The Chicago Cubs (38-23) look to secure a series win against the Washington Nationals (29-32) in Thursday’s rubber match at Nationals Park. After splitting the first two games, this finale pits Cubs veteran Drew Pomeranz, who hasn’t allowed a run this season, against Nationals right-hander Jake Irvin, who’s quietly been one of Washington’s most consistent starters. I’m particularly interested in this pitching matchup that features contrasting styles and career trajectories, with Pomeranz likely serving as an opener while Irvin aims to continue his surprisingly strong start to 2025.
Quick Picks:
- Best Bet: Cubs Moneyline (-145) ★★★★☆
- Top Prop: Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115) ★★★★☆
- Value Play: Under 9.5 Runs (-110) ★★★☆☆
Chicago Cubs vs Washington Nationals Betting Odds & Latest Line Movement
| Market | Chicago Cubs | Washington Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -145 | +121 |
| Run Line | -1.5 (+125) | +1.5 (-145) |
| Total | Over 9.5 (-110) | Under 9.5 (-110) |
Opening Line: Cubs -140, Total 9.5
Sharp Money Analysis: Where Pro Bettors Are Placing Their Wagers
The line movement on this game has been minimal, with the Cubs ticking up slightly from -140 to -145, suggesting steady support for the road favorites but no overwhelming sharp action. What’s more telling is the total holding firm at 9.5 despite both teams coming off a pitcher’s duel yesterday. This indicates professional bettors aren’t convinced we’ll see another low-scoring affair, likely due to Pomeranz being used as an opener rather than a traditional starter. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in the mid-70s with minimal wind, creating neutral hitting conditions that shouldn’t significantly impact scoring.
Pitching Matchup: Drew Pomeranz vs Jake Irvin – Who Has the Edge?
Chicago Cubs: Drew Pomeranz (2-0, 0.00 ERA)
- Has been perfect through 13.2 innings this season, not allowing a single earned run
- Impressive 15:3 K:BB ratio showcasing excellent command
- Elite 0.51 WHIP indicates he’s barely allowing baserunners
- Expected to serve as an opener, likely pitching only 1-2 innings
Washington Nationals: Jake Irvin (5-1, 3.93 ERA)
- Quietly having a solid season with a respectable 3.93 ERA across 73.1 innings
- Control has been decent with 47 strikeouts to 20 walks
- 1.17 WHIP shows he’s limiting baserunners effectively
- Has pitched at least 6 innings in 7 of his 12 starts this season
Advantage: While Pomeranz has been untouchable, his limited role as an opener neutralizes his impact. Irvin offers Washington stability and length, giving the Nationals a slight edge in the starting pitching department when considering the full game.
Bullpen Breakdown
The Cubs’ bullpen strategy will be crucial today with Pomeranz likely only going an inning or two. Chicago’s relief corps has been a strength this season, posting a collective 3.32 ERA (6th in MLB). Their high-leverage arms have been particularly effective, with Adbert Alzolay, Porter Hodge, and Julian Merryweather forming a reliable late-inning trio. Washington’s bullpen has been middle-of-the-pack with a 4.15 ERA (16th in MLB), but closer Kyle Finnegan has been excellent, converting 17 of 20 save opportunities. The Cubs hold a significant advantage in bullpen depth, which becomes especially important in a game where they’ll need 7+ innings from their relievers.
Key Betting Trends & Team Statistics That Matter
- Chicago is 18-12 on the road this season, demonstrating their ability to win away from Wrigley Field
- The Cubs are 34-8 when recording at least eight hits in a game
- Washington is just 14-15 at home and 13-22 in games where they allow at least one home run
- The Cubs have gone 7-3 in their last 10 games while outscoring opponents by 10 runs
- When Washington scores first, they’re a much more competitive 16-10 this season
- Chicago’s offense ranks 4th in MLB averaging 5.72 runs per game; Washington sits 20th at 4.43
Pete Crow-Armstrong: Cubs’ Five-Tool Catalyst Making MVP Push
The Cubs’ breakout star Pete Crow-Armstrong has been nothing short of sensational this season, establishing himself as one of the game’s most exciting young talents. Already with 15 home runs and 21 stolen bases, PCA is on pace to join the rare 30-30 club in his first full MLB season. His elite defense has earned him the “pitcher’s best friend” moniker from manager Craig Counsell, as evidenced by his spectacular ranging catch in left-center during yesterday’s game that robbed Alex Call of extra bases. While he went hitless last night, Crow-Armstrong has consistently bounced back from quiet games and matches up well against Irvin’s pitch mix. Look for him to be a difference-maker today as he continues his push for All-Star recognition.
