The Los Angeles Dodgers (38-25) head to Busch Stadium to face the St. Louis Cardinals (34-28) in a matchup that features one of the most intriguing pitching mismatches of the weekend. The Cardinals send veteran ace Sonny Gray to the mound while the Dodgers counter with inexperienced lefty Justin Wrobleski making just his third career start. With the Cardinals playing excellent baseball at home (20-10) and the Dodgers dealing with significant pitching injuries, this series opener presents several compelling betting angles worth exploring.
Quick Picks:
- Best Bet: St. Louis Cardinals Moneyline (-102) ★★★★☆
- Top Prop: Lars Nootbaar Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125) ★★★★☆
- Value Play: Under 9 Runs (-110) ★★★☆☆
Los Angeles Dodgers vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Odds & Latest Line Movement
| Market | Los Angeles Dodgers | St. Louis Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -118 | -102 |
| Run Line | -1.5 (+145) | +1.5 (-165) |
| Total | Over 9 (-110) | Under 9 (-110) |
Opening Line: Dodgers -115, Total 8.5
Sharp Money Analysis: Where Pro Bettors Are Placing Their Wagers
The line movement in this game has been minimal, with the Dodgers opening as slight -115 favorites and now sitting at -118. What’s more telling is that despite the Dodgers’ strong public backing and impressive overall record, we haven’t seen the line move significantly in their direction. This suggests professional money is finding value on the Cardinals at home with their ace on the mound. The total has climbed from 8.5 to 9, reflecting slight concern about the Dodgers’ pitching situation but nothing dramatic enough to indicate an expected slugfest.
Pitching Matchup: Justin Wrobleski vs Sonny Gray – Who Has the Edge?
Los Angeles Dodgers: Justin Wrobleski (1-1, 8.00 ERA)
- Has made just two career MLB starts with concerning results (8.00 ERA, 1.33 WHIP)
- Struggled with command, walking 3 batters in just 9 innings pitched
- Coming off a rough Triple-A start where he allowed 5 runs in 4 innings
- Will be facing a Cardinals lineup that’s much more successful against left-handed pitching
St. Louis Cardinals: Sonny Gray (6-1, 3.65 ERA)
- Dominating at home with a 2.91 ERA in Busch Stadium this season
- Elite strikeout-to-walk ratio (76:14) over 69 innings pitched
- Holding opponents to a .239 batting average with 1.12 WHIP
- Has gone at least 6 innings in 8 of his 11 starts this season
Advantage: Significant edge to St. Louis. Gray is a legitimate frontline starter having an excellent season, while Wrobleski is a rookie being thrust into action due to the Dodgers’ injury crisis.
Bullpen Breakdown
The Dodgers’ bullpen has been significantly taxed in recent games, particularly after Thursday’s come-from-behind win against the Mets where they needed 5.2 relief innings. Los Angeles will welcome back relievers Kirby Yates and Michael Kopech from the injured list this weekend, but the timing of their activation and immediate effectiveness remains uncertain. The Cardinals’ bullpen has been middle-of-the-pack statistically but more rested heading into this series. With Gray’s tendency to work deep into games, St. Louis should have a strategic advantage in relief options for the late innings.
Key Betting Trends & Team Statistics That Matter
- The Cardinals are an impressive 20-10 at Busch Stadium this season
- St. Louis is 24-6 when scoring at least 5 runs in a game
- The Dodgers are just 15-14 on the road this season, showing vulnerability away from Chavez Ravine
- Los Angeles has 15 pitchers currently on the injured list, severely testing their depth
- St. Louis is 5-5 in their last 10 games while the Dodgers are 6-4
- The Cardinals are 7-3 in Sonny Gray’s last 10 starts
- Dodgers are batting .266 as a team (3rd in MLB) while the Cardinals are hitting .257 (10th)
- Los Angeles hits significantly more home runs (1.60 per game vs. 0.90 for St. Louis)
Lars Nootbaar: Cardinals’ Power Threat Heating Up
Lars Nootbaar has emerged as the Cardinals’ most consistent power threat, leading the team with 8 home runs this season. While his recent numbers suggest a slight cooling period (6-for-38 in his last 10 games), he’s shown the ability to break out with multi-hit performances against left-handed pitching. Against an inexperienced southpaw like Wrobleski who has struggled with command, Nootbaar presents a compelling prop opportunity. His experience and comfort level at Busch Stadium make his over 1.5 total bases prop (+125) particularly attractive in this matchup.
Busch Stadium Factor: How the Venue Influences Today’s Game
Busch Stadium has played as a pitcher-friendly park in 2025, ranking in the bottom third of MLB venues for run scoring. The outfield dimensions and typical weather conditions in St. Louis favor pitchers who can induce ground balls and limit hard contact. This environment significantly benefits Gray, whose ground ball tendencies and ability to keep the ball in the park have been cornerstones of his success. With temperatures expected in the mid-70s and light winds, weather shouldn’t be a major factor in this contest. The Cardinals’ familiarity with their home ballpark gives them another slight edge, particularly for defensive positioning and outfield play.
Expert Prediction & Best Bets for Dodgers-Cardinals Showdown
Primary Play: St. Louis Cardinals Moneyline (-102)
I’m taking the Cardinals as my primary play tonight. The pitching mismatch alone warrants a play on St. Louis at near even money. Sonny Gray has been exceptional this season, particularly at home, while Justin Wrobleski has shown little to inspire confidence in just two major league starts. Add in the Cardinals’ strong 20-10 home record, and this line looks mispriced based on the Dodgers’ reputation rather than the specific matchup factors. At -102, we’re getting excellent value on the home team with the significantly better starting pitcher.
Strong Value Play: Lars Nootbaar Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Nootbaar stands to benefit greatly from facing a rookie left-hander who’s struggled with command. As the Cardinals’ leading home run hitter, he only needs one solid connection to cash this prop. At +125, there’s significant value here considering Wrobleski’s tendency to leave pitches in hittable locations. Nootbaar has exceeded 1.5 total bases in 4 of his last 11 games, making this an appealing plus-money opportunity.
Worth Considering: Under 9 Runs (-110)
While the Dodgers’ offensive prowess is well-documented, Sonny Gray should be able to limit damage for at least 6 innings. Busch Stadium’s pitcher-friendly confines combined with the Cardinals’ middling offense (4.69 runs per game) creates a scenario where the under has value. The total has moved up from 8.5 to 9, giving us a slightly better number to work with. Expect Gray to set the tone for a relatively low-scoring affair.
Player Props Worth Targeting in Today’s Matchup
| Player | Prop | Odds | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lars Nootbaar | Over 1.5 Total Bases | +125 | ★★★★☆ |
| Sonny Gray | Over 6.5 Strikeouts | -115 | ★★★★☆ |
| Nolan Arenado | To Record an RBI | +155 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Mookie Betts | Under 1.5 Hits | -165 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Justin Wrobleski | Under 4.5 Strikeouts | -130 | ★★★★☆ |
Final Thoughts: Cardinals’ Home Field and Pitching Advantage Will Prevail
The Dodgers enter this series with serious pitching concerns, forced to start an inexperienced lefty against a Cardinals team that’s been excellent at home. While Los Angeles has the superior lineup on paper, Sonny Gray’s excellence at Busch Stadium should neutralize much of that advantage. The Cardinals have been a different team at home this season, and their 20-10 record in St. Louis cannot be ignored. With the pitching matchup heavily favoring the home team and the line offering near even money on the Cardinals, St. Louis presents the superior betting value in this series opener.
Score Prediction: Cardinals 5, Dodgers 3
