Houston Astros (25-22) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (21-26)
When: Tuesday, May 20, 2025, 7:05 PM ET
Where: George M. Steinbrenner Field, Tampa, FL
TV: SCHN, FDSNSUN
Betting Odds
Runline: Astros -1.5 (+195) / Rays +1.5 (-235)
Total: 9.0 (Over -115, Under -105)
Money Line: Astros -112 / Rays -104
The Astros opened this series with a 4-3 victory and continue dominating their matchups with Tampa Bay, winning 12 of their last 15 at the Trop. Today’s pitching matchup features Brandon Walter making his Astros debut against Zack Littell, who’s struggled to maintain consistency this season.
Sharp Money Take
Despite the public often backing the Astros in this matchup historically, the line has stayed tight, opening with Houston as -115 favorites before settling around -112. This indicates respect for Tampa’s home-field advantage, but doesn’t show significant sharp involvement either way. The total opened at 8.5 before being pushed to 9, suggesting some professional money anticipates scoring despite these teams having gone under in 12 of their last 15 meetings.
Key Matchup Analysis
Brandon Walter brings intrigue to Houston’s rotation after dominating at Triple-A Sugar Land (2.27 ERA, 0.701 WHIP, 34K/7BB in 35.2 innings). His major league experience is limited to a rough stint with Boston in 2023 (6.26 ERA), but his command improvements this season suggest he’s ready for another shot.
Zack Littell has been inconsistent for Tampa Bay, posting a 4.31 ERA and 1.29 WHIP across 48.1 innings. His last outing against Toronto was solid (7.1 IP, 3 ER), but Houston’s lineup presents different challenges, particularly with Isaac Paredes heating up (.283/.421/.543 over the last 15 days).
The significant edge comes in the bullpen comparison. Houston’s relief corps has developed into baseball’s best, with Josh Hader (12 saves) anchoring a unit that’s dominated late innings. Tampa’s bullpen has been middling, allowing the Astros to steal Monday’s game on Jake Meyers’ late home run.
Situational Factors
The Astros have been a solid road team this season while Tampa Bay has struggled mightily at home, going just 11-18 at Steinbrenner Field. This stark home/road split for the Rays (22% difference in winning percentage) creates an exploitable situation favoring Houston.
Jose Altuve’s slump (1-for-22 over his last six games) provides some concern, but rookie Cam Smith has been hot, hitting safely in four straight (6-for-13) and providing offensive support lower in the lineup.
Tampa Bay’s offensive struggles have been particularly pronounced at home, where they’ve scored three or fewer runs in 16 of 29 games, going a dreadful 2-14 in those contests. Even with Chandler Simpson providing spark on the basepaths, their lack of clutch hitting continues to plague them.
Statistical Edges
The Rays have failed to cover the run line in three straight home games, continuing a troubling pattern for Tampa backers. Meanwhile, Houston pitchers have held Tampa to 3.0 runs per game over their last 12 matchups, explaining why 12 of the last 15 head-to-head meetings have stayed under the total.
Walter’s Triple-A performance includes a 0.701 WHIP and 8.6 K/9 rate, both significant improvements over his 2023 MLB metrics. His ground ball tendency should play well at Steinbrenner Field.
Tampa’s offense has particularly struggled against left-handed pitching, batting just .238 with a .675 OPS (24th MLB) this season, setting up favorably for the southpaw Walter.
The Verdict
I’m backing the Astros moneyline at -112 (2 units). The combination of Tampa’s home struggles, Houston’s dominant bullpen, and the Astros’ historical success in this matchup creates strong value. Walter doesn’t need to be perfect – he just needs to keep the game close for 5-6 innings before handing it to Houston’s elite relief corps.
For a secondary play, I like Under 9 runs (1 unit). Twelve of the last 15 Astros-Rays matchups have stayed under, and I expect Walter to handle Tampa’s struggling lineup effectively enough. The Rays’ offensive woes at home make this total appear inflated by a half-run.
Don’t overthink this spot – the Astros own the Rays at Steinbrenner Field, and there’s nothing in the pitching matchup to suggest that changes tonight.
