Cleveland Guardians (28-17) vs. Minnesota Twins (24-23)
When: Wednesday, May 21, 2025, 1:10 PM ET
Where: Target Field, Minneapolis, MN
TV: Bally Sports Great Lakes
Betting Odds
Runline: Twins -1.5 (+140) / Guardians +1.5 (-160)
Total: 8 (Over -110, Under -110)
Money Line: Twins -135 / Guardians +125
The weather has been the biggest winner in this series so far, with Monday’s opener suspended in the 4th inning and Tuesday’s action completely washed out. The teams now face a condensed schedule with the suspended game resuming Wednesday afternoon (Twins leading 2-1) followed by the regularly scheduled contest approximately 30 minutes after completion.
Sharp Money Take
After opening with the Twins at -120, money has consistently pushed Minnesota to -135 despite Cleveland’s superior record. This line movement signals professional respect for the Twins’ home-field advantage and probable starter Joe Ryan (4-2, 2.42 ERA). The total opened at 8.5 but has been bet down to 8 despite decent hitting conditions expected, indicating sharp money believes pitching will dominate.
Key Matchup Analysis
When the suspended game resumes, Cleveland will need to overcome a 2-1 deficit with Minnesota already having plated two runs against Logan Allen. The Guardians’ bullpen has been middle-of-the-pack with a 3.82 ERA this season, though their depth will be tested with the potential for extended relief work across multiple games.
For the scheduled contest, Tanner Bibee (3-4, 4.06 ERA) gets the nod for Cleveland against Minnesota’s Joe Ryan (4-2, 2.42 ERA). Ryan holds a significant edge with his 0.96 WHIP compared to Bibee’s 1.38. Ryan has been particularly dominant at home, posting a 1.87 ERA in four Target Field starts while holding opponents to a 2-for-19 mark with runners in scoring position.
Situational Factors
The Guardians are in a concerning stretch, having lost 4 of their last 6 and trending in the wrong direction in the AL Central race. Their top prospect Travis Bazzana just received devastating news about an oblique strain that will sideline him 8-10 weeks, further dampening organizational momentum.
With David Fry still working through rehab in Double-A Akron, Cleveland’s lineup lacks the power punch they expected to have by this point in the season. They sorely miss his versatility and bat, particularly after he was a postseason hero last October.
Weather concerns have finally cleared, with temperatures expected around 68 degrees with minimal wind, creating ideal playing conditions after two days of rain delays and cancellations.
Statistical Edges
The Twins’ offense has quietly surged in May, averaging 5.8 runs per game at home this month (top 5 in MLB). Meanwhile, Cleveland’s starting rotation beyond Bibee has struggled, posting a 5.12 ERA over their last 12 games.
Minnesota holds a 7-3 record in their last 10 home games against Cleveland dating back to last season. Joe Ryan has been exceptional against current Guardians hitters, holding them to a combined .198 batting average and .564 OPS across 86 plate appearances.
Cleveland’s offensive approach compounds their problems—they rank 28th in MLB in home runs this season, limiting their ability to produce quick scoring bursts, which becomes problematic when playing from behind as they will be in the suspended game.
The Verdict
Play Twins ML (-135) for 2 units in the regularly scheduled game. The combination of Joe Ryan’s home dominance and Cleveland’s offensive struggles makes Minnesota the clear value despite the juice. The Guardians’ recent downward trend coupled with their inability to generate consistent power gives Ryan a significant edge.
For a secondary play, look at Under 8 (-110) in the regularly scheduled contest. Ryan’s excellence at home and Cleveland’s light-hitting approach should keep scoring limited. I’m expecting something like a 4-2 Twins victory, with Ryan going 6+ innings while limiting Cleveland to just one earned run.
The suspended game presents too many variables with the pitching situation, making it a stay-away from a betting perspective. If forced to choose, I’d lean toward Minnesota closing out their early 2-1 lead, but without a clear picture of bullpen usage, that’s more speculation than handicapping.
