive command (0.35 WHIP in limited MLB action) and a weather forecast featuring winds blowing in, and you have the perfect recipe for an under. I’d play this down to 8.5 runs.
Strong Value Play: Cardinals Moneyline (+140)
Getting the home team at +140 with the Dodgers in an offensive funk represents strong value. McGreevy was exceptional in his only previous MLB start (5.2 shutout innings against the Mets) and has dominated Triple-A (2.78 ERA in 11 starts). Meanwhile, Kershaw is still finding his form after offseason surgery, with command issues evident (9 walks vs. 8 Ks). The Cardinals have momentum after winning the first two games of the series, and I expect them to complete the sweep at this generous price point.
Worth Considering: Mookie Betts Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115)
Betts has been the lone bright spot in the Dodgers’ lineup with consecutive three-hit games. His approach against right-handed pitching has been excellent all season (.328 BA, .982 OPS), and he should fare well against the rookie McGreevy. With Betts clearing this threshold in 6 of his last 8 games and seeing the ball exceptionally well, the plus-money odds provide significant value.
Player Props Worth Targeting in Today’s Matchup
| Player | Prop | Odds | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mookie Betts | Over 1.5 Total Bases | +115 | ★★★★☆ |
| Clayton Kershaw | Under 4.5 Strikeouts | -120 | ★★★★☆ |
| Nolan Gorman | To Hit a Home Run | +380 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Freddie Freeman | Under 1.5 Hits | -175 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Masyn Winn | Over 0.5 Stolen Bases | +240 | ★★★☆☆ |
Final Thoughts: Dodgers’ Bats Need to Awaken or Cardinals Will Complete the Sweep
The Dodgers entered this series with one of baseball’s most potent offenses but have been completely neutralized in St. Louis. With Kershaw still finding his form and McGreevy showing tremendous promise, I expect another pitching-dominated contest. The Cardinals’ balanced approach and home-field advantage should be enough to complete the sweep, but the strongest play remains the under. Look for another tense, low-scoring affair that ultimately favors the Cardinals at a value price of +140. If the Dodgers are going to avoid the sweep, they’ll need to find solutions with runners in scoring position quickly.
Score Prediction: Cardinals 4, Dodgers 3