Nationals Park Factor: How the Venue Influences Today’s Game
Nationals Park plays relatively neutral but has traditionally favored hitters slightly with a park factor of 1.03 for runs scored in 2025. The dimensions (335′ to left, 402′ to center, 335′ to right) offer opportunities for power hitters, particularly to the corners. With daytime temperatures expected in the mid-70s and minimal wind, conditions should be ideal for baseball. The Cubs’ power-hitting left-handers like Kyle Tucker and Michael Busch could benefit from the 370′ power alley in right-center. The playing surface is well-maintained, leading to true hops on ground balls and consistent outfield play, which should benefit the Cubs’ superior defense.
Expert Prediction & Best Bets for Cubs-Nationals Showdown
Primary Play: Chicago Cubs Moneyline (-145)
I’m backing the Cubs to take the rubber match despite Pomeranz being limited to opener duties. Chicago’s significant offensive advantage (5.72 vs. 4.43 runs per game) and superior bullpen depth make them the right side, even at -145. The Cubs’ 18-12 road record shows they’re comfortable away from Wrigley, and their 7-3 mark in their last 10 games indicates they’re playing well right now. Washington’s home mediocrity (14-15) further supports this play. I’d back the Cubs up to -155.
Strong Value Play: Under 9.5 Runs (-110)
Despite both teams employing a different pitching approach than yesterday’s 2-0 affair, I still see value on the under. Irvin has been reliable for Washington, and the Cubs’ bullpen has consistently performed well this season. Chicago’s offense is potent, but they’re also disciplined enough not to force things against a pitcher who doesn’t surrender many walks. Washington’s below-average offense (4.43 runs per game) should struggle against the Cubs’ quality relief arms, and after being shut out yesterday, they may press at the plate. This feels like a 5-3 or 6-3 type of game.
Worth Considering: Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115)
Crow-Armstrong has been a catalyst for the Cubs offense all season, and I expect him to bounce back after going hitless yesterday. He’s demonstrated impressive power (15 HRs) and excels at collecting extra-base hits (15 doubles, 21 stolen bases). Irvin’s tendency to work in the strike zone gives PCA opportunities to drive the ball, and at +115, there’s value in backing one of the NL’s most dynamic young stars to collect at least a double or multiple singles.
Player Props Worth Targeting in Today’s Matchup
| Player | Prop | Odds | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | Over 1.5 Total Bases | +115 | ★★★★☆ |
| Kyle Tucker (CHC) | To Record an RBI | +140 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Jake Irvin (WAS) | Under 5.5 Strikeouts | -130 | ★★★★☆ |
| James Wood (WAS) | Over 0.5 Runs Scored | +110 | ★★★☆☆ |
Final Thoughts: Cubs’ Offensive Firepower Should Overcome Bullpen Game Challenges
While bullpen games always introduce uncertainty, the Cubs’ offensive superiority and deeper relief corps give them a significant edge in this series finale. Chicago’s lineup features multiple All-Star candidates, including MVP contender Pete Crow-Armstrong, who should produce enough runs to overcome Washington’s home-field advantage. I expect Irvin to keep the Nationals competitive early, but the Cubs’ quality bullpen arms should limit Washington’s scoring opportunities while their offense gradually builds a lead. The loss of Kyle Tucker to finger discomfort is concerning, but Chicago’s lineup depth should compensate. With the Cubs looking to maintain their five-game lead in the NL Central, they’ll approach this game with appropriate urgency and secure the series win.
Score Prediction: Chicago Cubs 5, Washington Nationals 3
