New York Mets vs. Boston Red Sox: MLB Betting Preview
Date & Time: Monday, May 19th | 6:45 PM ET
Location: Fenway Park, Boston, Massachusetts
TV Coverage: NESN
Weather: Broken clouds, temperatures in the low 60s
Money Line: Mets -142 / Red Sox +120
Run Line: Mets -1.5 / Red Sox +1.5
Total: 9 runs (Over -112 / Under -107)
Team Standings & Current Form
New York Mets
- Record: 29-18
- Division Standing: 1st in NL East, 0.5 games ahead of Phillies
- Last 10 Games: 6-4
- Home/Road Split: 17-5 home, 12-13 road
- Series Record: 9-5-1
Boston Red Sox
- Record: 23-25
- Division Standing: 5 games behind Yankees in AL East
- Recent Series: Lost 2 of 3 vs. Braves
- Home/Road Split: 12-11 home, 11-14 road
- Series Record: 7-8
Recent Game Recap
New York Mets
The Mets are looking to bounce back after closing out their series against the Yankees with an 8-2 loss. They were +143 underdogs on the road. David Peterson started and took the loss, pitching 6 innings and giving up 6 earned runs on 7 hits. Ryne Stanek struggled in relief, allowing 6 earned runs in just 1/3 of an inning.
Boston Red Sox
Boston is coming off a 10-4 loss to the Braves, where they were slight underdogs at +105. The game unraveled in the 4th inning when the Braves scored 7 runs. Brayan Bello took the loss, going 4 1/3 innings and allowing 7 earned runs. Rafael Devers was a bright spot, going 2-for-4 with a home run and 4 RBIs.
Starting Pitchers Breakdown
Kodai Senga (Mets)
- Season Record: 4-2
- ERA: 1.01
- WHIP: 1.17
- Home/Road Split: 0.56 ERA at home, 1.65 ERA on road
- Last Start: No-decision vs. Pirates, 5 2/3 innings, 1 earned run
- Recent Form: Two straight wins before last start
Hunter Dobbins (Red Sox)
- Season Record: 1-0 with 2 no-decisions
- Making his 3rd start of the season
- First Start: 6 innings, got the win
- Last Start: 5 innings, 5 earned runs
Offensive Analysis
New York Mets Key Performers
- Team Scoring: 4.5 runs per game (12th in MLB), 4.6 runs on road
- Team Rankings: 9th in home runs, 7th in on-base percentage
- Pete Alonso: .301 BA, 9 HR (T-7th in MLB), team-high 37 RBIs
- Francisco Lindor: .283 BA, 9 HR (T-7th in MLB)
- Juan Soto: .246 BA, 8 HR
- Brandon Nimmo: .225 BA, 8 HR
Boston Red Sox Key Performers
- Team Scoring: 4.9 runs per game (6th in MLB), 5.2 runs at home
- Team Rankings: 6th in home runs, 7th in batting average (.254), .423 SLG
- Rafael Devers: .289 BA, 9 HR, 14-for-30 with 3 HR and 12 RBIs in last 8 games
- Alex Bregman: .303 BA, 11 HR
- Wilyer Abreu: .265 BA, 11 HR
Betting Trends
New York Mets
- Straight Up: 29-18
- Over/Under: 17-28
- Run Line: 29-18
- As Favorite: Has not played as favorite this season
Boston Red Sox
- Straight Up: 23-25
- Over/Under: 24-22
- Run Line: 23-25
- As Home Underdog: 12-11
- As Favorite: Has not played as favorite this season
Analysis & Prediction
This interleague matchup features two teams coming off series losses, both looking to get back on track. The pitching matchup heavily favors the Mets, with Kodai Senga sporting an impressive 1.01 ERA against Hunter Dobbins making just his third MLB start. While Boston’s offense has been more productive overall (4.9 runs per game vs. New York’s 4.5), Senga’s dominance (particularly his 0.56 home ERA) should limit the Red Sox production.
The Mets’ offense features several power threats in Alonso, Lindor, Soto, and Nimmo who could take advantage of the inexperienced Dobbins, who surrendered 5 earned runs in his last outing. Though the Red Sox have been strong at home (5.2 runs per game), they’ll be facing one of the league’s most effective pitchers in Senga.
Betting Pick
New York Mets Money Line (-142)
Kodai Senga’s outstanding performance this season gives the Mets a significant edge in this matchup against the less experienced Hunter Dobbins. With the Mets looking to maintain their slim lead in the NL East and the Red Sox struggling recently, there’s good value in taking New York on the money line.
