Boston Red Sox vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction & Best Bets | Elite Lefty Crochet Gives BoSox Edge at American Family Field
Last Updated: May 26, 2025, 10:30 AM ET
The Boston Red Sox (27-28) hit the road to face the Milwaukee Brewers (26-28) at American Family Field for the first matchup of a three-game interleague series. This Memorial Day afternoon showdown features an intriguing pitching matchup between Red Sox lefty Garrett Crochet and Brewers right-hander Chad Patrick. With Boston looking to bounce back after a disappointing homestand and Milwaukee coming off a narrow victory against Pittsburgh, this contest offers several compelling betting angles.
Quick Picks:
– Best Bet: Red Sox ML (-157) ★★★★☆
– Top Prop: Garrett Crochet Over 8.5 Strikeouts (+110) ★★★☆☆
– Value Play: Under 7.5 Runs (-105) ★★★★☆
Boston Red Sox vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Odds & Latest Line Movement
| Market | Boston Red Sox | Milwaukee Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -157 | +132 |
| Run Line | -1.5 (+115) | +1.5 (-135) |
| Total | Over 7.5 (-115) | Under 7.5 (-105) |
Opening Line: Red Sox -145, Total 7.5
Sharp Money Analysis: Where Pro Bettors Are Placing Their Wagers
Professional money has been steadily coming in on the Red Sox side, pushing the line from -145 up to -157. This line movement indicates sharp bettors are backing Boston despite their mediocre 11-14 road record. The total has held steady at 7.5, suggesting no strong opinion from professional gamblers on the over/under, though there’s been a slight adjustment on the under, now offering better value at -105.
Pitching Matchup: Garrett Crochet vs Chad Patrick – Who Has the Edge?
Boston Red Sox: Garrett Crochet (4-3, 1.98 ERA)
- 68.1 innings pitched with a microscopic 1.98 ERA
- 78 strikeouts against 22 walks (3.55 K/BB ratio)
- 1.07 WHIP showing elite command
- Holding opponents to a .223 batting average
- Coming off a dominant 11-strikeout performance against Atlanta
Milwaukee Brewers: Chad Patrick (2-4, 3.23 ERA)
- 53 innings pitched with a respectable 3.23 ERA
- 45 strikeouts against 16 walks (2.81 K/BB ratio)
- 1.26 WHIP shows solid but not elite command
- Better at home (2.70 ERA) than on the road (3.89 ERA)
- Has allowed 3+ runs in three of his last four starts
Advantage: Boston Red Sox. Crochet has been one of baseball’s most electric pitchers this season, and his elite strikeout ability gives him a significant edge over the solid but unspectacular Patrick.
Bullpen Breakdown
Boston’s bullpen has been middle-of-the-pack this season with a 3.85 ERA (14th in MLB), but they’ve been taxed during their recent homestand. Key relievers like Justin Slaten and Kenley Jansen should be available after a day off. Milwaukee’s relief corps ranks slightly better at 3.65 ERA (11th in MLB) and has been a strength all season. The Brewers’ bullpen threw three innings in yesterday’s win against Pittsburgh, but most key arms should be fresh for today’s contest.
Key Betting Trends & Team Statistics That Matter
- Boston is 5-5 in their last 10 games and just 11-14 on the road this season
- The Red Sox are 8-3 in Garrett Crochet’s starts this season
- Milwaukee is 15-10 at home but just 5-5 in their last 10 games overall
- The Brewers are 19-5 when they out-hit their opponents
- The under is 6-2 in Crochet’s last 8 road starts
- Jarren Duran is hitting .438 (14-for-32) over his last 8 games for Boston
- Rhys Hoskins leads the Brewers with a .288 average and 7 home runs
Duran’s Hot Streak: Can Boston’s Leadoff Man Stay Locked In?
Jarren Duran has been scorching hot for the Red Sox, collecting four hits in Sunday’s loss to Baltimore. The dynamic leadoff man is now 14-for-32 (.438) over his last eight games and has been the catalyst for Boston’s offense. His ability to set the table against Chad Patrick will be crucial for the Red Sox, who rank fifth in MLB with a .425 team slugging percentage. With Duran’s speed and power combination, he presents a significant challenge for the Brewers’ defense.
American Family Field Factor: How the Venue Influences Today’s Game
American Family Field (formerly Miller Park) remains one of baseball’s more hitter-friendly environments, particularly for power hitters. The park has averaged 1.09 home runs per game this season, slightly above league average. However, day games at this venue tend to favor pitchers more than night contests, as the shadows can make it difficult for hitters to pick up breaking pitches. With today’s 2:10 PM local start time, expect the lighting conditions to benefit the pitchers, especially someone with Crochet’s elite arsenal.
Expert Prediction & Best Bets for Red Sox-Brewers Showdown
Primary Play: Red Sox Moneyline (-157)
While I don’t love laying this kind of juice on the road, Garrett Crochet’s dominance this season makes Boston the clear play. The lefty has been one of baseball’s most consistent starters with his 1.98 ERA and elite strikeout numbers. Chad Patrick has been serviceable for Milwaukee, but there’s a significant talent gap between these two starters. The Red Sox offense, led by the red-hot Jarren Duran, should provide enough run support for Crochet to secure a victory.
Strong Value Play: Under 7.5 Runs (-105)
This total feels a touch high with Crochet on the mound. The Red Sox lefty has allowed two or fewer runs in seven of his last eight starts, and his strikeout ability can neutralize Milwaukee’s lineup. While the Brewers have the home-field advantage, their offense ranks in the bottom half of the league in most categories. Patrick is no pushover either, with a solid 3.23 ERA. Add in the day game shadows at American Family Field, and we have a recipe for a lower-scoring affair.
Worth Considering: Garrett Crochet Over 8.5 Strikeouts (+110)
Crochet has been a strikeout machine this season, averaging over 10 K’s per nine innings. The Brewers have the sixth-highest strikeout rate in the National League at 8.9 per game. In his last outing, Crochet fanned 11 batters, and he’s recorded at least 9 strikeouts in five of his 11 starts this season. At plus money, there’s solid value on the over for his strikeout prop.
Player Props Worth Targeting in Today’s Matchup
| Player | Prop | Odds | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Crochet (BOS) | Over 8.5 Strikeouts | +110 | ★★★★☆ |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | Over 1.5 Total Bases | -115 | ★★★★☆ |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | To Record a Hit | -175 | ★★★☆☆ |
| William Contreras (MIL) | Under 1.5 Hits | -165 | ★★★☆☆ |
Final Thoughts: Crochet’s Dominance Should Be The Difference
Boston’s 5-5 homestand was disappointing, but they have an excellent opportunity to start their road trip with a win behind their ace. Garrett Crochet has established himself as a legitimate Cy Young contender in the American League, and his elite strikeout ability should neutralize the Brewers’ lineup. Milwaukee has been solid at home (15-10), but they’ll need a stellar performance from Chad Patrick to keep pace with Boston.
The loss of Alex Bregman to injury hurts the Red Sox lineup, but the emergence of top prospect Marcelo Mayer (who collected his first two MLB hits yesterday) and the hot streak from Jarren Duran should help offset that absence. Look for Boston to manufacture enough runs against Patrick while Crochet handles the rest.
Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox 4, Milwaukee Brewers 2
