Chicago Cubs (29-20) vs. Miami Marlins (19-28)
When: Wednesday, May 21, 2025, 1:10 PM ET
Where: loanDepot Park, Miami, FL
TV: MARQ, FDSFL
Betting Odds
Runline: Cubs -1.5 (+121) / Marlins +1.5 (-145)
Total: 9 (Over +100, Under -120)
Money Line: Cubs -136 / Marlins +115
After exploding for 14 runs on 21 hits last night, the Cubs look to take the rubber match against a Marlins team that’s been outscored 44-28 over their last 10 games. Chicago’s bats are locked in, scoring 6.6 runs per game over their last 10, while Miami continues its season-long offensive struggles.
Sharp Money Take
The opening line of Cubs -125 has been pushed to -136, suggesting professional money supports Chicago despite their road favorite status. The total opened at 8.5 and has been nudged up to 9 with juice favoring the under, indicating sharps see value in the under despite the Cubs’ recent offensive explosion. The runline movement from +115 to +121 provides extra value for Cubs backers.
Key Matchup Analysis
Rookie Cade Horton makes just his second MLB start after impressing in his debut against the White Sox (5 IP, 3 ER). The 23-year-old former first-round pick has shown poise beyond his years and features a mid-90s fastball with sharp breaking pitches that should play well in spacious loanDepot Park.
Max Meyer has struggled mightily after a promising start, posting a 7.16 ERA in his last three outings. His command has deteriorated, and he’s leaving pitches in dangerous locations – a recipe for disaster against a Cubs lineup that ranks 1st in MLB in runs scored and just hammered out 21 hits last night.
The Cubs’ bullpen has stabilized despite Porter Hodge’s recent injury, with Drew Pomeranz (0.00 ERA in 10.1 IP) and Brad Keller (2.08 ERA) providing reliable late-inning options. Miami’s bullpen was exposed last night, allowing 13 runs after starter Ryan Weathers departed.
Situational Factors
The Cubs are 14-10 on the road this season and 7-3 in their last 10 games overall, showcasing their ability to win away from Wrigley. They’ve also won 3 of 5 against Miami this season, including last night’s 14-1 thrashing.
The Marlins are just 13-14 at home and coming off an embarrassing loss where their bullpen was completely overmatched. Fatigue could be a factor after several relievers were forced into extended duty Tuesday.
Chicago welcomed back Ian Happ yesterday from a 10-day IL stint (oblique), and rookie Matt Shaw has provided an immediate spark since his recall, going 4-for-9 with 2 RBIs in two games. This lineup is at full strength and clicking.
The early afternoon start time (1:10 PM) often favors the hitter with shadows not yet creeping across the infield. Both teams will be turning around quickly after last night’s game, but Chicago carries significant momentum.
Statistical Edges
The Cubs rank 1st in MLB in runs scored (295) and hold a substantial offensive advantage over Miami, who ranks 25th with 190 runs. Chicago’s team batting average of .269 dwarfs Miami’s .235.
Kyle Tucker (11 HR, 35 RBI), Pete Crow-Armstrong (12 HR, 41 RBI), and Seiya Suzuki (12 HR, 43 RBI) give the Cubs three legitimate power threats throughout their lineup. Miami counters with Kyle Stowers (10 HR, 30 RBI) as their only consistent threat.
The Cubs have averaged 7.8 runs in their five matchups with Miami this season, while posting a team OPS of .886 during their current 7-3 stretch. Miami has scored 3 or fewer runs in 6 of their last 10 games.
The Verdict
Take Cubs -136 (2 units). Chicago’s offensive firepower should overwhelm Meyer, who’s regressed significantly over his last three starts. The Cubs’ lineup is at full strength with Happ’s return and Shaw’s spark, while the rookie Horton has the stuff to keep Miami’s weak offense in check.
My model projects this closer to Cubs -160, making the current price excellent value. With Chicago averaging nearly 8 runs per game against Miami this season, I expect them to win comfortably as they continue their push atop the NL Central.
Secondary play: Cubs First 5 Innings -0.5 (+105). Chicago’s scored first in 8 of their last 11 games, and Meyer has allowed runs in the first three innings in each of his last four starts. Look for the Cubs to jump ahead early and never look back.
